Handicappers' Racing Form

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The Longshot Specialist!

Prairie Meadows
Monday - August 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★

Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI

PRM-4   WIN (5/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 
    EXA (5/2)-(5/6/2) 4 $1.00 $4.00 
    TRI (5/2)-(5/6/2)-(5/6/2) 4 $0.50 $2.00 
    DD (5/2)-(3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    PK3 (5/2)-(3/2/4)-(3/1/2) 18 $1.00 $18.00 
PRM-5   WIN (3/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/2/4)-(3/2/4)-(3/2/4) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/2/4)-(3/1/2) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/2/4)-(3/1/2)-(5/2/3) 27 $1.00 $27.00 
PRM-6   WIN (3/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (3/1/2)-(3/1/2)-(3/1/2) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (3/1/2)-(5/2/3) 9 $1.00 $9.00 
    PK3 (3/1/2)-(5/2/3)-(2/1/4/6) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PRM-7   WIN (5/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/2/3)-(5/2/3)-(5/2/3) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/2/3)-(2/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (5/2/3)-(2/1/4/6)-(5/1/7) 36 $1.00 $36.00 
PRM-8   WIN (2/1/4/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (2/1/4/6)-(2/1/4/6) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (2/1/4/6)-(2/1/4/6)-(2/1/4/6) 24 $0.50 $12.00 
    DD (2/1/4/6)-(5/1/7) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    PK3 (2/1/4/6)-(5/1/7)-(7/5/4/1) 48 $1.00 $48.00 
PRM-9   WIN (5/1/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 
    EXA (5/1/7)-(5/1/7) 6 $1.00 $6.00 
    TRI (5/1/7)-(5/1/7)-(5/1/7) 6 $0.50 $3.00 
    DD (5/1/7)-(7/5/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
PRM-10   WIN (7/5/4/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 
    EXA (7/5/4/1)-(7/5/4/1) 12 $1.00 $12.00 
    TRI (7/5/4/1)-(7/5/4/1)-(7/5/4/1) 24 $0.50 $12.00 

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★

 
PRM-4   08/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($19.263K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COLORFUL NATIVE Aug04 Jul16 Jun26 Jun05 Oct02 (jacquot gene)ZIMMERMAN R 122 8.00    
JUSTICE ONCE Jul29 Jul03 May26 Apr27 Apr06 (tracy tanner)ROMAN KEVIN 122 4.00 5% 19.00    
JUST JOHNNY Aug04 Jul16 Jun16 May27 May19 (chleborad ly)JORDAN R 124 6.00    
SCR  A BRUSH OF LUCK Jul29 Jul16 Jun16 May13 Sep26 (arceo sal)TRIANA JR 122 3.00    
ALLEN'S ROCKET Aug04 Jul16 Jun11 May21 Oct01 (chleborad lynn)BIRZER E 122 2.50 62% 0.60    
JOHN R Aug04 Jul02 Jun16 Jun04 Aug29 (hemba bra)DE CRUZ 122 2.00    
 
PRM-5   08/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($6.25K) Purse ($15.7K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HACKER Jul09 Jun16 May28 May12 Apr16 (martin timothy )ZIMMERMAN R 126 3.50    
NORTH SIDE Aug04 Jul14 Jun04 May12 Apr29 (young sco)TRIANA JR 124 3.00 15% 5.90    
SIR DEPUTY Jul22 Jun28 Jun06 May01 Mar28 (johnson a)TOHILL S 126 4.00 54% 0.80    
LIVINGONTULSATIME Jul14 Jun25 Jun10 Mar05 Jan29 (jordan todd )JORDAN R 126 8.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  HOLIDAY TICKET Aug04 Jul15 Jul03 Jun18 May22 (rollins scot)GONZALEZ ELVIN 126 6.00    
NEW STRIPE Aug04 Jul22 Jul01 Jun18 Jun11 (arnett g)BIRZER E 126 1.60    
 
PRM-6   08/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($22.015K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MACH SWEDE Jul29 Jun25 Jun05 May26 May13 (arnett g)ZIMMERMAN R 120 4.00 24% 3.30    
QUARTERNIGHT Aug12 Jul29 Jun25 Jun17 May28 (fett brandi)SALAZAR TERESA 115 3.50 22% 3.50    
PRIZED TAP Aug05 Jul15 Jun25 Jun10 May13 (wellington)WELLINGTON KYLIE 115 2.00 25% 3.00    
DIXIE THREE G Jul15 Oct01 Sep16     (houghton bryan)ROMAN KEVIN 125 6.00    
GLOME Aug06 Jul17 Jun25 Jun05 Oct02 (hemba bra)DE CRUZ 120 8.00    
SCR  LETS ROCK N STROLL Aug06 Jul17 Jun17 May28 May13 (dieter dalton)TOHILL S 120 3.00    
 
PRM-7   08/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($29.484K) 2 ALL PT- 7:34
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STROLLER BOY Aug05 Jul08 Jun23 Jun04   (guillory )DE CRUZ 119 4.00    
SPECIALSORTASTORM Jul29 Jun23       (ashford ra)GONZALEZ ELVIN 119 3.50 30% 2.30    
JUPITER MISSION Aug05 Jul08 Jun23     (arnett g)ROMAN KEVIN 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
D D'S LEGACY Jul22 Jul01 Jun12     (martin timoth)PUSAC ALBERTO 119 2.50    
STROLLIN NORMAN B Jul22         (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 119 1.60 46% 1.20    
CAN'T BE CAUGHT Aug05 Jul22 Jul08     (mcshane d)TOHILL S 119 12.00    
 
PRM-8   08/21/2023 3630ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($29.484K) 2 F PT- 8:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ESPRIT ROUGE Jul31 Jul08       (gleason t)TRIANA JR 119 2.50 27% 2.70    
SHEZAWILDSTORM Jul21 Jun19       (ashford ra)JORDAN R 119 2.00 29% 2.40    
KATHERINES KID Aug04         (von hemel)DE CRUZ 119 15.00    
NATUSIA Jul21         (von kelly)ROMAN KEVIN 119 5.00 23% 3.30    
TENNESSEE GRACE Jul31         (hargens bob)SALAZAR TERESA 114 12.00    
LUCYS STROLL Aug04 Jul21 Jun30     (mcshane d)TOHILL S 119 8.00 5% 19.00    
TOMMY'S CRUE Jul31         (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 119 3.00    
 
PRM-9   08/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($12.6K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CHICAGO CHROME Jul15 Jun25 Jun16 May22 Dec10 (rufino eusebio )CORBETT W 122 6.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  NILES CHANNEL Jul19 Mar10 Jan22 Dec17 Nov24 (tracy tanner)ROMAN KEVIN 122 2.50    
KOSELIO Aug07 Jul29 Jun18 May19 May06 (jordan todd )JORDAN R 122 5.00    
ROCK CITY ROCKET Jul15 May28 May12 Apr23 Mar02 (martin e)BIRZER E 122 3.50    
MONTEREY PENINSULA Jul29 Jul23 Jun23 Jun02 May12 (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 124 3.00 28% 2.50    
SCR  CAPTAIN DON Jul29 Jul03 Jun18 May28 May12 (martinez )DE CRUZ 122 8.00    
OPTIMISTIC VALOR Jul22 Jul10 Jun05 May22 Apr08 (donlin lar)WELLINGTON KYLIE 117 10.00 16% 5.40    
 
PRM-10   08/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($20K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:52
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
JAYSKER Aug06 Jun10 May21 Oct01 Sep02 (birzer bonnie)BIRZER E 119 10.00 8% 11.90    
GAMBLER ROCKET Aug06 Jul14 Sep18 Jul29 Jul10 (martin wi)DE CRUZ 124 3.50    
SCR  PALACE GUARD Jul22 Jun26 Oct01 Sep12 Aug22 (gleason tyrone)TOHILL S 117 15.00    
LIGHTNING STRUCK Jul31 Jul03 May29 Apr29 Mar26 (martinez kelli)MARTINEZ A 124 4.00 11% 8.40    
COST BASIS Jun18 May27 Apr14 Mar18 Feb03 (martin timot)JORDAN R 124 5.00 20% 3.90    
KINGSWOOD Jul07 Jun23 Jun10 May21 Apr01 (arnett g)ROMAN KEVIN 124 12.00    
GERARD Jul03 May29 Apr12 Apr01 Jan26 (arnett g)ZIMMERMAN R 120 3.00 37% 1.70    
PURE ROCKET Jul28 Jul14 Jun11 May06 Apr11 (mcfarlane da)GONZALEZ ELVIN 124 6.00    
MACHINEGUNPREACHER Oct22 Oct07 Aug27 Jul22 Jul02 (arnett g)CORBETT W 122 8.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.