Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Sunday - May 15, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($46K) 3 F PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOON OVER TUSCANY Mar16 Mar06 Feb12 Jan09   (scherer mari)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 5.00 ★    
2  CAIRO DRIVER Apr20 Mar19 Mar04 Feb11 Jan07 (west w)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 18% 4.50    
3  ECLIPSED Apr10 Mar04 Jan01     (hancock a)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 ★    
4  KISS ME SMILE Mar19 Feb19       (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 41% 1.40    
5  J ZERTZ Mar03         (correas i)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 17% 4.90    
6  T. K.'S JOKER Mar02 Jan13       (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
 
CD-2   05/15/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FAITH RUNNER Mar03 Jan22       (stewart da)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 12.00    
2  TEMPO MADNESS Mar17         (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00    
3  TIM TAL Apr09 Mar05 Feb10     (reed r)LEON SONNY 118 12.00    
4  SPUNS SON May07 Apr16 Mar25     (tay)FRANKO-ANGELES GEOVANNI 118 30.00    
5  DINI D'AMORE Apr16         (walsh bren)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00    
6  CORRENTE DE OURO Feb11 Jan10       (barkley jas)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
7  FRONTAL ASSAULT Apr29 Mar25       (raines lindsey)MACHADO LUAN 118 20.00    
8  OLD HICKORY Mar27 Mar11       (flint bernard)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 15.00    
9  SOSUA SUMMER Apr02 Mar05 Feb19 Jan30 Jan06 (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 1.60 26% 2.90    
10  CHASING THE CROWN Apr16 Feb26       (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 7% 13.90    
11  TEPEU Mar26 Feb19       (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 8% 11.00    
12  TOUCH CODE Mar19 Feb12 Jan08     (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 118 15.00 5% 18.80    
SCR  TRUMPETS BLARE Apr09         (wilkes r)BECKMAN ALICE 111 15.00    
SCR  WIKING         (lynch a)PEREIRA TIAGO 118 12.00    
SCR  BLUE DEVIL Apr02         (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 4.00    
SCR  BAD TO THE BONES         (motion graham)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
SCR  BEST BET Apr22 Mar25 Mar04 Jan09   (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 125 1.20 33% 2.00    
 
CD-3   05/15/2022 5940ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:43
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ENGLISH CHALLENGE Apr21 Mar26 Mar17 Feb17   (estvanko )GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 118 3.00 12% 7.40    
1A  YOUVESAIDITALL May05 Mar19 Feb24 Jan09   (estvanko )GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 118 3.00    
2  BOBBY BABY May05 Apr15 Jan14 Jan02   (navarrete anna)LEON SONNY 118 12.00    
3  TIZ LIGHT THE WAY Mar06 Feb14 Jan07     (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 1.40 24% 3.20    
4  EAGLE PASS Apr23 Apr09 Mar05 Feb19 Jan08 (vance dav)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00 8% 11.50    
5  TO KALON Apr21 Feb16       (cundiff waylon)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 ★    
6  FAMILY MAN Apr14         (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.80 35% 1.90    
 
CD-4   05/15/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($42K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRINCE OF GLORY Apr20         (mcgee paul)DIAZ RENE 111 8.00    
SCR  BEACH HOLIDAY Apr14 Mar31 Mar05 Feb10   (holsapple )VILLASANA CARLOS 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
3  BROWN DELIVERS Apr13 Mar03 Feb16     (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.00 47% 1.10    
4  MASTER LEA Apr02 Feb26 Feb12 Jan07   (bahena isma)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00 ★    
5  DOVER STRAIT Apr24 Mar11 Feb18 Jan28   (heitzman )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 20.00    
6  BRIGHT SPARK Apr27         (engler jeff)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00    
7  CARNIVORE Mar19 Mar06 Feb12 Jan21   (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 4.50 8% 11.60    
8  ISTHMIAN Apr20 Mar19 Feb19 Jan29 Jan08 (gutierre)SANTANA JR 118 6.00    
9  WINTER'S GHOST Apr23 Mar20 Jan21     (ali alnaz)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 8.00    
10  PROUD UNION Apr22 Mar17       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 125 5.00 17% 4.80    
 
CD-5   05/15/2022 3300ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COMMANDERS PALACE Apr23 Feb25       (casse mark)GEROUX FLORENT 123 20.00    
2  SPARKLE OF HOPE Feb24         (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 20.00    
3  SAND AND SEA Apr22 Mar27       (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 123 3.50 17% 4.90    
4  LADY DANAE         (asmussen ste)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
5  CRUZ BAY Apr22         (sharp jo)SANTANA JR 123 6.00    
6  KONA KAI Apr22         (blair jorda)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 15.00    
7  BOUT TIME Mar24 Jan28       (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 123 4.00 11% 8.50    
8  ONLY KIDDING Apr22 Mar06 Feb03     (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.00 12% 7.20    
9  BLAZING SUMMER         (ortiz alexan)DIAZ RENE 111 20.00    
10  NOTA BENE Apr22 Mar18 Jan01     (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 15.00 8% 11.80    
11  SOCIAL MANDATE Apr10 Jan08       (hancock joh)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00    
12  GIVERNY Feb03         (mott william )TALAMO JOSEPH 123 6.00    
SCR  HER WORLD (IRE) Apr15         (ward a)GRAHAM J 118 1.20 19% 4.40    
SCR  MINER'S QUEEN Feb24         (hernandez rey)BEJARANO R 123 20.00    
SCR  PATHETIQUE Jan29         (bauer phil)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 15.00    
SCR  IRON LADY AWAY Apr22 Feb25       (pitts c)CASTANON L 123 20.00    
 
CD-6   05/15/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:18
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FACT FINDING Apr02 Jan28       (diodoro roberti)COHEN DAVID 118 2.00 15% 5.50    
2  ESTABLISHED Feb19         (baltas rich)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 6.00 14% 6.20    
3  DEFENDER Apr09 Mar13 Feb19     (asmussen s)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 1.40 26% 2.80    
4  C FALLS Apr29 Mar19 Feb26 Jan28   (hartman ch)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
5  OURNATIONONPARADE Apr29 Mar01 Feb05 Jan01   (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 9% 10.10    
SCR  HEMP HEAVEN Apr27 Jan02       (wittek karyn)COURT K 118 15.00    
7  FORE LEFT Apr17 Feb27 Jan21     (vanden berg )LANDEROS CHRIS 118 6.00 ★    
 
CD-7   05/15/2022 5610ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($127K) 3 ALL PT- 3:50
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ST ANDREWS Apr16 Jan22       (asmussen st)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 6.00 14% 6.20    
SCR  BROOKLYN DIAMONDS Apr16 Mar26       (brisset ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 ★    
SCR  MAXIMUM IMPACT Apr27 Mar25 Feb27 Feb19 Feb10 (cash l)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00    
3  KITODAN Apr02 Mar06 Feb06     (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 28% 2.60    
4  FREEDOM'S WAY Apr16 Feb19       (kenneally ed)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.00    
5  MR. BOUMA Feb05         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
SCR  MAINTAINER Apr09 Mar05 Feb12     (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 20.00    
7  PLAY ACTION PASS Apr16         (medina rob)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
SCR  DOUBLE CLUTCH Apr16 Feb26       (arnold r)LANERIE J 122 3.50 5% 19.00    
9  GOLD HERITAGE         (mckeever andrew)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00    
10  BRITAIN'S KITTEN Apr23         (williamso)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00 ★    
SCR  SETNA THE WISE Apr16 Mar03       (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 118 15.00    
SCR  BEST ACTOR Apr16         (cox brad)SANTANA JR 118 2.00 31% 2.20    
 
CD-8   05/15/2022 4290ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PRIME FACTOR Mar05 Jan23       (devaux ch)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00 15% 5.70    
2  SAVVY Apr09         (danner kels)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 20.00    
3  VIOLENT CITY Apr16 Feb05 Jan07     (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 121 6.00    
4  SOUP AND SANDWICH Apr16 Mar05 Feb05     (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 24% 3.20    
5  BRIEFCASE BULLY         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 121 8.00    
6  COLTONATOR May03 Jan14       (foley gr)SANTANA JR 121 4.00 ★    
7  DIVINE LEADER May05 Feb12 Jan23     (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.00 16% 5.40    
8  THERIDEOFALIFETIME Apr16         (correas iv)GRAHAM J 121 10.00 14% 6.10    
 
CD-9   05/15/2022 5280ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SPARE CASH Apr27 Mar24 Feb11     (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 63% 0.60    
SCR  GIRL COME RUNNING         (kenneally edd)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00    
3  TODO SOLA Apr08 Feb19       (beckman whitw)COHEN DAVID 118 20.00    
4  NECK ON THE NILE         (colebrook ben)DIAZ RENE 111 12.00    
5  SPRING MAGIC Mar26 Feb12 Jan15     (walsh br)SANTANA JR 118 6.00    
6  MACADAMIA (FR) Apr15         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
7  SACRED KITTEN Apr22         (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 8.00 ★    
8  MADELYN'S MAGIC Apr15 Mar05 Feb11 Jan23   (jones lar)PETERSON FERRIN 118 12.00    
9  MOUDARI         (margolis steph)ROCCO S 118 12.00    
10  RAGTIME BELLE Mar12         (walsh bre)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
11  ELLE OF THE BALL Apr08 Mar01 Jan22     (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
12  WHAT'S TO DO Apr22         (mcgee paul)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
SCR  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE Jan22         (biancone pat)GEROUX FLORENT 118 20.00    
14  GET BY Mar13         (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 15.00 8% 11.00    
SCR  REVERB Apr27         (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 125 15.00    
SCR  MINDFUL         (devaux cher)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 12.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.