Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Sunday - September 29, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (5/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/2)-(5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/2)-(4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
ARP-2   WIN (4/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (4/3)-(4/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-3   WIN (2/3/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/6)-(2/3/6)-(2/3/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (2/3/6)-(1/5/3)-(5/7/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-4   WIN (1/5/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/3)-(1/5/3)-(1/5/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-5   WIN (5/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/7/3)-(5/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/7/3)-(5/7/3)-(5/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-7   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/5/2)-(1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/29/2024 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($17K) 2 ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING OF SWING Sep13 Aug17 Jul22 Jun28   (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 117 3.50    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SHE'S GIFTED by FLATTER)
2  TIPSY TIGER         (rushton stacy)CARDOSO DAVID 120 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by MITOLE out of SMILING KITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
3  NAUGHTY WORDS         (rushton s)IRONEYES R 115 5.00    
  (by EAGLE out of CHERRY PICKER by CAPE BLANCO)
4  BOTTLE CAPS Sep13 Aug25 Jul21 Jul07 Jun29 (williams dewey)RAMOS B 120 5.00 25% 2.90    
  (by DADS CAPS out of AWESOME FOREVER by AWESOME AGAIN)
5  KOSARI         (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 117 2.50 32% 2.20    
  (by AUDIBLE out of CONJURESS by INDIAN CHARLIE)
6  JBA DADDY'S ANCHOR Sep13 Jul20 Jun29     (alire ran)MCNEIL BRYAN 120 8.00    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of MAUI MOON by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
 
ARP-2   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  CRIMSON LADY Sep08 Aug11 Aug04 Jul21 Jul07 (scudder ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.50    
2  RIGHT OF REFUSAL Aug24 Aug04 Jul20 Jun29 Jun22 (thompson )IRONEYES R 119 6.00    
3  STOLEN HALO Sep07 Aug24 Jul14 Jun16 Jun02 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50 17% 4.80    
4  DOLLY DIMPLE Sep06 Aug17 Jul20 Jun23 Jun08 (thompson grady)RAMOS B 124 4.00 53% 0.90    
5  NORA'S LEGACY Sep11 May14 Apr12 Mar29 Mar01 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50    
 
ARP-3   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.6K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SMILING RENEGADE Sep07 Aug31 Jul27 Jul14 Jun14 (ibanez)ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 124 8.00    
2  WINZE Aug03 Jul07 Jun13 May25 Apr13 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.50 35% 1.90    
3  UNKNOWN CALLER Sep15 Sep01 Aug23 Aug04 Jul27 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 122 5.00 15% 5.50    
SCR  BETH'SWICKEDSMACK Sep28 Sep16 Aug31 Jun15 May31 (dieter dalton)RAMOS B 124 2.50    
5  HAUGHTY KITTY Sep21 Aug11 Jul21 Jul07 Jun23 (ortega jo)IRONEYES R 119 6.00    
6  MIRAGE CODE Aug04 Jul14 Jun15 May10 Apr21 (childs russe)GONZALEZ PEDRO 122 10.00 7% 13.40    
7  LADY ATHENA Sep06 Aug19 Jul16 Jul06 Jun22 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 4.50    
 
ARP-4   09/29/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($17.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILVER LIGHTENING Sep07 Aug18 Jul28 Aug27 Aug17 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 41% 1.50    
2  SMOOCHING Sep07 Aug04 Jun25 May31   (kenney ryan)CARDOSO DAVID 122 3.50    
3  SNUGGLE BUNNY Aug30 Jul08 Jun24 Jun02 Sep09 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  FLATTER ME ZEN Sep13 Aug04 May04 Apr02 Mar18 (childs ru)IRONEYES R 119 4.50    
5  DONNA LIRICA Sep20 Sep08 Sep01 Aug17 Aug11 (ibanez alberto)RAMOS B 124 8.00 28% 2.50    
 
ARP-5   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OUR CLOVER GAL Sep15 Sep08 May17 Apr27 Apr13 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 124 3.50    
2  GUARDING ELK CAMP Sep07 Aug31 Aug17 Aug03 Jul21 (leon alexis)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50    
3  MELODY ROSE Aug11 Aug04 Jun23 Jun08 Feb16 (scudder r)IRONEYES R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  INTO CLASSIC Sep08 Jun26 Aug20 Aug06 Jul15 (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.00    
5  LAYAWAY Sep14 Aug23 Aug03 Jul21 Jun30 (thompson grady)RAMOS B 124 3.00 36% 1.70    
6  CRESSONS LIL CHARM Jul31 Jul07 Jun22 Jun09 May31 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 5.00    
7  GRACIE'S A TIGER Sep08 Aug04 Jul14 Jun16 Apr25 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00 14% 6.30    
 
ARP-7   09/29/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($18.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ATHENS MOON Sep13 Aug14 Jul23 Mar23 Mar03 (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 124 2.50 40% 1.50    
2  FREEDOM FLASH Sep13 Sep02 Aug24 Aug16 Jul28 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
3  LETS ROCK N STROLL Sep09 Aug31 Aug12 Jul13 Jun14 (dieter da)IRONEYES R 119 8.00    
4  RED FROST Sep08 Aug11 Aug03 Jun09 May11 (long vaugh)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 1.00    
5  KAE GAE Sep06 Aug10 Jul27 Jul13 Jun23 (long vaughn)CARDOSO DAVID 122 3.00 25% 3.00    
SCR  SIR ANGUS Aug23 Jun22       (dieter dalton)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.