Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Tillamook County Fair
Friday - August 12, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI


Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
TIL-1   08/12/2022 3300ft DIRT RC0 FAST ALW4000C ($0K) Purse ($4K) 3UP M/F PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHULA GIRL Jul23 Jul03 May27 Apr29 Apr09 (gilmour j)JENSEN P null   36% 1.80    
BRITE LILY Aug11 Jul31 Jul29 Jul04 Jun28 (dennis cli)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   34% 2.00    
SCR  DUTCH MAMA Jul15 Jun28 Jun21     (cantrell margie)GOODGAME R null   10% 9.50    
SCR  UNBRIDLED BIRDIE Jun27 Jun21       (goode crys)PRECIADO A null      
SCR  ARCTIC FIRE Aug10         (gilmour jim)SMITH E null      
 
TIL-3   08/12/2022 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST CLM2500NW1Y ($2.5K) Purse ($4K) 3UP ALL PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CRESCENT WILDCAT Aug10 Jun27 Jun20 Jun11   (crysta)GONZALEZ FLORES null      
MISTER G. Q. Aug10         (braden darlene)GOODGAME R null      
SHOCKAZULU Jul29 Jul15 Jun05 May15   (harris john)SMITH E null   45% 1.20    
LUCKY CHAMP Aug11 Jul22 Jul08 Jun12 May29 (ortega jo)JENSEN P null      
REBEL ROAR Aug11 Jul31       (dennis cli)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null      
COASTAL SON Aug10 Jul16 Jul15 Jul03 Jun20 (crystal du)PRECIADO A null   31% 2.20    
 
TIL-5   08/12/2022 3300ft DIRT RC2 FAST SOC60001Y+ ($3.2K) Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FORT YORK Jul14 Jul03 Jun20 Jan31 Jan12 (abraham ti)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null      
PULPITS POWER Aug10 Jul29 Jul03 Jun20 May21 (abraham tim)GUERRERO C null      
FOOLISH TO DECEIVE Jul03 Jun20       (crystal du)PRECIADO A null   14% 5.90    
CADILLAC CHROME         (cox sammi)JENSEN P null   14% 6.20    
TADEO Jul03 Jun11       (harshman loe)SMITH E null   35% 1.90    
FRED Jul31 Jul29 Jul17 Jun25 May27 (dennis g)GOODGAME R null      
 
TIL-7   08/12/2022 3300ft DIRT RC2 FAST STK7250 ($0K) Purse ($7.25K) 3UP M/F PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KISS RIDE GOODBYE Aug10 Jul30 Jul22 Jun03 May27 (gilmour j)JENSEN P null      
JADED TIGER Jul24 Jul16 Jul04 Jun25 Jun12 (smith )GONZALEZ FLORES null   32% 2.10    
LIL' MISS MISCHIEF Jun26 May28 May07 Apr18 Mar28 (ortega joe)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null      
SIMPLY PERFECT (GB) Jul24 Jul10 Jun18 May20 May08 (gilmour jim)GUERRERO C null      
JUST CLASSY Jul31 Jul23 Jun25 Jan17   (smith jackie)SMITH E null   42% 1.40    
 
TIL-8   08/12/2022 3300ft DIRT RC4 FAST CLM2000 ($2K) Purse ($5K) 3UP M/F PT-
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SWISS SCRIPT Jul04 Jun21       (boyle mary)GOODGAME R null   61% 0.60    
COACH'S VALENTINE Jul15 Jun27 Jun20     (stewar)GONZALEZ FLORES null      
JUPITER S. Jul14 Jun28 Jun21 Jun11   (stewart la)JIMENEZ SANTIAGO null   11% 7.90    
LIZETTA Aug10 Jul23 Jul17     (young donald)SMITH E null      
MY FUNNY GAL Aug10 Jul10 Jun17 Jun03 May07 (ortega joe)GUERRERO C null      
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.