Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Friday - September 13, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-1   WIN (1/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/4)-(1/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-2   WIN (2/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/4)-(2/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (2/4)-(3/1)-(4/2) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
ARP-3   WIN (3/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/1)-(3/1) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (3/1)-(4/2)-(5/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ARP-4   WIN (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
ARP-5   WIN (5/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/1)-(5/2/1)-(5/2/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-1   09/13/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($23K) 2 ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING OF SWING Aug17 Jul22 Jun28     (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 2.50 35% 1.80    
  (by FLAMEAWAY out of SHE'S GIFTED by FLATTER)
2  JBA DADDY'S ANCHOR Jul20 Jun29       (alire r)GONZALEZ PEDRO 122 15.00    
  (by ANCHOR DOWN out of MAUI MOON by ENGLISH CHANNEL)
3  MARKING LIGHTS Aug25 Jul20       (williams )IRONEYES R 117 6.00    
  (by MARKING out of LIGHTS ON BROADWAY by REAL SOLUTION)
4  BOTTLE CAPS Aug25 Jul21 Jul07 Jun29 May04 (williams dewey)RAMOS B 122 10.00 28% 2.60    
  (by DADS CAPS out of AWESOME FOREVER by AWESOME AGAIN)
 
ARP-2   09/13/2024 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ILLUSIONED Aug30 Aug04 Jun22 Jun16 Apr07 (ibanez albe)VORRATH VALENTE 124 20.00    
2  NON TOXIC Aug04 Jun22 May11 Nov11 Oct27 (rust terri)RAMOS B 124 2.00 70% 0.40    
3  ORO Jul24 Jul10 Jun23 Jul10 Jun22 (jenkins an)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 10.00    
4  ALL MY VICES         (martinez a)CARDOSO DAVID 121 8.00 9% 10.30    
 
ARP-3   09/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($21.5K) 3UP C/G PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  HARD TO COME BY Aug28 Aug14 Jul16 Jul06 Jun23 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  BIG JACK Aug10 Jul21 Jun30 May02 Apr15 (martinez a)RAMOS B 124 2.50    
3  ATHENS MOON Aug14 Jul23 Mar23 Mar03 Feb22 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 119 3.50 57% 0.70    
4  UNCLE JUJU Aug18 Jul28 Jul19 Jul07 Jun15 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 122 5.00    
 
ARP-4   09/13/2024 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($20K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLATTER ME ZEN Aug04 May04 Apr02 Mar18 Feb07 (childs g)RAMOS B 124 20.00    
2  STAND BY TIME Aug27 May20 Apr21 Mar16 Feb21 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 15.00 13% 6.40    
SCR  CHACHA TO CATALINA Sep06 Feb01 Dec18 Dec06 Nov11 (hibdon n)LULL E 124 10.00    
4  FLYING LADY Aug11 Jun29 Apr04 Oct08 Aug26 (martinez a)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 3.50 48% 1.10    
5  KONA KINLEY Jun23 Jun15 May27 Apr26 Apr14 (rushton te)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 5.00    
 
ARP-5   09/13/2024 4620ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($3.2K) Purse ($11.4K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PAYNTER'S BOY Sep01 Jun30 Jun02 Apr27 Apr20 (rushton temple)LULL E 124 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  OREGON COUNTY Sep07 Jul21 Jun30 Jun16 May27 (hibdon mar)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 5.00 25% 3.00    
3  BRICKBAT Aug11 Jul14 Jun30 Jun01 Apr27 (rushton stacy)RAMOS B 124 4.50    
4  PRINCE OF LUCK Aug23 Aug16 Aug04 Jul20 Jul12 (rushton stets)CARDOSO DAVID 124 8.00    
5  BIG BIZ Jul21 Jun16 May17 Apr21 Apr06 (haar j)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50 32% 2.20    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.