Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 19, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/19/2022 3300ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ISLAND SWAGGER         (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 119 5.00    
2  HEZMORETHANREADY         (davis chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 15.00    
3  CADILLAC CANDY Apr28         (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 32% 2.10    
4  SEISMIC SPIRIT (IRE)         (ward a)GRAHAM J 119 4.00 ★    
5  REASON'S LEGACY         (toy)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 119 6.00    
6  ROMAN GIANT Apr28         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 4.50 22% 3.60    
7  STARSTRIKER (GB) Apr10         (ward wesley )LANDEROS CHRIS 116 4.50 ★    
SCR  ALCAZABA (IRE)         (arnold r)LANERIE J 119 12.00    
SCR  JEREMY'S JET May12         (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 119 12.00    
SCR  TIVY         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 23% 3.40    
 
CD-2   05/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:29
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GO VIRTUAL Apr20         (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 2.50 66% 0.50    
SCR  ALY STONE         (hancock a)COURT K 118 15.00 ★    
3  OX DOC         (miller darrin)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 4.00 ★    
4  KEEN HEIR Mar23 Jan22       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
5  OILER Apr09 Mar05 Jan28     (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 ★    
6  SILVESTRE         (cambray ig)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 15.00    
SCR  BAD BLOOD Apr19         (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 7% 14.30    
 
CD-3   05/19/2022 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($134K) 3 F PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SUNDAY GRACE May14 May04 Mar05     (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 118 12.00    
2  LET'S BE CLEAR Apr02 Mar05       (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 13% 6.80    
3  PINKY TOE May01 Apr07       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 122 4.00 ★    
4  MUTED         (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 56% 0.80    
5  CHI TOWN LADY Apr10         (ward wesley )LANDEROS CHRIS 118 4.00 ★    
6  PARLANCE Apr30 Mar24 Feb26     (asmussen )LEPAROUX R 120 3.50 ★    
 
CD-4   05/19/2022 5280ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MCMANSION Mar20 Feb27       (williamson bri)ROCCO S 125 8.00 ★    
2  AMERICA'S PRIDE         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
3  JEWELOFAKID Apr23         (kenneally ed)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.50 10% 9.30    
4  GIN N SIN May04 Apr08       (roberson dennis)COURT K 118 10.00    
5  BUMPER GIRL         (catalano way)GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  YELLOW CREEK ROAD         (hancock joh)PETERSON FERRIN 118 15.00    
7  M M M MY SHAROANA Apr10 Mar20       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 35% 1.80    
8  SWEET BEAUTY Apr24 Mar27 Mar12 Feb11 Jan14 (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
 
CD-5   05/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Claiming ($75K) Purse ($64K) 3 ALL PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LORD ZED Apr28 Mar23 Mar03 Jan17   (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 ★    
1A  WICKED GENIUS Apr14 Feb11 Jan14     (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 2.50 64% 0.60    
2  JUST SAY WHEN Feb23         (ward wesley )LANDEROS CHRIS 118 3.00 5% 19.00    
3  BRIT'S WIT Apr16 Mar25 Feb18     (mckeever andr)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
4  LUCKY BOSS Apr29 Apr09       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 ★    
SCR  MAXIMUM IMPACT Apr27 Mar25 Feb27 Feb19 Feb10 (cash norman )BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00    
6  STOCKPILER Mar23 Feb28 Feb10 Jan15   (margolis steph)ROCCO S 118 10.00 ★    
7  KING TUFF Apr21 Mar03 Feb10     (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
8  NINETIES COUNTRY Apr16 Apr01 Mar12     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 5.00 10% 9.10    
9  DOCTOR LOVE (FR) Mar25 Jan16       (stewart dalla)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
 
CD-6   05/19/2022 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BELFAST BOY Apr07 Mar05 Feb20 Jan22 Jan01 (hiles rick)PEREIRA TIAGO 123 4.50 ★    
SCR  GRAYWING Apr20 Jan01       (hancock a)COURT K 123 15.00 11% 7.90    
3  FEROCIOUSLY Mar24 Feb12 Jan22     (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.80 22% 3.50    
4  BLAME GEORGE Apr07 Mar24 Mar04 Feb18 Jan28 (lauer mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 14% 6.30    
5  BABY QUINN May03         (garcia genar)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 2.00 24% 3.10    
6  CAN MAN DO Apr07 Mar12 Feb11 Jan01   (hobby ste)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
SCR  INDIA INK (ARG) Apr13 Mar05 Jan28     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
8  BAYTOWN WARRIOR Apr28         (mcentee paul)MAYTA J 118 30.00    
 
CD-7   05/19/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:54
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VEZPA (BRZ) Apr24         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 6.00 14% 6.00    
SCR  UNDISTURBED Apr24 Mar20 Jan21     (wilkes r)LANERIE J 122 12.00 5% 17.20    
3  FLATTER ME SILLY Apr24 Mar12 Feb12 Jan06   (pessin nei)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00    
4  CAFE FLEUR (FR) Jan29         (brown ch)SANTANA JR 122 5.00 6% 14.50    
5  LASHARA (GB) Apr24 Mar20       (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 122 12.00 6% 15.40    
6  URBAN FAIRYTALE Apr24         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00    
7  FOREVER DREAMING Apr24 Mar12 Jan23     (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 122 12.00    
8  SUNNY ONE Apr24 Mar19       (murphy co)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 124 4.00 43% 1.30    
9  JEZEBEL'S KITTEN Apr24 Mar12 Feb05     (davis chris)RISPOLI UMBERTO 122 15.00    
10  GLADYS Apr21 Mar12 Feb12 Jan29   (danner kelse)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 5.00    
11  FAIR GAME Apr24 Mar18       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 12.00    
12  LONGPANTS REQUIRED Apr09         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 122 15.00    
SCR  RUSSIAN MAFIA Mar26 Mar12 Feb13     (rodriguez ed)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
 
CD-8   05/19/2022 4290ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:23
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1A  SUNNY RIVER         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
SCR  SWIFT THINKER         (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 2.00 ★    
2  COMEDY ACT Mar20 Jan23       (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
3  DONTGETABOVURAISIN Apr15         (kenneally ed)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 12.00 8% 11.40    
4  SHEZAPISTOL Apr07         (hobby steve)GARCIA MARTIN 118 20.00    
5  HOPE AND DREAMS         (foley greg)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
6  CATWINGS Apr23 Mar09       (amoss m)DIAZ RENE 111 8.00 8% 10.80    
7  ROYAL FLOWER Feb19         (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00    
8  EIVISSA         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50    
9  COCOA COLADA Mar09         (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 8% 12.30    
10  TEXAS MELODY         (gallagher willia)BEJARANO R 124 15.00 13% 6.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.