Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Arapahoe Park
Friday - September 20, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
ARP-3   WIN (5/4) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/4)-(5/4) 2 $1.00 $2.00 
    TRI NO BET 0 $0.50 $0.00 
    PK3 (5/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/4/1) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
ARP-4   WIN (3/6/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/6/4)-(3/6/4)-(3/6/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/6/4)-(3/4/1)-(3/5/4) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
ARP-5   WIN (3/4/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/4/1)-(3/4/1)-(3/4/1) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    PK3 (3/4/1)-(3/5/4)-(3/8/7/2) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
ARP-6   WIN (3/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/5/4)-(3/5/4)-(3/5/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/5/4)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
ARP-7   WIN (3/8/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2)-(3/8/7/2) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
ARP-3   09/20/2024 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($21K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FLY FREE Sep09 Aug12 Jul29 Jul08   (kemper kerry)RAMOS B 122 3.50    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of R S JOY by KITTEN'S JOY)
2  MISS YOU NO MORE Aug25 Jul24 Jul14 Jun23 Apr05 (rushton st)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 122 2.50    
  (by ELMAZEED out of MISS YOU HOME by FIVE STAR DAY)
SCR  MY CALLIE GIRL         (rushton s)IRONEYES R 119 8.00    
  (by APACHE PARK out of MISSY WILDCAT by FOREST WILDCAT)
4  DIXIE CUP MARTINI         (kemper kerry)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
  (by TAPITURE out of KIND TURN by STREET CRY (IRE))
5  I'M A TRUMPER Sep09 Aug12 Jul29     (kemper kerry)CARDOSO DAVID 122 4.50 45% 1.20    
  (by SAVE BIG MONEY out of SWEETPRINCESSCHARM by SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT)
 
ARP-4   09/20/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($10.2K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SHAKINTHEMONARCHY Sep06 Aug24 Aug10 Jul20 Jul14 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 122 2.50    
2  UNUSUAL WIN Sep07 Aug17 Jul19 May18 Mar24 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 6.00    
3  TIZKANDOIT Jun28 Apr05 Mar22 Mar08 Dec13 (rushton t)IRONEYES R 119 3.50 53% 0.90    
4  ENDALE ARCH Aug30 Aug17 Aug04 Jul20 Jun15 (lavanway dayso)MCNEIL BRYAN 124 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SASSY B KEEN Sep09 Aug23 Jul29 Jul10 Jun21 (ramaekers eric)RAMOS B 124 5.00    
6  BIGPARTY NOWHISKEY Sep06 Jun09 May26 Apr19 Oct27 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 121 4.50 23% 3.40    
 
ARP-5   09/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($5K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DONNA LIRICA Sep08 Sep01 Aug17 Aug11 Jul27 (ibanez alberto)RAMOS B 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
2  FLO TIME Jul21 Jun23 Apr11 Oct11 Sep09 (martinez o)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 4.50    
3  AMY D Aug25 Aug11 Aug04 Jun22 Jun08 (lavanway )IRONEYES R 119 6.00 56% 0.80    
4  MRS. KRINKLES Aug17 Aug04 Jul21 Jun30 Apr26 (mckinney kyn)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 3.50 12% 7.00    
5  JAZZ BRUNCH Jun30 Jun22 Jun09 Jun02 May25 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50    
 
ARP-6   09/20/2024 3630ft DIRT RC6 FAST Optional Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($11.8K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SUBSIDIZE Sep02 Aug24 Aug11 Jul27 Jul06 (williams )IRONEYES R 119 3.50    
2  JUST PLAIN ORNERY Aug18 Jul27 Jul13 Jul03 Jun09 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 10.00    
3  MY LITTLE PRINCE Sep07 Aug11 Jul20 Jul13 Jun01 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 2.50 26% 2.90    
4  TIMEHASCOME Sep01 Aug17 Aug04 Jun02 May15 (ramaekers eric)RAMOS B 124 6.00 16% 5.10    
5  MINOSO Aug31 Aug18 Aug03 Jul14 Jun18 (piantes jo)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 124 4.50 21% 3.80    
 
ARP-7   09/20/2024 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($15K) Purse ($18K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CREDIT RATING Sep07 Aug25 Jul21 Jul13 Jun23 (rushton stetson)HAAR NATHAN 124 2.50    
2  SCOOTER'S BOY Sep05 Aug24 Aug10 Jul27 Jul10 (ramaeker)BENN J 124 10.00 5% 19.00    
3  LIGHTNING STRUCK Sep08 Aug10 Jul10 Jun24 Jun07 (kemper ke)IRONEYES R 119 4.50 34% 2.00    
4  TUFF WILLY TE Aug19 Aug05 Jul08 Jun01 Sep10 (parsons ri)FIGUEROA CERAPIO 121 6.00    
SCR  ROMAN GIANT Aug10 Jul22 Jun30 Jun07 May25 (mcdonald william )RAMOS B 124 5.00    
6  THREE FOR THREE Aug16 Jul20 Jun28 Jun07 Sep10 (parsons riley)MCNEIL BRYAN 121 10.00    
7  BRANNIGAN Sep05 Aug25 Aug11 Aug03 Jul20 (lavanway day)AGUILAR DANIEL 124 12.00 8% 10.90    
8  DRIVEHAPPY Sep08 Aug07 Jul14 Jul03 Jun21 (hibdon n)CARDOSO DAVID 124 3.50 33% 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.