Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Sweetwater Downs
Saturday - September 30, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
SWF-5   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
SWF-6   WIN (2/7/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/7/6)-(2/7/6)-(2/7/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
SWF-7   WIN (8/7/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/7/3)-(8/7/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/7/3)-(8/7/3)-(8/7/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
SWF-8   WIN (4/3/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/6/1)-(4/3/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/6/1)-(4/3/6/1)-(4/3/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
SWF-5   09/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($7.9K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TERRYS ENCOUNTER Jul01 Jun18 Jun04     (scudder j)RAMOS MANUEL 126 4.00    
2  IMAMONEYMAKER Sep17 Sep10 Aug26 Jul01 Jun10 (mitchell r)GAMEZ M 124 4.50    
3  MISCHIEVOUS EMMA Sep17 Sep02 Aug26 Aug05 Jul30 (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL 126 3.00 25% 3.00    
4  PRINCESS AMANDA Sep02 Jul08 Jun18 Jul11   (dominguez joseph)LUSK TYSON 126 3.50 18% 4.60    
5  MORE THAN PEGASUS Aug26 Jul16 Jun18 Mar19   (mitchell )DE TORRE 126 4.50    
6  BIRDEAUX Sep09 Sep02 Aug18 Jul30 Jul15 (hadley to)KELLENBERGER KODY 124 2.50 37% 1.70    
 
SWF-6   09/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($6.9K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SCHEELITE Aug19 Aug06 Oct02     (hansen l)RAMOS MANUEL 121 8.00    
  (by LAUGH TRACK out of FLOWERSINTHEALLEY by FLOWER ALLEY)
2  LOW KEY NATION Sep08 Aug27 Aug19 Jul30 Jul15 (tsosie te)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 5.00 40% 1.50    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of SAMANTHA MARIE by HOOPER)
3  GRONKSKY Sep10 Jul30 Jul08 Jun25   (mitchell r)GAMEZ M 124 4.50    
  (by VRONSKY out of TIZ ZOE CEE by TIZBUD)
SCR  PRAIRIE SONG Sep08 Aug27       (graber jessi)CARILLO DANIEL 121 10.00    
  (by ONEBADSHARK out of DANIELLES WARFISH by SPINELESSJELLYFISH)
5  PADDYS FOUR ROSES Sep10 Sep02 Jun17 Jun04   (hall dru)LUSK TYSON 126 4.00    
  (by TROJAN NATION out of GOT ROSES by NIGHT CEREMONY)
6  FANCY GYPSY JU Sep10 Aug05 Jul22 Jul08 Jun24 (goodrich colby)VIRGEN JESUS 121 6.00 11% 8.00    
  (by MISREMEMBERED out of GYPSY JU JU by LUCKY PULPIT)
7  TRIBAL LEADER Sep02 Aug06       (christoffers)AGUILAR DANIEL 121 3.50 15% 5.70    
  (by INDIAN BRUT out of TRIBAL HEADDRESS by SLEW'S TIZNOW)
SCR  ILLUSIONED Feb25 Feb17 Jan13 Dec18 Nov14 (ibanez albert)JIMENEZ DAVID 126 10.00    
  (by MASTERY out of ISMENE by TRIBAL RULE)
SCR  MONGOLIAN SHOP         (lusk travis)PADILLA ANSELMO 124 10.00    
  (by BODEMEISTER out of WINDOW SHOPPER by DYNAFORMER)
SCR  DIABLOS MOON Sep09 Aug27 Jul30 Jun18 Jun04 (graber jessic)JIMENEZ DAVID 126 6.00    
  (by POINT DEFIANCE out of SPECTACULAR VOW by BROKEN VOW)
 
SWF-7   09/30/2023 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($2.5K) Purse ($7.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  GABO'S MACONDO Sep16 Sep03 Aug20 Aug05 Jul22 (klatt melis)PADILLA ANSELMO 126 4.00    
2  FLY FIRST CLASS Sep16 Sep10 Sep02 Aug20 Aug06 (greene paul)GARNETT G 126 10.00    
3  ROCKETRINGO Aug27 Jul23 Jul15 Jun25 Sep05 (ness john)GAMEZ M 126 6.00 5% 19.00    
4  GOLD STAR STUDENT Sep09 Aug18 Jul22 Jun16 May27 (tsosie te)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 5.00    
5  STREET N SOUR Sep16 Sep08 Aug27 Aug06 Jul15 (simpson lynn)CARILLO DANIEL 126 8.00    
6  LOVENSEEK Aug06 Jul29 Jul15 Jun16 Jun03 (bunn shaw)BOBROFF JACQUELYN 126 5.00    
7  ROUGH PASSAGE Sep16 Aug27 Aug12 Jul29 Jul09 (lusk travis)LUSK TYSON 126 4.50 27% 2.70    
8  CHARLIE MO Sep09 Sep03 Aug19 Aug06 Jul09 (dominguez c)DOMINGUEZ URIEL 126 3.50 51% 1.00    
SCR  WILLY B Sep16 Sep02 Aug25 Aug06 Jul09 (gibbs tyler)LARSEN S 126 8.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT DRAMA Sep08 Sep01 May19 May06 Apr02 (tsosie te)KELLENBERGER KODY 126 8.00    
 
SWF-8   09/30/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($8.3K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOON HOLLOW Sep10 Sep02 Aug05 Jul30 Jul24 (nielsen rodne)JUAREZ BRAYAN 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  IN THE FAST LANE Sep17 Sep08 Aug26 Aug05 Jul22 (simpson lynn)LUSK TYSON 121 5.00    
3  FLIGHT SPEED Sep16 Aug05 Jul22 Jul15 Jul02 (garfias j)BOBROFF JACQUELYN 126 4.50 23% 3.40    
4  CHAYS CURLIN CANDY Sep10 Sep02 Jul30 Jul08 Jun25 (giles chad)CARILLO DANIEL 123 4.00 31% 2.30    
5  INDIAS BIG RED Sep17 Sep10 Aug27 Aug05 Jul22 (martin fr)KELLENBERGER KODY 121 8.00    
6  RED GARNET Sep16 Aug26 Aug05 Jul22 Jul15 (dominguez c)DOMINGUEZ URIEL 124 3.50 19% 4.20    
SCR  SHES A KILLA QUEEN Jul15 Apr25 Apr10 Mar18 Mar05 (robles rica)PADILLA ANSELMO 121 10.00    
8  VINCE'S CORNER Sep16 Sep03 Sep01 Aug19 Jul30 (mitchell r)GAMEZ M 124 6.00    
SCR  WE WANT ANOTHER Sep17 Sep09 Sep01 Aug18 Jul30 (tsosie te)KELLENBERGER KODY 121 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.