Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Hawthorne
Thursday - April 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

HAW-1   WIN (3/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/1)-(3/6/1)-(3/6/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/6/1)-(3/2/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/6/1)-(3/2/6)-(5/1/4) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-2   WIN (3/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/6)-(3/2/6)-(3/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/6)-(5/1/4) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/6)-(5/1/4)-(5/4/7) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-3   WIN (5/1/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/4)-(5/1/4)-(5/1/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/4)-(5/4/7) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4)-(5/4/7)-(3/5/6) 27 $0.50 $13.50 
HAW-4   WIN (5/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/7)-(5/4/7)-(5/4/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/7)-(3/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (5/4/7)-(3/5/6)-(3/6/5/2) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
HAW-5   WIN (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/6)-(3/7/5/6) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    TRI (3/5/6)-(3/7/5/6)-(3/7/5/6) 18 $0.50 $9.00 
    DD (3/5/6)-(3/6/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6)-(3/6/5/2)-(6/3/7/1) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
HAW-6   WIN (3/6/5/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2)-(3/6/5/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/5/2)-(6/3/7/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
HAW-7   WIN (6/3/7/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/3/7/1)-(6/3/7/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/3/7/1)-(6/3/7/1)-(6/3/7/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
HAW-1   04/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($15K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALADANTE Apr06 Dec04 Nov02 Oct10   (hughes ea)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 114 8.00 5% 19.00    
CRAZY HEART Jun01         (quinonez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 4.00    
TEAM TROY Mar27 Mar08 Jan25 Dec14 Nov05 (meraz antonio)HERNANDEZ K 118 3.00 40% 1.50    
MARK MY MEMORY Sep26 Sep15       (berndt joel)REYES FRANK 118 5.00    
OLIVERIO Apr06 Mar20 Feb15     (lopez eli)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 118 4.50    
GOOD YEGG Oct10 Sep19 Aug18 Jul28 Jul07 (ramirez c)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 124 2.00 30% 2.30    
 
HAW-2   04/17/2025 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($11.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LITTLE STEVEN Mar08 Feb14 Jan24 Jan04 Dec14 (winebaugh )LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 4.50    
MOONRISE DRIVE Mar30 Mar08 Feb15 Jan24 Jun09 (winebaugh che)HERNANDEZ K 122 3.50 19% 4.20    
GRAND ILLUSION Dec11 Oct09 Aug06     (reavis mi)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 112 2.50 53% 0.90    
DAPPER DUDE Mar23 Feb22 Feb01 Dec07 Nov02 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.00    
TIE BREAKER LENNIE Mar30 Mar05 Feb21 Jan24 Jan01 (meraz antoni)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 6.00    
MOVE IN SILENCE Oct24 Oct15 Sep29 Jul06 Jun11 (lynch harry)SANTIAGO VICTOR 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
 
HAW-3   04/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($25K) Purse ($15K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LA CLASICA Mar13 Feb27       (lopez eli)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 111 3.00 23% 3.40    
SCR  YAY YAY'S DREAM         (tracy tan)ULLOA JOAN 118 4.00    
LIONS LAW Apr03 Oct15 Oct03 Sep12 Aug22 (young r)COLON H 124 3.50    
WAHIDA OF MARDAN Apr03 Oct29 Oct15 Oct06 Sep12 (zawitz joel)REYES FRANK 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
CREME DE CASSIS May10 Mar31 Jun09 May12 Mar16 (tracy tann)LOVEBERRY JARETH 124 2.00 54% 0.90    
TIZMEONEMORETIME Apr03 Oct29 Aug25 Aug15 Aug04 (dizeo din)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 8.00    
 
HAW-4   04/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($9.5K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHRISTMAS PRESENT Oct13 Oct03 Sep22 Aug15 Aug04 (hughes earl )CENTENO ALEXIS 122 1.40    
CARL G Mar27 Oct12 Sep17 Sep07 Aug17 (lynch har)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 5.00    
CHAMPAGNE MIKE Apr03 Feb13 Jan30 Dec28 Dec11 (rosas rigo)REYES FRANK 122 10.00    
DRAGON DREW Apr03 Mar19 Mar06 Feb23 Jan26 (rodriguez hugo)COLON H 122 10.00 21% 3.80    
DEVILS RED Mar30 Feb13 Jan24 Dec05 Oct14 (reid davi)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 122 3.00 31% 2.30    
SCR  UNCAPTURED PULSE Apr03 Oct06 Sep05 Aug29 Aug08 (rosas rigo)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 6.00    
SON OF GRACE Apr06 Mar27 Oct13 Sep26 Sep15 (hughes ea)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 112 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
HAW-5   04/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($10.5K) 4UP M/F PT- 5:21
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GO STORMIN GIRL Mar27 Dec08 Nov05 Sep29 Sep22 (hughes earl )CENTENO ALEXIS 122 1.80    
LADY ATLANTIC Sep22 Jul25 Jul06 Jun15 Jun01 (ryan chri)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 112 15.00    
PRANCIPANTS Apr02 Feb28 Jan15 Dec26 Dec11 (rodriguez)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 3.50 69% 0.40    
APRIL'S GEM Mar27 Mar13 Jan31 Jan05 Oct13 (rosas rig)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 122 4.50    
RUNNERS HEAT Oct13 Sep29 Sep22 Sep05 Aug22 (wilson sh)ULLOA JOAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
PALACE MAGIC Mar30 Dec08 Nov12 Oct21 Sep21 (zawitz joe)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
WRITTEN CONSENT Mar30 Feb28 Jan15 Nov07 Oct13 (meraz antonio)REYES FRANK 122 5.00    
 
HAW-6   04/17/2025 5490ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:47
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ELODINE Mar27 Feb14 Jan16 Dec26 Dec06 (lopez elias)CENTENO ALEXIS 122 8.00    
DESSERT FIRST Apr06 Feb16 Dec28 Nov29 Oct31 (lopez eli)ROMAN CONSTANTINO 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
LEMON BOMB Apr03 Feb26 Dec26 Nov11 Oct03 (berndt joe)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 5.00 21% 3.80    
LITTLE DIXIE Mar22 Apr11 Mar15 Feb01 Jan03 (reavis mic)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 2.50    
EL KOWN Mar06 Jan16 Jul03 Jun06 Nov16 (mckeever andrew)MOJICA O 122 3.50 15% 5.70    
BEADS Mar27 Mar08 Jan25 Jan02 Dec12 (tracy tanner)HERNANDEZ K 122 4.50 19% 4.30    
MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN Apr03 Sep15 Aug18 Jul14 Jun16 (dizeo dino)COHEN DAVID 122 6.00    
 
HAW-7   04/17/2025 5490ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ICE AXE Apr06 Feb28 Jan02 Oct13 Sep29 (villalobos he)HERNANDEZ K 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
ALVIN Apr03 Mar27 Nov02 Oct15 Oct10 (rodriguez eduardo)MOJICA O 122 15.00    
LINE TO GAIN Mar27 Feb01 Jan17 Nov04 Mar02 (rosin coty)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 122 4.50 9% 10.70    
REGIMENTAL Feb14 Jan24 Jan05 Oct17 Sep29 (rodriguez )MURRILL MITCHELL 122 3.00    
MYSTIFIER Mar27 Feb08 Jan17 Dec13 Sep28 (rosin w)REYES FRANK 122 6.00    
SLAVA UKRAINI Mar27 Jan06 Dec19 Dec04 Nov18 (rosas rig)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 122 4.00 63% 0.60    
ANCIENT MAN Apr03 Mar27 Nov18 Nov02 Oct24 (hughes ea)ESQUIVEL VALENTIN 112 10.00 5% 19.00    
ELECTRIC CHARGE Oct26 Sep19 Aug08 Jul20 Jun09 (quinonez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 122 5.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.