Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Fairmount Park
Saturday - May 17, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

FP-1   WIN (6/3/10/5/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (6/3/10/5/2)-(6/3/10/5/2) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (6/3/10/5/2)-(6/3/10/5/2)-(6/3/10/5/2) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
    DD (6/3/10/5/2)-(4/2/6) 15 $1.00 $15.00 
    PK3 (6/3/10/5/2)-(4/2/6)-(1/2/6/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 
FP-2   WIN (4/2/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (4/2/6)-(4/2/6)-(4/2/6) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (4/2/6)-(1/2/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (4/2/6)-(1/2/6/5)-(5/3/7) 36 $0.50 $18.00 
FP-3   WIN (1/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5)-(1/2/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (1/2/6/5)-(5/3/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (1/2/6/5)-(5/3/7)-(4/3/6/5) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
FP-4   WIN (5/3/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/3/7)-(5/3/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/3/7)-(5/3/7)-(5/3/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/3/7)-(4/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/3/7)-(4/3/6/5)-(7/3/5/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
FP-5   WIN (4/3/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (4/3/6/5)-(4/3/6/5) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (4/3/6/5)-(4/3/6/5)-(4/3/6/5) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (4/3/6/5)-(7/3/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (4/3/6/5)-(7/3/5/8)-(5/4/3/2) 64 $0.50 $32.00 
FP-6   WIN (7/3/5/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/3/5/8)-(7/3/4/5/8) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    TRI (7/3/5/8)-(7/3/4/5/8)-(7/3/4/5/8) 48 $0.50 $24.00 
    DD (7/3/5/8)-(5/4/3/2) 16 $1.00 $16.00 
    PK3 (7/3/5/8)-(5/4/3/2)-(7/8/2/4/5) 80 $0.50 $40.00 
FP-7   WIN (5/4/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (5/4/3/2)-(5/4/3/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (5/4/3/2)-(5/4/3/2)-(5/4/3/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (5/4/3/2)-(7/8/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
FP-8   WIN (7/8/2/4/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 
    EXA (7/8/2/4/5)-(7/8/2/4/5) 20 $1.00 $20.00 
    TRI (7/8/2/4/5)-(7/8/2/4/5)-(7/8/2/4/5) 60 $0.50 $30.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
FP-1   05/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($7.5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  MALIBU FINALE Apr27 Apr06 Mar30 Dec21 Nov02 (watkins m)FELIX E 118 4.50    
AMERICAN CAUSE Mar29 Mar08 Dec21 Nov20 Nov02 (clay pat)SANTOS ADEMAR 126 20.00 5% 19.00    
LAST RETURN         (blea tony)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 126 10.00 16% 5.20    
FORT GRIMES Nov02         (bahena)ORTEGA JOSEPH 118 20.00    
RECAUSE Sep17         (wainwright joh)DIEGO JAVIER 118 8.00 9% 10.10    
WARRIOR OF GOLD May03 Mar12 Jan18 May31   (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 118 2.50 35% 1.90    
MY SECRET Sep21 Aug17 Aug03 Jul20 Jul06 (laux clay)CENTENO ALEXIS 126 3.50    
IMA CHUNKY MONKEY Aug31         (wells duane)LOPEZ A 118 20.00    
SCR  CRUISER SONG Nov02         (watkins m)ORTIZ ALVIN 126 15.00    
10  SOUTH OF BIRMINHAM Mar14 Feb22 Jan23 Jan04 Dec05 (delong ben)GILES EMMANUEL 126 6.00 9% 10.00    
 
FP-2   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($12K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TIZWOW Nov02 Aug27 Aug13 Jul09 Jun11 (retana gabe)WALES T 124 10.00    
FLASH CADILLAC Oct15 Sep17 Aug31 Jul23 Jul09 (manley steve)SANTOS ADEMAR 116 2.00 21% 3.80    
PETE'S LEGACY Nov02 Oct24 Oct12 Oct01 Sep14 (essenpreis )ARRIETA REYNIER 124 10.00    
GOLDEN BUCK Oct17 Sep29 Aug26 Aug12 Jul28 (watkins jam)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 3.00 48% 1.10    
MERLOTTI Apr29 Jan02 Nov22 Nov01 Sep26 (wainwright john)FELIX E 124 4.00    
SOLOMON VANDY Nov02 Oct19 Oct01 Sep14 Aug17 (straub ma)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 12.00 7% 14.00    
TRICKY MOMENT Oct22 Oct08 Sep17 Aug31 Aug10 (martin dawn)DIEGO JAVIER 116 6.00    
 
FP-3   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($14K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:20
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BERNIE LOMAX Oct31 Oct12 Sep24 Sep05 Aug17 (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.00 50% 1.00    
ONE PUTT RICHIE Apr10 Mar27 Dec13 Nov30 Nov07 (martinez ralph )ORTIZ ALVIN 124 3.00 15% 5.80    
LAKE MILLS Oct31 Oct19 Sep28 Sep07 Aug22 (martinez )BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 4.00    
GIRLOLAMO'GLORY Oct01 Aug31 Aug10 Jul09 Jun22 (plasters lori)FELIX E 124 10.00    
SWAGGY GEORGE Apr26 Oct17 Oct05 Sep14 Aug31 (durham mike)WALES T 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
FULL MAGAZINE Oct29 Oct19 Sep28 Sep17 Sep03 (essenpreis ed)SANTOS ADEMAR 124 6.00 7% 12.70    
MUNNYCANTBUYMELOVE Oct31 Oct12 Sep27 Sep14 Sep06 (durham mik)HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 12.00    
 
FP-4   05/17/2025 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($15K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BUREAU Oct29 Oct01 Aug27 Jul23 Jun11 (watkins jam)ARRIETA REYNIER 124 10.00    
SCR  RED LABEL Apr26 Apr03 Jul14 Jun16 May04 (lynch harry)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 8.00    
RUSSIAN TO WIN Apr06 Mar08 Jan19 Oct08 Sep22 (hernandez)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 124 3.00 20% 4.00    
DUST DANCER (GB) Oct29 Oct19 Sep28 Sep14 Aug27 (rodriguez )HERNANDEZ ISRAEL 124 10.00    
SPYCRAFT Apr24 Dec27 Dec06 Nov16 Oct06 (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 2.00 58% 0.70    
SCR  MIRI A COINCIDENCE Apr26 Apr13 Mar30 Mar08 Feb02 (becker scott)WALES T 124 4.00    
FEVER NATION Apr26 Jan03 Oct29 Sep03 Aug10 (manley steve)ORTIZ ALVIN 124 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
FP-5   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:10
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RUNNINGFORCASH Apr13 Nov30 Nov02 Oct17 Sep28 (martinez ralph )ORTIZ ALVIN 124 4.00    
GOLD SMOKE Apr26 Oct17 Aug29 Aug06 Jul23 (essenpreis edward)FELIX E 124 12.00    
KING CAB Apr26 Mar29 Nov08 Sep22 Aug17 (irion heath)ARRIETA REYNIER 124 2.00 23% 3.40    
MEGAN'S HONOR Apr26 Aug08 Jul07 Jun09 May26 (becker scott)WALES T 124 3.00 41% 1.40    
ST. LOUIE LOUIE Apr26 Oct26 Oct08 Sep21 Sep07 (becker sc)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
CLYDE'S GREEN GO Apr26 Apr10 Sep05 Jul27 Jun02 (pompell rober)SANTOS ADEMAR 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
IRISH DECLARATION Nov21 Sep28 Sep10 Aug20 Jul30 (martinez a)LOPEZ A 124 6.00    
 
FP-6   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($27K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:35
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAMAS FIRE Apr06 Oct29 Oct15 Oct01 Aug31 (pompell robert)LOPEZ A 124 20.00    
WESLAN Oct15 Aug31 Jul27 Jul06 Jun09 (wainwright john)WALES T 124 10.00    
RAVIN'S RANSOM Apr29 Oct29 Jul14     (rivelli larry)FELIX E 118 3.00 16% 5.50    
GOD GUNS N GUTS Jan26 Oct13 Sep05 Aug11 Jul18 (rodriguez jo)GILES EMMANUEL 124 4.00    
RHODIUMS PRIDE Dec07 Oct29 Oct19 Oct05 Sep21 (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
PONTUS Oct29 Oct15 Sep24 Aug17 Jun30 (plasters lori)SANTOS ADEMAR 124 6.00    
INDYVILLE Oct29 Oct06 Aug11     (boyce michel)CENTENO ALEXIS 116 2.00 61% 0.60    
HAND OVER MY HEART Oct29 Oct15 Oct01 Sep17 Aug24 (essenpreis )ARRIETA REYNIER 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
COOLTHING Apr03 Oct29 Sep28 Sep10 Aug24 (lynch e)ORTIZ ALVIN 116 20.00    
 
FP-7   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($25K) Purse ($17.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAPICITA Apr22 Oct26 Oct08 Sep24 Sep07 (durham mike)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 12.00    
AROSE FOR LYLA Apr22 Oct29 Oct19 Oct01 Sep10 (essenpreis ed)SANTOS ADEMAR 124 8.00 5% 19.00    
FROSTED ECLAIR Apr22 Oct26 Oct12 Sep26 Sep01 (watkins jam)ARRIETA REYNIER 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
WILDWOOD POSSE Apr22 Oct26 Oct12 Sep17 Aug20 (becker sc)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 124 2.50 17% 4.80    
GHAALEB'S HONOR Oct29 Oct01 Aug24 Jul27 Jun22 (becker scott)WALES T 124 4.50 56% 0.80    
SCR  MISS TENA MARIE Apr22 Oct26 Oct12 Sep24 Aug27 (burdess terry)LOPEZ A 124 10.00    
DOCS SEVEN Apr22 Mar29 Jan02 Dec04 Oct26 (manley ste)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 3.50    
RONAN Apr22 Oct01 Sep10 Aug10 Jul16 (quinonez max)FELIX E 124 6.00    
 
FP-8   05/17/2025 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:25
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SUPER SILVER Oct17 Oct05 Sep14 Aug24 Aug10 (nesbitt amy)REYES FRANK 124 15.00    
TAPIT SAM Oct31 Oct17 Sep17 Sep07 Aug20 (randazzo c)LOPEZ A 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
I'M YOUR VALENTINE Oct19 Oct01 Sep17 Sep03 Aug10 (martinez-linar)DIEGO JAVIER 124 8.00    
CHARLIE LIGHTNING Nov02 Oct17 Sep22 Aug22 Aug04 (retana gabe)ORTIZ ALVIN 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
AVIANO Oct24 Oct13 Sep10 Aug20 Jul06 (randazzo )GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 124 20.00 5% 19.00    
DEMAND RANSOM Apr26 Oct29 Oct22 Oct13 Oct03 (hughes earl)ARRIETA REYNIER 124 6.00    
KING DOODLE Oct31 Oct22 Oct05 Sep14 Apr16 (becker scott)WALES T 124 3.50 60% 0.70    
MAQAMAT Aug22 Jul28 Jul11 Jun04 May26 (plasters lori)FELIX E 124 2.50 9% 9.70    
AFRICAN WARRIOR Oct31 Oct22 Sep24 Sep14 Sep03 (foxworth leo)GILES EMMANUEL 124 20.00    
10  OFF TO THE RACES Apr26 Nov02 Oct22 Oct05 Sep03 (watkins jam)SANTIAGO VICTOR 124 4.50    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.