Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - May 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  TONAL IMPACT Apr15 Mar11 Feb13 Jan21 Jan05 (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 3.00 ★    
2  CARMICHAEL Feb11 Jan12       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 124 2.50 8% 11.10    
3  NAVAL AVIATOR Apr29 Apr09       (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 1.80 11% 8.30    
4  LEMONADEATTHELATCH Mar19 Feb16 Jan07     (jacobson matthe)LANERIE J 118 3.00 55% 0.80    
5  NOTABLE EXCEPTION Apr20 Jan07       (pincins robert)MILLER CHASE 124 8.00 ★    
 
CD-2   05/21/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  RUNNIN HAPPY Apr13 Feb06       (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00 15% 5.50    
2  DALLAS VOLUNTEER Mar16 Feb18 Jan20     (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.50 9% 10.10    
3  FABRICATE Apr24 Mar06 Jan20     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 123 1.60 ★    
4  SWEET CONFUSION Mar19 Feb21 Jan28     (hartman chris)LANERIE J 123 8.00 ★    
5  MOHAYLADY May03 Apr08 Feb20 Jan22   (danner doug)DIAZ RENE 111 6.00    
6  ALTERED SHOT Apr30 Mar19       (foley greg)GRAHAM J 125 1.80 44% 1.30    
 
CD-3   05/21/2022 5280ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PINE KNOLL Apr20 Mar19 Jan13     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 122 2.00 16% 5.40    
2  STREET READY Apr20 Mar13       (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 5.00    
3  MEGACITY Apr10         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 122 3.00 8% 11.00    
4  MIDNIGHT TEA TIME Apr10 Mar12       (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 2.50 27% 2.70    
5  WHISKEY DOUBLE Mar05 Feb19 Jan02     (maker michae)CASTELLANO J 122 6.00 ★    
6  PERFECT SPEIGHTY May07 Mar18 Feb14     (stewart dallas)GRAHAM J 122 10.00    
SCR  DENNIS' MOMENT Apr29 Feb27 Jan29     (romans dale)LANERIE J 122 1.60 25% 3.10    
 
CD-4   05/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PARK ON THE NILE May06 Apr08       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 5.00 ★    
2  CASA DE GOAT Apr23         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 1.40 11% 8.40    
3  H. T. XENA Apr16 Feb22 Jan15     (tomlinson mi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 10.00 9% 9.70    
4  PLAYED HARD         (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 124 1.20 54% 0.90    
5  SUNNY ISLE BEACH Apr24 Apr08 Mar19 Mar06 Jan14 (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 124 10.00 ★    
6  SALUTE THE FLAG Mar31 Feb13       (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 126 8.00    
 
CD-5   05/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRACING NASTY Apr02 Feb18       (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 10.00 12% 7.60    
2  HAZY COMMAND Apr10 Feb18 Jan22     (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 30% 2.40    
3  ROOKERY May05 Mar19 Feb24 Jan29   (catalano wayn)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00    
4  WINGS OF AN ANGEL May05 Mar06 Feb12 Jan07   (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 4.50 ★    
5  BOMBDIGGITY Apr10 Feb18       (asmussen )LEPAROUX R 118 1.80 36% 1.80    
6  MINER'S QUEEN Feb24         (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 123 12.00 ★    
7  PATHETIQUE Jan29         (bauer a)BEJARANO R 123 4.00    
 
CD-6   05/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BEAUTIFUL FAREWELL Apr27 Mar18 Feb11     (medina rober)CASTELLANO J 124 8.00 8% 10.90    
2  MUSICAL DESIGN Apr22 Mar16       (ward a)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 33% 2.10    
3  HEY THERE Apr27         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 3.00    
4  LEAVE IT BE Apr27         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
5  HONORABLY Apr22 Mar18 Feb18     (walsh brenda)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 10.00 8% 10.80    
6  BROADWAY BLAZE         (pitts helen)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
7  MS MERRABEL Apr22         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00    
8  STAGE QUEEN         (tomlinson mic)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00    
9  AIR OF AUTHORITY         (lynch brian)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 10.00    
10  MOST EMPRESSIVE Apr27 Mar23 Feb28 Jan23   (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00    
11  JALEBI BABY Apr15 Mar23       (flint s)COHEN DAVID 118 50.00    
12  WINGS LIKE EAGLES         (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 15.00    
SCR  LITTLE JEWEL         (vaccarezza car)LEZCANO ABEL 124 15.00    
SCR  JAZZ TIME GIRL Apr22         (maker mich)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  SHADES OF BLUE         (vaughan edwa)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 30.00    
SCR  LADY PELE Apr22         (blair jordan)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
SCR  LITTLE MOMBO Apr07 Feb26 Jan23     (bauer philip )GARCIA MARTIN 118 2.50 26% 2.80    
 
CD-7   05/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COCO PUFF Apr27 Mar26 Mar01 Feb05 Jan08 (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 111 5.00 ★    
2  OLIVIA'S JOY         (gil)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 124 20.00    
3  ON THE RISE Apr22 Feb03       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 124 3.00 32% 2.20    
SCR  SUPER CHRISTIE May06 Apr15 Mar09     (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 118 4.00 ★    
5  SHES GREEKANDSLEEK May05         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 2.50 43% 1.40    
SCR  WICKED LADY         (mcpeek kennet)PEREIRA TIAGO 118 5.00 ★    
7  LADY TERRA         (amoss thomas )MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00    
8  SHE'S REDNECKER         (walsh br)SANTANA JR 118 10.00    
 
CD-8   05/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ESKENFORIT May12 Mar26 Jan23 Jan01   (garcia genaro)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 15.00    
2  BALLINONABUDJET Apr27 Mar27 Mar05 Feb05 Jan15 (lovell miche)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 5.00 ★    
3  LORD DRAGON Apr22 Mar26 Mar01 Jan29   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 21% 3.80    
4  RUNNIN' RAY Apr02 Feb19 Jan08     (sharp joe)GARCIA MARTIN 118 0.80 39% 1.60    
5  ZANESVILLE Jan10         (leonard i)BEJARANO R 118 6.00 ★    
6  THE STIFF Apr01 Feb10       (mccarthy michael )DIAZ RENE 111 12.00    
7  MY BETS         (sims a)TALAMO JOSEPH 113 15.00    
8  MY BARILEY Apr27 Mar11 Mar01 Jan10   (leonard georg)MORALES EDGAR 118 10.00 13% 7.00    
 
CD-9   05/21/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAQAMAT Apr22 Apr09       (engler jeff)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00    
2  KANSAS COMET Apr16         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
3  SHIPMAN         (gre)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 125 20.00    
4  PANCAKE HOUSE Apr29         (drury thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 3.00 45% 1.20    
5  CREATIVE MIRACLE         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 16% 5.10    
6  A LATE ONE         (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00    
7  THOUGHT Apr24         (asmussen steven )BEJARANO R 118 12.00    
8  CLASSIC MARK Apr14 Mar06 Feb12 Jan22   (callaghan sim)GARCIA MARTIN 118 3.50    
9  KENTUCKY MIST Apr24         (dyer john)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 30.00    
10  MIZZEN MAN Apr16 Mar26 Mar03 Feb17 Jan17 (flint bern)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
11  DEEP STATE Apr03 Mar09 Feb06 Jan09   (lynch bri)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 8.00 ★    
SCR  BLUE DEVIL Apr02         (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 4.00 ★    
13  GOOD SOLDIER         (joseph saffi)CASTELLANO J 118 12.00    
SCR  SAILOR'S RETURN May05 Mar18 Feb20 Jan21 Jan03 (habeeb donald )SAEZ GABRIEL 125 15.00    
SCR  THE CLOWN         (mate)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 20.00    
SCR  POLSAR Mar03 Feb03 Jan07     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 125 15.00    
SCR  SUPERCOOL Mar11 Jan23       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 3.00 16% 5.20    
 
CD-10   05/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 SLOPPY Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 5:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROOKLYN DIAMONDS Apr16 Mar26       (brisset rod)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 3.00 50% 1.00    
SCR  KUCHAR Apr23 Mar13 Feb12     (brisset rod)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 3.00    
2  BODOCK Apr02 Feb19 Jan15     (cox brad )LEPAROUX R 118 6.00    
3  AMERICAN PURE Apr20 Mar12 Feb16     (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 4.00 22% 3.50    
4  RATTLE N ROLL Apr09 Mar26 Mar05     (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 2.00 ★    
5  HOWLING TIME Apr16 Mar05       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 ★    
6  CLANCY'S PISTOL Apr23 Apr01 Mar04 Feb21 Jan22 (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00    
7  DROPPIN G'S Apr29 Apr02 Mar17 Mar05 Feb11 (antonuik jerry)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 ★    
 
CD-11   05/21/2022 7920ft TURF RC5 GOOD Grade III Stake/Handicap Purse ($200K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:58
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAMA BREEZE Apr23 Jan29       (arnold r)LANERIE J 118 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of STELLA BLUE (FR) by ANABAA)
2  CAVALRY CHARGE May07 Mar26 Feb19 Jan22   (stewart dallas)COHEN DAVID 118 12.00    
  (by HONOR CODE out of SWEET TALKIN by CANDY RIDE (ARG))
3  BLANKET OF ROSES Apr22 Apr02 Mar18 Feb23   (hernandez rey)MORALES EDGAR 118 50.00    
  (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of SMITTENWITHKITTEN by KITTEN'S JOY)
4  CIBOLIAN Apr22         (brisset rodo)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of YADIRA by PULPIT)
5  AJOURNEYTOFREEDOM Jan30         (maker michae)CASTELLANO J 118 5.00 29% 2.50    
  (by HARD SPUN out of IMPRECATION by FIRST DEFENCE)
6  STRONG TIDE Apr03 Feb25 Jan30 Jan09   (lauer mic)PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 10.00 7% 13.70    
  (by ENGLISH CHANNEL out of DREAMIN BIG by STUTZ BLACKHAWK)
7  MODUS OPERANDI (IRE) May12 Apr22 Mar18 Feb13   (walsh brendan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
  (by FRANKEL (GB) out of AULD ALLIANCE by MONTJEU (IRE))
8  ANOTHER MYSTERY Apr23 Mar26 Jan30     (block chri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 6.00 34% 1.90    
  (by TEMPLE CITY out of IOYA TWO by LORD AT WAR (ARG))
9  CAMP HOPE Apr20         (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 ★    
  (by SUMMER FRONT out of PRAISING by PULPIT)
10  SHAMROCKET Mar27 Mar05 Jan22 Jan15   (pletcher to)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 4.00 8% 11.30    
  (by TONALIST out of ZEHOORR by STORM CAT)
11  CULLUM ROAD Apr23 Mar26       (danner doug)CANNON DECLAN 118 30.00    
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of R CHARLIE'S ANGEL by INDIAN CHARLIE)
12  HIGHEST HONORS Apr10 Feb12 Jan15     (brown ch)SANTANA JR 118 8.00    
  (by TAPIT out of TAP YOUR FEET by DIXIELAND BAND)
13  CELLIST Apr27 Feb05       (arnold ge)LEPAROUX R 118 10.00    
  (by BIG BLUE KITTEN out of CELLO by STROLLING ALONG)
14  REIGNING SPIRIT Apr22 Mar20 Feb19     (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
  (by WAR FRONT out of UPPERLINE by MARIA'S MON)
SCR  CELERITY May03 Apr22 Apr02 Jan16   (cundiff w)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 50.00    
  (by CITY ZIP out of ALPINE GARDEN by LEMON DROP KID)
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.