Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Century Mile
Friday - July 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

CTM-2   WIN (3/7/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5)-(3/7/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (3/7/4/5)-(2/5/6/3)-(3/6/2/1) 64 $1.00 $64.00 
CTM-3   WIN (2/5/6/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/5/6/3)-(2/5/6/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/5/6/3)-(2/5/6/3)-(2/5/6/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/5/6/3)-(3/6/2/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
CTM-4   WIN (3/6/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
CTM-5   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/6)-(5/1/6)-(5/1/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/6)-(1/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
CTM-6   WIN (1/2/3/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/3/7)-(1/2/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/3/7)-(1/2/3/7)-(1/2/3/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/3/7)-(4/5/1/3)-(4/8/7/3/5) 80 $1.00 $80.00 
CTM-7   WIN (4/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/5/1/3)-(4/5/1/3) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/5/1/3)-(4/5/1/3)-(4/5/1/3) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/5/1/3)-(4/8/7/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
CTM-8   WIN (4/8/7/3/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (4/8/7/3/5)-(4/8/7/3/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (4/8/7/3/5)-(4/8/7/3/5)-(4/8/7/3/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
CTM-2   07/21/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($20K) 2 ALL PT- 8:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SILKSTONE         (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 119 4.00    
  (by BIRDSTONE out of SILKWORM by DIXIE UNION)
SUDDENLY FAMOUS         (hedge ric)ZENTENO JR 122 6.00    
  (by CAR TALK out of SUDDEN by SPEED JARO (FR))
MISS MIEZIE         (ryc)GONZALEZ ALONZO 119 2.00 38% 1.60    
  (by ST PATRICK'S DAY out of CLARESMIEZIE by FORESTRY)
EL CORRECAMINOS         (hedge rick)ZENTENO EDGAR 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by SPEEDMEISTER out of GIFTED BIRD by BIRDSTONE)
KULSUM         (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by IT'S NO JOKE out of PRETTY GOLDEN by FORMAL GOLD)
DOUG'S HERO         (petrowski jo)NATERA KEIHTON 122 12.00    
  (by BERNARDINI out of COMPOSING by TOUCH GOLD)
HE TOLD AMY         (zielke mad)BALGOBIN KEISHAN 119 2.50 18% 4.60    
  (by PALACE MALICE out of OH FLATTER ME by FLATTER)
 
CTM-3   07/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AMBER PRINCESS Jul07 Jun23 Jun09 May27 Oct22 (o'hagan coll)PRESCOD N'RICO 123 12.00    
THRILL OF THE NITE Jul01 Jun02 May12 Oct22 Oct07 (kingston karlin)NELSON DANE 123 2.50 42% 1.40    
FOREVER LADY Jul01 Jun03 May13 Nov04 Oct15 (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 125 10.00 8% 11.20    
MOHAYMEN DAY Jul01 Jun17 Jun02 May12 Mar17 (rob)GONZALEZ ALONZO 125 4.50    
PAULINA'S STAR Jun17 Jun02 Apr18 Mar27 Mar07 (brown r)MARTI ALEXANDER 125 2.00 14% 6.30    
SWIFT SWALLOW May27 Oct21 Sep30 Sep17 Sep03 (hedge rick)ZENTENO EDGAR 123 5.00 11% 7.80    
BEAUTIFUL BABE Jul07 May13 Nov05 Oct28 Oct14 (calhoun kimber)MARTIN ANDRE 123 20.00    
 
CTM-4   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12K) Purse ($13K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LILBITSPICY Jul09 Jun10 May27 May12 Oct22 (anders)STEADMAN LEON 123 15.00 5% 19.00    
QUEEN RHONDA Jul07 Jun10 May27 May12 Nov04 (smith k)MARTI ALEXANDER 123 2.50 10% 9.10    
SHAKINOFFTHERUST Jul09 Jun10 May27 May06 Sep24 (cone rodney)PRESCOD N'RICO 123 2.00 42% 1.40    
JELLI Jul07 Jun17 Jun03 Nov04 Sep30 (nicholson david)BRYAN D 123 6.00    
GOLDEN FORTYNINE Jul07 Jun10 May26 May06 Oct22 (kettleson alivi)NELSON DANE 118 10.00    
DRAMATIC FLAIR Jul07 Jun10 May27 Nov04 Oct22 (grieves ro)MALVAEZ MAURICIO 123 4.50 26% 2.80    
WOMANONTHEWARPATH Jul07 Jun16 May27 Dec29 Oct24 (frey carson)NATERA KEIHTON 118 12.00    
 
CTM-5   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC11 FAST Sonoma Purse ($50K) 3 F PT-10:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FORCE TO REKN WITH Jul02 Jun10 May20 Sep24 Aug29 (vanovers)BOODRAMSINGH BRIAN 121 2.00 25% 3.00    
  (by COUNTERFORCE out of NOBLE PERFECTION by MAJESTICPERFECTION)
BOOTIFUL ROSE Jul01 Jun16 Jun02 May12 Oct29 (frey carson)NELSON DANE 123 2.50    
  (by SHAMAN GHOST out of JUNGLE ROSE by ANIMAL KINGDOM)
ROSE ROSE ROSE Jul07 Jun09 Apr22 Apr14 Mar31 (cone rodney)PRESCOD N'RICO 115 15.00    
  (by CALIFORNIA CHROME out of TURLINGTON by TAPIZAR)
ECHO CREEK Jul01 Jun16 May26 May06 Sep10 (robert)ASENCIO MARIANO 120 10.00    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SMOKE EM ALL by NIIGON)
BIG HUG Jul01 Jun20 Jun02 Oct29 Oct08 (hedge ric)ZENTENO JR 124 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by MR. BIG out of TEMEEKU by UNUSUAL HEAT)
SUPER CARO Jul10 Jun20 Jun02 Apr12 Mar25 (o'h)GONZALEZ ALONZO 122 4.50 10% 9.10    
  (by SUPER SAVER out of MY SISTER CARO by BOP)
 
CTM-6   07/21/2023 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT-10:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PLUM BLUE Jun23 Jun02 Oct29 Oct08 Sep24 (hedge ric)ZENTENO JR 120 3.00 36% 1.80    
  (by IMPERIALISM out of POLITICAL AFFAIR by POLITICAL FORCE)
MINE ME Jun23 Jun02 Aug20 Jul30 Jul08 (hedge rick)NATERA KEIHTON 119 2.00 28% 2.50    
  (by MINESHAFT out of FORGOTTEN MISS by QUEBEC DANCER)
DANCE SHOES Jun23 Jun02 May06 Jan23 Jan12 (brown r)NELSON DANE 121 12.00 8% 11.60    
  (by MANK out of DANCIN FOR DELLANA by WHYWHYWHY)
STEVIE WONDER GIRL Jun16 Jun02 Oct08 Sep10 Aug27 (kettleson a)MARTI ALEXANDER 117 15.00    
  (by NO HESITATION out of PRETTY WONDER by STEVIE WONDERBOY)
FLORAL Jun23 Jun02 May13 Nov05 Oct29 (ryc)GONZALEZ ALONZO 119 8.00    
  (by BAKKEN out of MONTEFIORE by RAHY)
TONE IT UP Jun23 Jun02 Oct29 Sep24 Aug20 (nichol)ASENCIO MARIANO 119 5.00    
  (by TONALIST out of ACHIEVER'S LEGACY by CITY ZIP)
ORANGE THEORY Jun27 Jun13 Jun06 May23 Oct29 (cone rodney)PRESCOD N'RICO 117 10.00 6% 14.90    
  (by FIRST DUDE out of CHIPPI by TRIPPI)
 
CTM-7   07/21/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($35K) 2 ALL PT-11:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHICKS DIG CAPES         (frey carson)BRYAN D 122 20.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAPE CANAVERAL out of CHECKPLUSCHICK by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
JAKOBS ROCKET BOY         (rycroft tim)PRESCOD N'RICO 122 8.00    
  (by CAPE CANAVERAL out of JAKOBS ROCKET GIRL by KANTHAROS)
SIZZLIN ROSE         (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAPE CANAVERAL out of ROSILA by ROSETTI)
ITSALLGOODMAN         (anderson gonzal)NELSON DANE 122 2.00 34% 1.90    
  (by SPEIGHTSTER out of GEISHA PEEBLES by FIRST SAMURAI)
JODEYS LIL PAIN         (payne jodey)NATERA KEIHTON 119 2.50 21% 3.80    
  (by CAPE CANAVERAL out of TEEMANS KID by TEEMAN)
WHY NOT DANCE         (ryc)GONZALEZ ALONZO 119 12.00    
  (by MANK out of DANCIN FOR DELLANA by WHYWHYWHY)
CAPE'S LEGACY         (frey carson)MARTI ALEXANDER 122 10.00    
  (by CAPE CANAVERAL out of TELL ME LIES by KY ALTA)
THUNDER ROARS         (payne)GASKIN ZAVIER 117 4.00    
  (by MARINE LANDING out of HANGINGONAPRAYER by GRAND SLAM)
 
CTM-8   07/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($12.5K) 3UP ALL PT-11:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FULL VELOCITY Jul08 Jun24 May26 May06 Nov04 (rycrof)ASENCIO MARIANO 123 10.00    
ALL THAT GOLD Jul08 Jun09 May13 Oct28 Oct15 (russ)REYES AMBROSIO 123 15.00    
LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR Jun23 Jun09 May05 Apr26 Apr12 (brown r)PRESCOD N'RICO 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
WYE CROSS Jul08 Jul01 Jun09 May27 May06 (smith k)MARTI ALEXANDER 125 2.50 45% 1.20    
VISION QUEST Jun24 Jun03 Nov05 Oct21 Oct07 (petrowski jo)NATERA KEIHTON 123 30.00 5% 19.00    
MR. KALYPSO Jul07 Oct01 Sep09 Aug20 Aug05 (buehler r)BRYAN D 123 25.00    
UPO Jul07 Jun24 Mar04 Feb06 Jan18 (hedge ric)ZENTENO JR 123 5.00 6% 16.10    
PULL THE PIN Jun30 Jun10 May26 Oct08 Sep23 (w)GRIFFITH DELANE 118 6.00 19% 4.20    
CARSON'S LEGACY Jul09 Jun10 May26 Apr30 Apr15 (frey carson)NELSON DANE 125 12.00    
10  CHROME KING Jul07 Jun23 Jun03 Feb04 Jan14 (humbk)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 12.00    
11  FLASHY SISTER Jun23 Jun09 Nov04 Oct14 Sep02 (davies dea)RIZO ALEXIS 118 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.