Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Millarville
Monday - July 01, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

MIL-1   WIN (1/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (1/3)-(1/3) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
MIL-3   WIN (4/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/5/2)-(4/5/2)-(4/5/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/5/2)-(3/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
MIL-4   WIN (3/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/2)-(3/2) 2 $1.00 $2.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
MIL-1   07/01/2024 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($10.65K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPEEDING STYLE Jun23 Jun09 Apr03 Mar13 Feb28 (calfrobe shawn)POWELL ANDRE 124 1.20 50% 1.00    
JAKE THE GREAT Jun23 Oct09 Sep17 Sep04 Aug19 (magnuson lyle)BUGEAUD L 124 8.00    
CARSON'S LEGACY Jun22 Jun08 May25 May10 Apr13 (frey carson)LUNAN RICHARD 124 4.00 5% 19.00    
BROWNING ISLAND Jun14 Jun07 May19 Oct14 Oct08 (anderson gonzal)POON ANDREW 124 1.40    
 
MIL-3   07/01/2024 3300ft DIRT RC11 FAST Millarville Sprint Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIZ FUNNY Aug02 Jul25 May30 Jun21 Jun06 (brown allen)GORDON GARFIELD 124 15.00    
  (by TIZNOW out of HA HA TONKA by DISTORTED HUMOR)
TOP OF THE ROCK Jun16 Sep19 Aug22 Jul30 Jul22 (magnuson lyle)BUGEAUD L 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by UH OH BANGO out of ROCKY TOP GIRL by ROCKY BAR)
CMON SHARON Jun08 Sep23 Sep03 Aug27 Aug13 (willard marsha )NELSON RYAN 124 20.00    
  (by BENCH THE JUDGE out of TRUSTY LASS by TEMPERED APPEAL)
TOOL TIME May24 May04 Oct21 Oct07 Sep10 (anderson gonzal)POON ANDREW 124 0.40 35% 1.80    
  (by BAKKEN out of CLASSADALA by REGAL CLASSIC)
MINDSHARE Jun09 Apr02 Mar06 Feb26 Feb12 (calfrobe shawn)POWELL ANDRE 124 4.50 27% 2.70    
  (by ROCKY BAR out of OPENSHAFT by MINESHAFT)
MOONSHINE NOW Jun08 May24 Oct21 Oct08 Sep24 (smith robe)LAHOE RUJA 124 10.00    
  (by MALIBU MOON out of ASK ME WHEN by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
 
MIL-4   07/01/2024 5940ft DIRT RC11 FAST Millarville Derby Purse ($14.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FLASH OF GLORY Jun29 Jun16 Jun01 Oct07 Sep30 (little nol)NELSON RYAN 124 8.00    
  (by POINT OF ENTRY out of SANDI'S READY by MORE THAN READY)
KVOTHE Jun23 Jun15 Jun01 Oct07 Sep24 (smith rusty)GORDON GARFIELD 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by CAUSE TO BELIEVE out of KIMBO by SKIP TO THE STONE)
CHRISTINE'S JACK Jun23 Jun09 Sep24 Aug13 Jul23 (magnuson lyle)BUGEAUD L 124 1.60 68% 0.50    
  (by MUSKETIER out of KISSAMEE GLITTER by TEXAS GLITTER)
SAXON SAGA May31 May01 Oct22 Oct07 Sep23 (anderson g)BALGOBIN KEISHAN 124 0.60    
  (by SLEW'S SAGA out of TU TU STONE by GRINDSTONE)
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.