Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Monmouth Park
Saturday - August 16, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
MTH-1   WIN (7/1/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/1/4/5)-(7/1/4/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/1/4/5)-(7/1/4/5)-(7/1/4/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (7/1/4/5)-(8/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (7/1/4/5)-(8/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
MTH-2   WIN (8/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (8/6/4)-(8/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (8/6/4)-(8/6/4)-(8/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (8/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (8/6/4)-(3/5/6/4)-(1/4/7/9/6) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
MTH-3   WIN (3/5/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4)-(3/5/6/4) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/5/6/4)-(1/4/7/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    PK3 (3/5/6/4)-(1/4/7/9/6)-(6/4/3) 60 $1.00 $60.00 
MTH-4   WIN (1/4/7/9/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (1/4/7/9/6)-(1/4/7/9/6) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (1/4/7/9/6)-(1/4/7/9/6)-(1/4/7/9/6) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (1/4/7/9/6)-(6/4/3) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (1/4/7/9/6)-(6/4/3)-(5/4/1) 45 $1.00 $45.00 
MTH-5   WIN (6/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (6/4/3)-(6/4/3)-(6/4/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (6/4/3)-(5/4/1) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (6/4/3)-(5/4/1)-(2/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
MTH-6   WIN (5/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/4/1)-(5/4/1)-(5/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/4/1)-(2/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/4/1)-(2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 24 $1.00 $24.00 
MTH-7   WIN (2/1) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (2/1)-(2/1/3) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (2/1)-(2/1/3)-(2/1/3) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 8 $1.00 $8.00 
    PK3 (2/1)-(3/6/2/1)-(7/5/9/1) 32 $1.00 $32.00 
MTH-8   WIN (3/6/2/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1)-(3/6/2/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (3/6/2/1)-(7/5/9/1) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
MTH-9   WIN (7/5/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/9/1)-(7/5/9/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/9/1)-(7/5/9/1)-(7/5/9/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MTH-1   08/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($16K) Purse ($18K) 3UP M/F PT-12:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WUDHOOH Jul24 Jun25 Jun06 Apr19 Feb20 (simoff andrew)LEON SONNY 121 6.00 23% 3.30    
SCR  BEAUTIFUL BOLT Jul13 Jun13 Feb14 Dec18 Nov13 (breen kelly )CASTILLO ISAAC 121 4.00    
3  DESIGNER BAG Jul26 Jul13 Jun08 Apr13 Feb21 (breen kell)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 110 6.00    
4  LANDOFHOPEANDREAMS Jul26 Jun26 Jun06 Aug12 Jul10 (crook-demasi)BARBOSA JEIRON 124 10.00 10% 8.60    
5  CHARLUCHE Aug02 Jul04 May29 Apr19 Feb23 (yanez reynaldo)AGUILAR JEAN 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
6  D'ORO ROAD Aug02 Jul08 May27 Mar15 Feb12 (bedard alan)BOWMAN ADAM 115 20.00    
7  RISADITA Jul26 Jun29 May25 Dec26 Nov23 (o'connell kath)MARIN SAMUEL 121 1.50 30% 2.30    
8  SARA'S ROSE Jul24 May25 May10 Apr13 Feb16 (barboza victor)CAMACHO SAMY 120 4.50    
9  STAY OPPORTUNISTIC Jul08 May20 May05 Apr09 Mar18 (brown r)MOYA F 121 30.00    
 
MTH-2   08/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($40K) Purse ($26K) 2 F PT- 1:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  QUEEN VALENTINE         (cruz jaime)CASTILLO ISAAC 118 8.00    
2  GRANDMASGOTAGUN         (ramirez l)CAMACHO SAMY 118 5.00    
SCR  COUNT MY BLESSINGS         (harris )GONZALEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
4  ICY LEGS         (jimenez jose )JARA FERNANDO 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  ALMA'S LAW         (jimenez jose)BARBOSA JEIRON 118 8.00    
6  JUSTAMOMENTPLEASE         (o'connell kathle)LEON SONNY 118 3.00 22% 3.50    
7  MISTY MONEY Jun21         (delgado jorge)OLVER MADISON 118 3.50    
8  UNFORGETABLEIMELDA Jul25         (ramirez l)MARIN SAMUEL 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
 
MTH-3   08/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($7.5K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  KING FREUD Jul26 Jun28 May25 Mar21 Feb22 (avila car)CAMACHO SAMY 121 2.50    
2  JUST BE HONEST Jul02 Jun07 May26 May11 May05 (ramirez silvin)CORREA JULIO 121 4.00    
3  FABELMAN Aug01 Jul06 Jun21 Feb02 Jan19 (ward dan)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 3.00 37% 1.70    
4  BLUE MARBLE Jul26 Jul06 Jun15 May25 May10 (mcburney patri)MARIN SAMUEL 121 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  JACKSON'S LEGACY Jul27 Jul09 Jun16 May28 May12 (ramirez silvi)OCASIO M 117 4.50 33% 2.00    
SCR  EMIRATES HONOR Aug01 Jul11 Jun21 Jun07 May25 (siculietano )BARBOSA JEIRON 120 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  MY LIAM Jul04 May29 May15 Apr24 Feb20 (ramirez)GONZALEZ LUIS 117 6.00    
 
MTH-4   08/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($21K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  POINT LIAM Jul12 Jun22 May31 Apr13 Mar14 (gomez p)GONZALEZ LUIS 122 3.50 35% 1.90    
2  CHUCK WILLIS (IRE) Mar29 Jan28 Dec27 Dec03 Nov04 (ramirez silv)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 4.00    
3  MARATHONER Jul23 Jun27 May10 Jan26 Dec11 (montoya mary)HADDOCK DEXTER 119 10.00    
4  GINS AND TINS Jul12 Jun27 May17 Oct22 Sep14 (synnefias pana)MARIN SAMUEL 122 3.00 18% 4.50    
5  MT SURIBACHI Jul19 Jul06 Sep17 Sep05 Aug29 (smylie timothy)AGUILAR JEAN 121 20.00    
6  FAYATHAAN (IRE) Jun16 May01 Jul21 Jun04 May06 (richards rena)JARA FERNANDO 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  KATIE'S NOTION Jul16 Jun14 May16 Apr25 Nov02 (mancilla carlos )LEON SONNY 121 5.00 13% 6.80    
8  CABINET PIK Jul19 Jun28 Jun01 May10 Jan01 (gomez pompeyo)COTTO L 121 30.00    
9  AL AMEEQ Jul12 Jun21 Jun05 May24 Apr21 (ness jamie)CAMACHO SAMY 121 3.50 12% 7.60    
 
MTH-5   08/16/2025 5610ft DIRT RC12 FAST Philip Purse ($250K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:51
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  OFFALY COOL Jul22 Jun28 May27 Apr09 Mar18 (solis jacinto)NO RIDER 118 5.00    
  (by KANTHAROS out of ASSURED by SIGNAL TAP)
2  SURFACE TO AIR Jul19 Jun14 Dec31 Nov16 Oct12 (synnefias pana)MARIN SAMUEL 124 4.50    
  (by MIDSHIPMAN out of SHEMAZON by CONGRATS)
3  VITALITY Jul19 Jun21 May11 Dec21 Nov24 (orseno f)LEON SONNY 118 12.00 5% 19.00    
  (by STREET BOSS out of BELISSIMO by AWESOME AGAIN)
4  REPO ROCKS Jul18 Jun13 May17 May04 Apr04 (ness jam)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 122 6.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of HAWAIIAN LOVE by NOT FOR LOVE)
5  GRAN YACO Jul19 Jul04 Jun16 Apr04 Feb26 (avila jua)VARGAS A 118 30.00    
  (by CITY OF LIGHT out of LIKE IT HOT by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
6  FIRST MISSION Jun28 Apr19 Feb23 Aug03 Jun29 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 124 0.50 72% 0.40    
  (by STREET SENSE out of ELUDE by MEDAGLIA D'ORO)
 
MTH-6   08/16/2025 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($21K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STRONG LIGHT Jul31 Jun22 Feb15 Feb01 Jan18 (samsundar ros)JARA FERNANDO 121 6.00 5% 19.00    
2  CURLIN GUNNER Jul03 Jun07 May12 Apr09 Mar17 (soto- ma)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
SCR  THREE CAPTAINS Aug09 Jun21 May25 Apr25 Mar29 (simone mic)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 114 4.00    
4  COME DREAM WITH ME Aug10 Jun07 May11 Mar14 Feb21 (ward dan)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 8.00 18% 4.50    
5  MAGICAL ROAD Aug03 Jul20 Jul05 Jun27 May11 (ramirez silvin)MARIN SAMUEL 124 2.00 33% 2.10    
6  MIDNIGHT ONYX Aug03 Jun27 Jun15 May17 Apr13 (ramirez ricard)CAMACHO SAMY 121 3.50    
7  LONELY RIDE Aug03 Jul12 Jun28 Jun14 Mar28 (hernandez enriqu)LEON SONNY 121 6.00    
 
MTH-7   08/16/2025 3630ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($21K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  I BELIEVE IN MAGIC Jul12 Jun28 Jun01 Apr18 Apr02 (bernardini j)BARBOSA JEIRON 121 12.00 21% 3.80    
2  STORMY MITOLE Jul20 Jun27 Jun20 May02 Mar20 (nunn do)GONZALEZ LUIS 121 10.00 27% 2.70    
3  MEXICAN SUGAR Jul12 Jun28 May11 Mar28 Mar09 (coletti edward)MARIN SAMUEL 122 4.00 ★    
SCR  BEDTIME STORY (IRE) Aug01 Jul11 Jun05 Apr11 Mar15 (johnston rob)JARA FERNANDO 122 3.50    
SCR  MISS M M Aug01 Jul04 Jun20 Jun07 May11 (crowell susan)OLVER MADISON 121 6.00    
6  PAGEANT PRINCESS Aug01 Sep23 Jun26 Nov02 Sep19 (crook-demasi k)CAMACHO SAMY 121 4.50    
SCR  THEODORA GRACE Aug01 Jun20 May25 Apr18 Jan04 (hernandez enriqu)LEON SONNY 121 4.00    
SCR  UNSOLVED MYSTERY Jul27 Jul11 Nov24 Sep21 Aug31 (rivera lu)VARGAS A 121 5.00    
9  REE NEE'S SIX Jul13 Jun30 May19 Apr28 Apr16 (brown ho)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 121 15.00    
SCR  SEA MAIDEN Aug02 Jul04 Jun15 Oct12 Sep27 (huston rory )CASTILLO ISAAC 119 10.00    
 
MTH-8   08/16/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($40K) Purse ($57.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  JOHN JAY Jul19 Jun15 May17 Apr27 Mar12 (mcburney patrick)LEON SONNY 121 8.00 5% 19.00    
2  RUNANDSCORE Jul22 Jul09 Jun10 May18 Apr27 (rodriguez mi)HADDOCK DEXTER 122 4.00 13% 6.40    
3  RIVER DOG Aug10 Jun15 May17 May10 Jan10 (gonzalez )VARGAS A 121 4.00 29% 2.50    
4  DOWNTOWNCHALYBROWN Jul04 Jun15 May30 Dec06 Oct12 (synnefias pana)MARIN SAMUEL 121 3.00    
5  CEEPEEGEE Jul12 May01 Apr06 Mar08 Feb17 (ward dan)CASTILLO ISAAC 121 10.00    
6  SOZE Jul30 Jul09 May26 Apr02 Mar18 (soto- ma)MARTINEZ FRANCISCO 124 3.50 22% 3.50    
7  EXPLORATION Jul16 Jun15 May17 Mar01 Jan26 (atras rob)JARA FERNANDO 121 3.50    
 
MTH-9   08/16/2025 5610ft TURF RC4 FIRM Maiden Claimer ($16K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SILENT RAGE Jul26 Jul11 Mar07 Nov20 Oct25 (ramirez jose)BARBOSA JEIRON 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
2  JOEVIA'S FIRST Aug10 Jul19 Jun27 May25 May08 (huston rory )CASTILLO ISAAC 119 6.00    
SCR  WE LIVE THIS GAME Jul20 Jun29 Jun15 May10 Jan22 (padilla-p)VARGAS A 123 1.50    
4  DISOBEDIENT BULL Aug03 Jul13       (ortega )GONZALEZ LUIS 119 15.00    
5  TAPSTICK May18 Apr13       (sacco gregory )MARIN SAMUEL 119 3.00 19% 4.10    
6  VALID CONNECTION Jun08 Dec08 Nov14 Sep28   (bernardini ju)JARA FERNANDO 119 30.00    
7  MERGING TRAFFIC Aug06 Jul12 Jun29 Jun14 Dec04 (truehart jen)HADDOCK DEXTER 123 5.00 46% 1.20    
SCR  UNION PURRFECTION Aug09 Jul16 Jul09 May26   (pino micha)MARAGH CHRISTIAN 110 6.00    
9  QUANTUM NUMBER         (pantaleo jose)OLVER MADISON 119 10.00 6% 14.60    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.