Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Fort Erie
Monday - September 22, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FE-1   WIN (1/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (1/4/3)-(1/4/3)-(1/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (1/4/3)-(5/4/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (1/4/3)-(5/4/2)-(5/1/4/7) 36 $0.20 $7.20 
FE-2   WIN (5/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/2)-(5/4/2)-(5/4/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/2)-(5/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/4/2)-(5/1/4/7)-(2/3/1) 36 $0.20 $7.20 
FE-3   WIN (5/1/4/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7)-(5/1/4/7) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/1/4/7)-(2/3/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/1/4/7)-(2/3/1)-(7/5/2/6) 48 $0.20 $9.60 
FE-4   WIN (2/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (2/3/1)-(2/3/1)-(2/3/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (2/3/1)-(7/5/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/3/1)-(7/5/2/6)-(6/1/4/5) 48 $0.20 $9.60 
FE-5   WIN (7/5/2/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/2/6)-(7/5/2/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/2/6)-(7/5/2/6)-(7/5/2/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/5/2/6)-(6/1/4/5) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/5/2/6)-(6/1/4/5)-(3/5/6/1) 64 $0.20 $12.80 
FE-6   WIN (6/1/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (6/1/4/5)-(6/1/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (6/1/4/5)-(6/1/4/5)-(6/1/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (6/1/4/5)-(3/5/6/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
FE-7   WIN (3/5/6/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1)-(3/5/6/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
FE-1   09/22/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($6.25K) Purse ($20.55K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THIS IS GLORIA Sep02 Aug15 Jul10 Jun19 May18 (robill)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 118 2.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  ONE HELL OF A GIRL Sep02 Aug25 Aug04 Jul22 Jul13 (spada lauren)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 120 4.00    
3  IMPERIAL TRICK Aug30 Aug07 Jul17 Jun26 Jun12 (thompson ran)SAMUEL L 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
4  BIG LADY         (maynard desmo)PINTO MELANIE 118 8.00 28% 2.60    
5  KOZY BABE Sep08 Aug25 Aug09 Jul03 Jun05 (davis )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 118 3.00    
6  RING IT UP Sep01 Jul22 Sep30 Sep23 Sep03 (humber joseph)CRAWFORD J 120 3.50    
 
FE-2   09/22/2025 4290ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($22.05K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  NOBLE BODAN Sep06 Aug21 Aug07     (dixon patrick)FORDE XAREL 115 4.00    
  (by LAOBAN out of NOBLE FREUD by FREUD)
2  MISS SINGH ANGEL Sep08 Aug25 Oct01 Sep09 Aug26 (concessi arm)SANCHEZ ALEXIS 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by NOT BOURBON out of MISS M V P by GRAND SLAM)
3  SUGAR DROP Sep08 Aug25 Jul22 Jul08 Jul01 (humber joseph)CRAWFORD J 122 12.00    
  (by FREE DROP BILLY out of SUGAR SHACK by SHACKLEFORD)
4  SALMIAKKI Aug29 Jul12 May31 Dec14 Oct25 (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 3.00 25% 3.00    
  (by TWIRLING CANDY out of FINN'S JEWEL by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  FROMTHEWONDERLAND Sep08 Aug25 Jul27 Jun30 Jun12 (butti)GASKIN ZAVIER 120 2.50 32% 2.10    
  (by AMI'S HOLIDAY out of NO WONDER by THREE WONDERS)
6  PERFECTFOREVERTOWN Sep02         (neubauer mich)PINTO MELANIE 120 2.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of PERFECT FOREVER by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
 
FE-3   09/22/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($4K) Purse ($16.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CRIMSON FOREST Aug30         (smith r)MAILHOT P 118 3.00 18% 4.70    
2  ONE MORE DOLL Sep08 Aug15 Jul24 Jul06 Dec14 (mileni nick)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 3.50    
3  RING BIT Sep01 Jul24 Jun29 May30   (mileni nick)SALLES LEO 120 2.00    
4  ELLIE'S STAR         (mandalfino paul )CRAWFORD J 122 10.00 11% 8.40    
5  PRINCESS O DENMARK Sep02 Aug04 Jun03 Oct14 Oct03 (davis richard )JOHNSON KIRK 122 4.50 32% 2.20    
6  NOTYOURHUNNY Sep02 Aug25 Aug04 Jul13 Jul01 (humber)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 120 20.00    
7  CHARLETTA Sep02 Aug04 Jul13 Jul01 Jun15 (rickma)VANDERMEERSCH AMANDA 122 8.00 10% 9.10    
 
FE-4   09/22/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($21.15K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:24
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WOLF BEACH Sep15 Jul08 Jun10 May11 Apr26 (newland georg)KERR CHEYENNE 115 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  STAR SCHOLAR Sep15 Sep01 Aug17 Jul27 Jul07 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 120 5.00 39% 1.60    
3  FINAL RUN FOR LOVE Sep01 Aug18 Aug04 Jul08 Jun24 (mcmahon willia)BYNOE DESEAN 120 3.00 24% 3.20    
4  SILVER PISTOL Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 Oct25 Oct01 (newland georg)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 1.80    
5  HEY LUIGI Aug26 Aug04 Jul21 Dec07 Nov21 (ceccat)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 2.00    
 
FE-5   09/22/2025 3630ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($17.55K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SIGIRIYA Aug26 Aug11 Jul22 Jul14 Jul01 (ceccato sharon)CRAWFORD J 124 6.00    
2  MO TWILIGHT Sep09 Aug26 Aug05 Jul27 Jun15 (robillard juli)JOHNSON KIRK 122 10.00 9% 10.50    
3  SIGNATURE RING Sep08 Aug18 Jul07 Jun10 Oct31 (robillard julie)MAILHOT P 122 4.00    
4  EASY ACCESS Aug18 Aug05 Jul14 Oct21 Oct14 (humber joseph)DAVID MICHAEL 122 15.00    
5  ASHCAR NELLIE Sep08 Aug18 Aug05 Jul08 Jul01 (butti)GASKIN ZAVIER 124 1.80 19% 4.30    
6  CREATIVPERFORMANCE Sep09 Aug26 Aug05 Jul21 Jun24 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
7  CRIMSON NIGHTS Sep09 Aug12 Jul20 May27 May04 (adamo anthony)FORDE XAREL 117 2.00 49% 1.00    
 
FE-6   09/22/2025 4290ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($25.05K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOWN'S A BREEZE Sep09 Aug25 Aug04 Jul27 Jul07 (agostino geo)CRAWFORD J 122 2.50 21% 3.80    
2  SUPER SERENADE Aug25 Aug11 Jul31 Jul10 Jun19 (keen howard)NEWELL F 120 20.00    
3  BRAZILIAN LEGACY Sep08 Aug15 Jul24 Jul03 Oct31 (ceccato sharon)SALLES LEO 124 5.00    
4  NOW IS A BREEZE Aug25 Aug09 Jul05 Jul27 Jun06 (agostino roy )PINTO MELANIE 122 12.00 20% 4.00    
5  DISGRUNTLEDPELICAN Sep01 Aug04 Jul13 Jun30 Jun15 (davis )HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  BRILLIANT DISGUISE Sep09 Aug25 Aug11 Jul27 Jul07 (humber joseph)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 2.00 32% 2.10    
7  LITTLE ALEXA Sep09 Jun29 May23     (cohen michael)JOHNSON KIRK 120 3.50    
 
FE-7   09/22/2025 4620ft TURF RC6 GOOD Optional Claiming ($10K) Purse ($21.75K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MORAL TURPITUDE Sep09 Aug25 Aug12 Jul22 Jul04 (simms )ALDERSON IAN 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  TURF AND SURF Sep09 Aug18 Jul22 Jul14 Jun30 (blake michael)PINTO MELANIE 122 4.00    
3  NICE BABY Aug18 Jul22 Jun15 May22 Jul02 (adamo anthony)FORDE XAREL 117 15.00 44% 1.30    
4  THUNDERHEAVYRAIN Sep09 Aug18 Jul22 Jun10 Jun03 (husban)HUSBANDS CHRISTOPHER 124 3.00    
5  ADDENDUM Aug04 Jul24 Jul03 Jun19 Oct27 (loescher paula)MAILHOT P 122 8.00 17% 5.10    
6  EMERALD LAKE Sep09 Aug18 Jul22 Jun20 Dec07 (agostino geo)SALLES LEO 122 6.00 7% 13.30    
7  KID GIZMO Sep09 Aug21 Jul22 Jul07 Jun21 (agostino geo)CRAWFORD J 122 2.50    
8  FANNY M Sep11 Sep01 Aug18 Aug04 Jul13 (simms c)ZENTENO EDGAR 120 10.00    
SCR  DREAMING OF HOPE Sep01 Aug11 Jul07 Dec14 Nov15 (adamo anthony)FORDE XAREL 117 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.