Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Louisiana Downs
Saturday - July 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI


Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
LAD-1   07/30/2022 3630ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GYPSY SOUL Jul09 Jun27       (diodoro robert)MORA GERARDO 124 4.50    
SWEET GIBSON         (hatcher nathan )TORRES HUGO 115 20.00 5% 19.00    
T W N LETSGOGIRL Jun11 May21 Feb24     (nixon thomas )LOZADA CARLOS 121 12.00    
SCR  LATE NITE MUSIC Jun17 May27 May06 Mar12 Feb23 (asmussen)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 120 1.00 44% 1.30    
ROYAL BONUS Jul12 Jul02 May21 May06 Feb18 (witt ii)COTTO L 120 2.50 25% 3.00    
I LOVE YOU MORE Jul09 Jun05 Feb09 Jan19   (ward ronnie)VARGAS P 120 5.00    
 
LAD-2   07/30/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($12K) 2 ALL PT- 4:33
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STOP THE MADNESS         (jeansonne jus)LOZADA CARLOS 114 2.00 44% 1.30    
SCR  COMPETITIVE SLEW Jun26         (johnson b)TORRES HUGO 114 15.00    
SOUTHERN BLUSH         (jeansonne just)CULP BRIANNE 106 5.00    
REDSON         (asmuss)GUERRERO ANDRES 119 3.00 10% 8.60    
THIS FRIDAY Jul04 Jun20       (johnson b)BOREL H 119 6.00    
MUSTAFA         (asmussen)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 119 3.00 10% 8.60    
SNAKEBIT         (morris rowdy)BARRERA J 114 15.00 7% 12.60    
 
LAD-3   07/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($11K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:01
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
YES I'M A LADY Jul19 Jul09 Jun27 May29 Mar25 (melancon don)BARRERA J 115 12.00    
JIVIN ASTRO Jul10 Jun14 May31     (lara jor)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 120 6.00    
CONNECT IT Jul06 Jun03 May14 Feb13 Jan28 (alfortish sean)CULP BRIANNE 115 1.60 38% 1.70    
WHEELS LIKE NALA Jul03 Jun14 Mar25 Mar10 Jan30 (cates al)LOZADA CARLOS 120 3.00    
DON'T LOOK ETHEL Jul19 Jun05 May15     (ward ronnie)VARGAS P 124 3.50 29% 2.50    
TRUE BLONDE AUNTIE Jul10 Jun19 May21     (ingram steve)GUZMAN JORGE 120 6.00    
CHATAIN'S EAGLE Jul19 Jul03       (lara jorge)COTTO L 124 15.00 7% 14.10    
 
LAD-4   07/30/2022 5490ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUTERBANKS Jul16 Jun11 May10 Feb10   (clark )GUERRERO ANDRES 122 6.00    
LANDOFTHEPHARAOHS Jul10 Jun28 May31 May21 May07 (jeansonne jus)LOZADA CARLOS 122 2.00 20% 4.00    
MAJOR KONG Jul16 Jun26 Apr29 Mar25 Mar06 (espinoza)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 122 10.00    
CABO'S RUMOR Jul19 May29 May07 Mar27 Mar06 (d)DE CRUZ 119 12.00    
AKHNAS Jul21 Jun29 Jun11 Apr21 Mar05 (tracy greg)COTTO L 122 5.00    
FREDONIAN Jul10 Jun26 Jun18 Jun04 May07 (borel renay)BOREL H 122 2.50 26% 2.80    
TIZ MCNAMARA Jul18 Jul04 Jun14 Jun04 May08 (feilner f)TORRES HUGO 117 6.00 13% 7.00    
FLASHYMEISTER Jul17 Jul05       (williams bla)GUZMAN JORGE 122 20.00 11% 7.70    
 
LAD-5   07/30/2022 4950ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($16K) Purse ($22K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FIRINGTOTHEFRONT May28 Mar19 Feb13     (tracy greg)LOZADA CARLOS 122 3.00    
SCR  TINCANDANCE Jul03 Jun11 May17 Feb18 Jan29 (lara jorge)GUZMAN JORGE 119 5.00 36% 1.80    
SCR  MISS JAMIE Jul08 May27 May12 Apr15 Feb11 (latour nich)MORALES ROBERTO 122 15.00    
SIMPLE PLEASURE Jun23 May30 May08 Mar24 Feb25 (wilson)GUERRERO ANDRES 122 12.00 5% 19.00    
BIRDIE CALL Jul09 Jun20 May21     (turner patt)FLORES S 119 4.50    
GOLD INCLUDED Jul18 Jul01 Jun12 May28 May09 (morris rowdy)COTTO L 122 6.00    
STARRGARITA May06 Mar05 Feb21 Feb11   (p)DE CRUZ 122 20.00    
SCR  DADDYMADEMEDOIT Jul10 May19 Apr30 Feb16 Jan13 (asmussen)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 122 2.50    
B'S LIL' BUMBLEBEE Jun13 May17 Apr29 Feb20 Jan23 (vincent jarvis)CULP BRIANNE 117 12.00    
10  RACY JAYCEE Jul21 Jun23 Jun10 Apr23 Mar23 (broberg karl)MORA GERARDO 124 2.00 36% 1.70    
 
LAD-6   07/30/2022 5490ft DIRT RC0 Allowance Purse ($21K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RANCHO BARGO Jul09 Jun19 May14 May01 Mar25 (govea cesar)COTTO L 122 12.00    
GUNNER PAUL Jul02 Jun20 Jun02 May16 Apr23 (delany s)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 122 3.50 15% 5.80    
MESABI Jun21 May29 Apr28 Apr08 Mar16 (wilson)GUERRERO ANDRES 118 4.50    
HARDCORE FOLKLORE Jul04 Jun19 May21 May07 Feb25 (turner patt)MORALES ROBERTO 122 3.50 34% 1.90    
CIROC O CLOCK Jul10 Jun20 May31 May08 Apr22 (singh s)SINGH R 119 20.00    
FRA MAURO Jun25 Jun04 May13 Apr03 Feb09 (broberg karl)MORA GERARDO 122 4.50 21% 3.90    
ALLIGATOR CRAWL Jul03 Mar26 Mar05     (gomez c)LOZADA CARLOS 120 10.00    
TALE TWISTER Jul10 Jun17 May08 Mar18 Feb23 (j)DE CRUZ 122 3.00 7% 12.50    
 
LAD-7   07/30/2022 4950ft TURF RC4 Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($10.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:49
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WESTERN STAR Jul10 Apr28 Apr09 Mar05 Feb18 (g)DE CRUZ 119 3.50    
1A  VETERAN'S HOLIDAY Jul10 Jun25 May29 May08 Mar24 (g)DE CRUZ 122 3.50    
DEALMEINBUD Jul05 Jun14 May31 Apr29 Feb11 (cates al)CULP BRIANNE 113 5.00 31% 2.30    
PROJECT THUNDER Jul11 Jun19 Jun08 May06 Apr23 (gibson)GUERRERO ANDRES 124 3.00    
WATSONS BAY Jun18 Jan13       (foster j)CASTILLO ALEXANDER 118 8.00    
OBVIOUSLY TOO Jul02 Jun18 May01 Apr16 Mar19 (hornsby tammy)COTTO L 118 5.00    
PLENTY OF CENTS Jul05 Jun14 May18 Apr25 Apr13 (prather john )LOZADA CARLOS 116 4.50 26% 2.90    
FIRST RATE (IRE) May07         (jackson richa)VARGAS P 120 6.00 14% 6.20    
ONE HITTER Feb05 Jan01       (lorick lee)SINGH R 120 30.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.