Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Elko County Fair
Monday - September 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ELK-2   WIN (2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/5)-(2/5) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $2.00 $0.00 
ELK-6   WIN (3/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (3/7)-(3/7) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $2.00 $0.00 
ELK-8   WIN (4/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/1)-(4/3/1)-(4/3/1) 6 $2.00 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/1)-(4/1/6) 9 $2.00 $18.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ELK-2   09/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 SLOPPY Elko Thoroughbred Derby Purse ($13K) 3 ALL PT- 4:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ONLY LIGHTNING Aug18 Jul01 Jun18 Feb12 Jan27 (mitchell r)GAMEZ M 119 4.00    
  (by UNDER CAUTION out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
2  SATIN HEART Aug26 Aug05 Jul22 Jul02 Jun10 (scudder r)KELLENBERGER KODY 119 1.60 42% 1.40    
  (by BRADESTER out of IN GOLD BLOOD by MY GOLDEN SONG)
SCR  BAY BOSS         (carter ronal)AGUILAR DANIEL 122 8.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of DONITA'S RULER by ROMAN RULER)
SCR  GRONKSKY Jul30 Jul08 Jun25     (mitchell chris )CORTEZ LUIS 122 6.00    
  (by VRONSKY out of TIZ ZOE CEE by TIZBUD)
5  CHIEF MISCHIEF Aug05 Jul22 Jul08 Jun17 Jul10 (dahlke kyle)ZAVALA JULIAN 122 2.00 25% 3.00    
  (by CURLIN TO MISCHIEF out of TALLCHIEF by SEA OF SECRETS)
6  THIRSTY NO MORE Aug18 Aug05 Jul22 Jul01 Jun10 (dahlk)FIGUEROA ANTONIO 119 4.50    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of FORESTRY'S DELIGHT by FORESTRY)
7  BEBBANBURG Aug26 Aug06 Jul16 Sep22 Sep02 (mitchell chris)JAMES JARELL 119 3.50    
  (by UNDER CAUTION out of COWGIRLS CAUSE by COWBOY CAL)
 
ELK-6   09/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 GOOD Miss Elko Fillies Purse ($7K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SNOW HILL Sep02 Aug18 Jul16 Jun24 Jun10 (mitchell chris )CORTEZ LUIS 124 4.00    
  (by GIG HARBOR out of UNKNOWN by UNKNOWN)
SCR  EARLY APRIL Aug26 Aug05 Jul30 Jul08   (mckinney d)GAMEZ M 124 1.40    
  (by DOMINUS out of TULANE by RIVER SQUALL)
3  SHEZA DELIGHT Jul16 Jun25 Jun10 Sep10 Sep05 (dahlke kyle)ZAVALA JULIAN 124 2.50 55% 0.80    
  (by GIG HARBOR out of FORESTRY'S DELIGHT by FORESTRY)
SCR  DR GS SWEETIE Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Aug06 Jul16 (hadley to)KELLENBERGER KODY 124 2.00    
  (by CHITU out of TRUE BLUE NATION by BLUEGRASS CAT)
5  CLAY'S CLOUD BURST Aug19 Aug05 Jul30 Jul16 Jul01 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 1.60    
  (by RACE DAY out of BUSH'S SONG by UNBRIDLED'S SONG)
6  COME CORRECT Sep02 Aug26 Aug19 Aug05 Jun25 (williams dewe)BURNEY ROBERT 124 8.00    
  (by MINISTERS WILD CAT out of REWRITTEN by EL CORREDOR)
7  HERE'S THE THING Aug11 Jul02 Jun24 Jun10 Sep05 (tschi)FIGUEROA ANTONIO 124 6.00 20% 4.00    
  (by STAY THIRSTY out of ISTEEFAA by EDDINGTON)
 
ELK-8   09/04/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 GOOD Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ALPINE HYPNOSIS Aug26 Aug06 Jul30 Jul14 Jul01 (burns eugene)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  KOA CAT Aug19 Jul15 Jul01 Jun24 Jun17 (scudder mike)GAMEZ M 124 4.00    
3  PASAMONTE MAN Aug05 Jul02 Jun24 Jun04 Mar28 (simpson gary)ALAYA ERIC 124 1.60 14% 6.00    
4  N. K. ROCKET MAN Aug02 Jul22 Jun28 May27 Apr29 (carter ronald )JAMES JARELL 124 2.00 60% 0.70    
5  KEENEYE GEORGE Aug13 Jul23 Jun24 Apr24 Apr03 (child che)KELLENBERGER KODY 124 6.00    
6  GOLD NOTE Aug26 Jul23 Jun25 Jun09 May28 (chris)FIGUEROA ANTONIO 124 8.00    
7  NAP TIME Sep02 Aug19 May06 Apr16 Mar25 (luna ceasar)CORTEZ LUIS 121 12.00    
 
ELK-9   09/04/2023 3630ft DIRT RC0 SLOPPY ALW7000 ($0K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BLUE SKYE JADE Aug19 Aug06 Jul15 Jun17 Jun04 (williams dew)AGUILAR DANIEL null   30% 2.30    
2  SCOTTY WHO Aug26 Aug06 Jul29 Jul15 Jul01 (mckinney d)GAMEZ M null      
3  FOREST ECHO Aug19 Aug05 Jul15 Jul01 Jun11 (dahlk)FIGUEROA ANTONIO null      
4  ROYAL TAP Aug25 Jul29 Jul08 Jun16 Jun04 (scudder m)KELLENBERGER KODY null   45% 1.20    
6  MUSCLE HEAD Jul01 Jun17 Jun03 May28 Oct02 (tsosie terrill)JAMES JARELL null   5% 19.00    
7  HIDETHELOOT Aug20 Aug06 Oct28 Sep24 Aug29 (gibbs tyler)CORTEZ LUIS null      
SCR  POPS AWESOME Aug19 Aug05 Jul29 Jul22 Jul09 (williams dewe)BURNEY ROBERT null      
 
ELK-10   09/04/2023 3630ft DIRT RC2 SLOPPY STK10000 ($0K) Purse ($10K) 3UP ALL PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BETTOR TRIP NICK Aug05 Feb24 Jan29 Dec26 Apr30 (christoffersen far)ACEVES E null   45% 1.20    
2  SOLA Aug05 Jul16 Jul09 Jun25 Jun10 (mckinney kynd)BURNEY ROBERT null   8% 10.90    
3  ACE AND KINGS Aug05 Jul15 Jun18 May27 May06 (mitchell chris)JAMES JARELL null      
5  TOOTHLESS WONDER Aug25 Aug06 Jul29 Jun18 Jun11 (scudder mike)GAMEZ M null      
6  MCGEORGE Feb26 Feb05 Jan15 Nov25 Nov04 (chris)FIGUEROA ANTONIO null   26% 2.90    
7  WAYLAY Aug05 Jul29 Jul09 Jun24 Aug06 (hadley tori)AGUILAR DANIEL null      
SCR  CHASE THE MUSIC Aug06 Jul22 Jul09 Jun10 Sep18 (scudder m)KELLENBERGER KODY null      
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.