Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Thursday - May 05, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   05/05/2022 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($26K) 4UP ALL PT-12:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  ESTILO PELIGROSO Mar17 Mar02 Feb10     (sanner daniel)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 4.00 19% 4.20    
2  COLOMBIANO         (hill f)BRYAN KERRY 118 12.00    
3  HIGHER AUTHORITY Apr21 Feb16 Jan14 Jan02   (west ethan )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.50 13% 6.80    
4  JURISDICTION Mar17 Feb24 Jan15     (miller f)COURT K 118 10.00    
5  THE BOSS FACTOR Mar25 Mar05 Feb16 Jan14 Jan01 (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.50 36% 1.80    
6  TILL THEN Apr21 Mar25 Mar09 Feb16   (foster eric)DIAZ RENE 111 6.00 ★    
7  HIGH SPIRITS Mar25 Mar17 Feb16     (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 118 6.00    
8  YOUVESAIDITALL Mar19 Feb24 Jan09     (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 3.00 ★    
 
CD-2   05/05/2022 3300ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  EMPIRE OF MY OWN         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 119 2.00 38% 1.70    
SCR  CATHERINE BLAZE         (leonard i)BEJARANO R 119 10.00 ★    
3  AMERICAN APPLE         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00    
4  DEVIOUS DAME         (casse w)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 3.00 16% 5.10    
5  DEVIOUS DELIGHT         (mccutchen)HERNANDEZ J 119 10.00 5% 19.00    
6  DIVINE GRACE         (ewing micha)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00    
7  YOU CHOSE WISELY Apr21         (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 119 6.00 14% 6.00    
 
CD-3   05/05/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  RYE HUMOR Mar17 Jan08       (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 ★    
2  ABUELO NUNO Apr19 Mar16 Jan30 Jan03   (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 5.00 7% 12.70    
3  BOBBY BABY Apr15 Jan14 Jan02     (navarrete )CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
4  FRANKIE BARONE         (meyers sha)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 5% 18.90    
5  COVE BLUE Feb24 Jan27 Jan07     (cano mu)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 1.20 47% 1.20    
6  MUY CARO Mar21 Feb28 Jan08     (cowans wi)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
SCR  WILE E PEYOTE Feb19 Jan29 Jan07     (reed r)MCKEE J 118 15.00    
8  SILVER N LAI Mar11 Feb05 Jan13     (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 6.00 15% 5.60    
9  DAVID'S GEM Mar31 Feb20 Jan23 Jan01   (garcia genaro)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
 
CD-4   05/05/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($20K) Purse ($66K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:17
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MO'S MOJO Feb25 Jan02       (morse l)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
2  HOOPERDRIVESTHBOAT Mar10 Feb10 Jan09     (habeeb dona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
3  WINDY CITY RED Apr14 Mar17 Feb24 Feb05 Jan06 (diodoro ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 12.00    
4  DENVER CITY Mar27 Mar01 Feb05     (lovell michelle)DIAZ RENE 111 15.00 12% 7.60    
5  THE QUEENS JULES Mar27 Feb20 Jan29     (van thomas)BEJARANO R 118 12.00 ★    
6  BABY YODA Apr14 Feb12       (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 120 1.00 40% 1.50    
7  DIVINE LEADER Feb12 Jan23       (ennis john)GRAHAM J 118 3.50 ★    
8  SAMURAI PRINCE Mar18 Feb11 Jan07     (morey will)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.50 23% 3.40    
 
CD-5   05/05/2022 5940ft TURF RC1 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SAILOR'S RETURN Mar18 Feb20 Jan21 Jan03   (habeeb dona)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 12.00    
2  JAMES JONES Feb25         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 4.50    
3  ALYANAABI Apr07 Mar13 Feb26     (peitz dan )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
SCR  ADVANCED PLACEMENT Feb25         (lynch bria)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 4.50    
5  TWIRLING BLUES Mar26 Feb12 Jan02     (wilkes r)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
6  SPRINKLEHEAD Apr14 Feb25 Feb16 Jan08   (salas felipe)DIAZ RENE 118 30.00    
7  VINTAGE YEAR Apr10 Feb25       (arnold ge)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
8  FIELD MARSHAL Feb12 Jan02       (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 3.00 13% 6.60    
9  ENOUGH ALREADY Apr09 Feb12       (pletcher todd)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00 25% 3.00    
10  LUCKMAN Apr16 Mar03 Jan22     (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
11  URBAN RECOVERY Mar26         (devaux che)HERNANDEZ J 118 12.00    
12  STICKY ISSUE Apr28         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 125 12.00 11% 7.80    
SCR  MCGOLDEN Mar26 Mar03       (walsh brendan )SAEZ GABRIEL 118 5.00    
SCR  RULE THE EMPIRE Feb26 Jan13       (barkley j)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
SCR  PICCADILLY Apr10 Mar12       (mcgaughey )CORRALES GERARDO 118 15.00    
SCR  JR'S GIFT Apr02 Mar12 Feb23     (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 111 30.00 9% 9.60    
SCR  WARRIOR JOHNY Apr14 Mar04 Jan22     (bauer phil)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 3.00 12% 7.60    
 
CD-6   05/05/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($75K) Purse ($60K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:27
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BIG BLUE LINE Apr09 Feb19 Jan16     (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 4.00 ★    
2  HE'S A KEEPER Apr14         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 125 8.00    
3  GROUP EIGHTEEN Apr07 Feb20 Jan28     (williamson b)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 12.00 7% 13.90    
4  BRONZE HALO Jan29         (drury thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 10.00    
5  BEYBLADER Mar26 Feb19       (margolis stephe)LANERIE J 118 6.00    
6  GUT FEELING Feb26 Jan13       (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 34% 1.90    
7  DUAL THREAT Mar19         (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 3.00 7% 12.70    
8  DEFIED Feb20         (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 4.00 27% 2.70    
 
CD-7   05/05/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:02
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  URSULINA Apr22 Apr08 Mar19 Mar06 Feb12 (lukas wayne)SAEZ LUIS 123 15.00    
2  SOCIAL DILEMMA         (stall m)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 3.50 ★    
3  LOVE OF MY HEART Mar19 Jan29       (forster gra)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 5.00 6% 14.90    
4  DOWNTOWN ABBY Mar19         (calhoun william )PARKER L 125 2.00 31% 2.30    
5  ROOKERY Mar19 Feb24 Jan29     (catalano wayn)VELAZQUEZ R 123 12.00    
6  WINGS OF AN ANGEL Mar06 Feb12 Jan07     (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 15.00    
7  BELLE REBELLE Mar26         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 120 3.00 40% 1.50    
8  FLASHY CHARGE Jan22         (frazier matt)LANERIE J 123 20.00    
9  ANNA VOLANTE Mar19 Feb24 Jan21     (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 123 12.00 ★    
 
CD-8   05/05/2022 5280ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($160K) 4UP ALL PT- 4:37
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MONARCHS GLEN (GB) Apr10 Mar12 Feb19 Jan22   (maker mi)SANTANA JR 118 12.00    
SCR  BEATBOX Apr02 Feb19 Jan16     (morey william )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 5.00 17% 5.00    
3  HIDDEN STASH Apr13 Feb27 Jan15     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
SCR  KENTUCKY GHOST         (oliver vic)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 ★    
5  MR DUMAS Apr10 Mar10 Feb19     (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 4.00 10% 8.70    
SCR  SET PIECE (GB) Apr15         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 43% 1.30    
7  SPECTACULAR GEM Apr02 Feb19 Feb12 Jan16   (sherman j)BETANCOURT RONNEY 118 30.00    
SCR  CAPTIVATING MOON Mar26 Feb19       (block chri)LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00    
9  GRAY'S FABLE Apr02         (attfield roger)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00    
10  SPANISH KINGDOM Feb14         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
11  MAX K. O. Mar27 Mar02 Jan22     (joseph saffie)ORTIZ JR 118 10.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KENTUCKY PHAROAH         (sisterson)LEPAROUX R 118 30.00    
 
CD-9   05/05/2022 3300ft DIRT RC2 FAST nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 2 ALL PT- 5:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TOM'S REGRET Apr15         (periban jorge)BAZE C 117 4.50 25% 3.10    
2  LONE LEADER Apr13         (hancock a)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
3  KING ADROCK Apr08         (mendez luis)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 6.00 7% 13.70    
4  FERRARI KID Apr26         (lake a)PENNINGTON F 120 15.00    
5  MR. GORDY Apr13         (hancock jo)CORRALES GERARDO 120 10.00    
6  COOL SPIRIT         (briley lo)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
7  HILL OF TARA         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
8  RYVIT Apr13         (asmussen steve)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00 ★    
9  SIMPLY SUPER Apr20         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 33% 2.00    
10  BAYTOWN LOVELY Apr10         (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 117 20.00    
11  HURRICANE DEBBIE Apr14         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 117 4.00 15% 5.80    
12  THE BIG WAM Apr28         (mendez luis)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 10.00    
 
CD-10   05/05/2022 3630ft TURF RC2 FIRM nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  SOCIAL CHATTER         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 122 15.00    
2  BROOKE MARIE Apr09 Jan29       (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 126 4.00 7% 13.40    
3  AMBASSADOR LUNA Mar04         (colebrook ben)LANERIE J 122 12.00    
4  IN GOOD SPIRITS         (stall albert )VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00    
5  CHANGE OF CONTROL Apr16 Mar01 Jan29     (lovell mi)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 26% 2.80    
6  CATCH A BID Jan30         (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 10.00    
7  GOIN' GOOD Apr16 Mar01       (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 7% 13.60    
8  TOBYS HEART Apr09         (lynch a)ORTIZ L 122 6.00 14% 5.90    
9  BULLSEYE BEAUTY Apr24 Jan29       (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 122 8.00 18% 4.50    
 
CD-11   05/05/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:14
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAXINE'S CANDY Apr15         (vance davi)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
2  SHES GREEKANDSLEEK         (stall m)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
3  LOVE OF MY LIFE Mar09 Feb16       (correas iv)GRAHAM J 118 8.00    
4  MRS. NUSHI Apr22         (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 26% 2.80    
5  SOMEBODY LOVES ME Apr14 Mar13       (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 5% 19.00    
6  SWEET TRUFFLES Mar17         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 124 5.00 29% 2.50    
7  ABBY THE BULL DAWG Mar11         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00 5% 19.00    
8  MONOCACY Apr02         (morey e)DIAZ RENE 111 10.00    
9  QUICK MUNNY Apr15 Feb24 Jan28     (barkley )SANTANA JR 124 6.00 18% 4.60    
10  TACHLIS Apr02 Mar05       (arnold r)SAEZ LUIS 118 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.