Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Saturday - September 28, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (6/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/5/4)-(6/5/4)-(6/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/5/4)-(4/6/5) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
ARP-2   WIN (4/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/6/5)-(4/6/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/6/5)-(4/6/5)-(4/6/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
ARP-3   WIN (3/4/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/5)-(3/4/5)-(3/4/5) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/4/5)-(6/3/4)-(2/5) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-4   WIN (6/3/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/3/4)-(6/3/4)-(6/3/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (6/3/4)-(2/5)-(1/7/4/8) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
ARP-5   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-6   WIN (1/7/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/7/4/8)-(1/7/4/8) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/7/4/8)-(1/7/4/8)-(1/7/4/8) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/28/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($17K) 2 F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STOLEN FUNDS Sep08         (rushton stet)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 10.00    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of LADY POSSE by POSSE)
2  ALLIYAS CREATION Sep08 Aug11 Jun29     (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 119 3.50    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of ALLIYA'S STORY by SUPER SAVER)
SCR  BEAUTIFUL BREEZE Sep12         (kenney ryan)RAMOS B 122 8.00    
  (by UNIFIED out of WIND GUST by DYNAFORMER)
4  ZIP IT KAREN Sep22 Aug25 Aug11 Jul20   (scudder j)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by FIVE SEASONS out of ASTORMISLAUNCHED by STORM CREEK)
5  SPORTING STAR         (williams )IRONEYES R 117 10.00 24% 3.20    
  (by SPORTING CHANCE out of HAMMETT STAR by REVERSAL)
6  GOLDEN BEAUTY Sep08 Aug11       (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 119 2.50 39% 1.60    
  (by GOLDENCENTS out of JUST FUNNIN' YA by CITY ZIP)
7  ADETERMINEDMOM Aug25 Aug02 Jul07 Jun17   (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 122 4.50    
  (by COURT VISION out of CHELSEA'S LINCOLN by MULDOON)
 
ARP-2   09/28/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  AFLEET DIVINE Apr19 Mar22 Mar01 Nov29 Nov08 (rushton stet)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.50    
2  BIG MARY Aug03         (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 8.00    
3  TIZ A STRATEGY Sep15 Aug25 Jul29 Jul14 Jun02 (lemburg mark)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50    
4  RAINBOWS ON ICE Jul27 Jun16 May19 Apr20 Apr06 (rust terr)IRONEYES R 117 6.00 37% 1.70    
5  KARMA DE VILLE Jun15 May02 Mar25 Jul08   (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  PRINCESS VANELLOPE Sep15 Aug31 Aug25 Jul28 Jul11 (ramaekers eric)RAMOS B 122 3.50 26% 2.80    
 
ARP-3   09/28/2024 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ETHAN Aug10 Jul20 Jun30 May04 Mar29 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 119 6.00    
2  NORTHWIND Sep06 Aug10 Jul31 Jul06 Jun28 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50    
3  NON TOXIC Sep13 Aug04 Jun22 May11 Nov11 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 2.50 58% 0.70    
4  MEET GEORGE JETSON Jun08 May27 Apr27 Apr19 Apr07 (rushton temple)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 10% 8.80    
5  CHICKEN N BISCUIT Oct22 Oct07 Sep30 Sep11 Aug26 (esquibel ma)VORRATH VALENTE 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  TAPIT DOWN Sep06 Jun13 May17 Apr19 Mar22 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 4.50    
 
ARP-4   09/28/2024 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OAKES CROSSING Sep14 May05 Apr21 Feb29 Feb08 (long vaughn)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 3.50    
SCR  REVENIR Sep07 Aug25 Aug10 Jul28 Jul13 (ibanez alber)GONZALEZ PEDRO 124 10.00    
3  OPTIMAL Sep06 Jun30 Jun22 Jun02 May04 (rushton temple)HAAR NATHAN 124 8.00 25% 3.00    
4  DANCE FOR RANSOM Sep13 Jul27 Jul20 Jul13 Jul29 (schindler je)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
5  HAIL STATE Jul17 Jun25 Jun03 Mar30 Mar15 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.00    
6  BLUE SKYE JADE Sep14 Sep02 Aug03 Jul13 Jun29 (williams dewey)RAMOS B 124 2.50 45% 1.20    
 
ARP-5   09/28/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POND Aug31 Aug16 Jul21 Jun08 May18 (thompson grady)MCNEIL BRYAN 122 6.00    
2  CAT GAMER Sep06 Aug11 Jul20 Dec26 Oct29 (rust terr)IRONEYES R 119 4.50 50% 1.00    
SCR  CHERRY RIVER Sep15 Aug25 Aug08     (oliver kim)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 2.00    
4  ARMAVIR Sep06 Jul14 Jun01 May11 Apr20 (thompson grady)RAMOS B 124 3.50    
5  EZ FITZ Sep07 Aug11 Jul19 Jul08 Jun17 (parsons riley)HAAR NATHAN 119 4.00 15% 5.70    
 
ARP-6   09/28/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DOCS CARO CAT Sep21 Jul03 Jun19 Oct27 Oct21 (rushton stetso)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 6.00 38% 1.60    
2  EURO TRACKING Sep15 Aug23 Jun05 May13 Mar18 (vicchrilli)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 3.50    
3  HAPPY HOUR BOBBY Sep19 Sep02 Aug17 Aug01 Jun29 (kenney ryan)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.00    
4  FUNNY ACTOR Oct27 Oct22 Oct08 Jul21 Jun17 (esquibel ma)VORRATH VALENTE 124 10.00 6% 14.70    
5  RIVERSPORT Sep13 Sep07 Sep02 Aug18 Aug03 (ibanez)ARRIOLA-SERRANO JOSE 124 12.00    
SCR  PRINCE OF LUCK Sep22 Sep13 Aug23 Aug16 Aug04 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 4.50    
7  BRANNIGAN Sep20 Sep05 Aug25 Aug11 Aug03 (lavanway day)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 4.00 29% 2.50    
8  SHARP AZ NAILS Sep02 Aug17 Jul28 Jul13 Jun30 (thompson grady)RAMOS B 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.