Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Churchill Downs
Saturday - April 30, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
CD-1   04/30/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BRAWNDO Mar31 Mar18 Mar02 Feb12 Jan14 (garcia ge)PEDROZA MARCELINO 120 5.00 ★    
2  TERAWATT Apr08 Mar05 Jan28     (moquett ro)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 4.50 14% 6.20    
3  HANEY BOYS Apr20 Feb27 Jan30 Jan14   (van tho)GEROUX FLORENT 123 4.50 ★    
4  FIREMAN DAN Mar25 Mar02 Feb11 Jan02   (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 3.50 ★    
5  SPEED BOAT Apr16 Mar18 Feb04     (vanden berg )LANDEROS CHRIS 123 1.40 50% 1.00    
6  FORMAL ORDER Apr08 Feb06 Jan13     (desormeaux keit)DIAZ RENE 111 10.00    
 
CD-2   04/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($8K) Purse ($26K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:28
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DEANO Mar23 Feb28 Feb06 Jan20 Jan08 (diodoro rob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 120 5.00 8% 11.90    
SCR  MY MAN FLINTSTONE         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.00 11% 7.90    
3  DREWZANO Mar27 Mar05 Jan21     (wiggins lo)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00    
4  AREYOUTALKINGTOME Mar31 Mar18 Mar09 Feb17 Feb01 (quartarolo)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00    
5  EL VENUE Mar31 Feb19       (morse l)DIAZ RENE 111 12.00    
6  SPEND BENJAMINS Mar31 Feb26 Feb18 Jan07   (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 10.00 ★    
7  SOUL STREIT Feb17 Jan02       (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 2.50 46% 1.20    
SCR  HONEY WON'T Mar27 Feb24 Jan06     (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00 13% 6.80    
 
CD-3   04/30/2022 4290ft DIRT RC0 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 6:56
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  FRILLS Apr13 Mar26       (leitch daniel)JIMENEZ ALBIN 123 1.60 50% 1.00    
2  BRUNELLA Mar24 Mar05       (cook b)ROCCO S 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
3  DELTA GAMMA CATS Apr13 Mar19 Mar04 Jan29 Jan16 (west w)BEJARANO R 118 1.80 20% 4.00    
4  A LOT OF SPUNK Apr13 Mar06 Feb24 Feb03   (heitzman e)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 5.00 ★    
5  LA TOURISTA Apr21 Apr13 Mar18 Feb24 Jan14 (vasq)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 20.00    
6  FOREIGN EXCHANGE Apr08 Feb25       (ares paul)PETERSON FERRIN 118 3.50 ★    
 
CD-4   04/30/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:26
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAKWENA Mar17 Feb19       (miller darri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 4.00 23% 3.40    
1A  GINGRICH Mar12 Jan01       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 4.00    
2  STITCHED Mar25 Feb28 Feb06 Jan21   (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 118 5.00    
3  MOUNT KENYA Jan29         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 125 5.00 ★    
4  EVAN SING Mar17         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
5  BRYCE CANYON Mar27         (toner j)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 3.50 25% 3.00    
6  GINSBURNED Apr08 Jan30 Jan05     (arnold ge)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 125 6.00    
SCR  GRANDEUR         (brisset rodo)GEROUX FLORENT 125 8.00    
SCR  KOOLHAUS Mar24 Feb28 Jan23     (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 2.50 29% 2.50    
SCR  GREAT ESCAPE (ARG) Apr02 Feb26       (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00 ★    
 
CD-5   04/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:57
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OLD PHO Mar04 Feb05       (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 3.50 29% 2.40    
2  J L'S ROCKETTE         (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 4.00    
3  MUCHO MACHO MOMMA Mar24 Jan15       (stewart dal)GUTIERREZ REYLU 124 3.50 ★    
4  BOURBINA         (cook b)BEJARANO R 124 5.00 ★    
5  ALTERED SHOT Mar19         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 124 1.80 42% 1.40    
SCR  PREMIER WISH Feb27 Jan15       (garcia ge)PEDROZA MARCELINO 124 10.00 6% 14.50    
 
CD-6   04/30/2022 6600ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 8:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BAYOU WIND Apr23 Feb11       (caramori ed)PETERSON FERRIN 126 12.00 5% 19.00    
2  RUNAWAY WIFE Apr13         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 ★    
3  TAKE A STAND Apr10 Feb26 Jan14     (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 118 3.50    
SCR  FIVE PRIZES Mar06 Feb05       (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 2.50 39% 1.60    
5  INVITING (IRE) Apr02 Mar05       (mcgaughey )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
6  MISS YEARWOOD Apr10 Jan30       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 3.00 18% 4.40    
7  SUMMER MATE Feb21 Jan27       (pessin neil )GEROUX FLORENT 126 10.00 5% 19.00    
 
CD-7   04/30/2022 5610ft DIRT RC0 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP ALL PT- 9:05
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FOTHERINGAY Mar31 Mar12 Jan22     (colebrook)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
2  MOON DOG Mar20 Feb26       (glyshaw tim)BEJARANO R 118 15.00    
3  MY FAVORITE UNCLE Mar11 Feb18 Jan14     (asmussen m)DIAZ RENE 119 4.50 50% 1.00    
4  STRONG LIGHT Mar19 Feb05       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 5.00 7% 12.60    
5  BANDIMERE Apr02 Jan30       (brisset rodolp)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00 10% 9.50    
6  WORKINFROMHOME Apr01         (lobo h)JIMENEZ ALBIN 126 20.00    
7  BIG PAPER Apr01 Feb20 Jan29     (correas iv)GRAHAM J 126 6.00 9% 10.00    
SCR  HE'S A KEEPER Apr14         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 126 10.00    
9  LEVEE PROUD Mar17 Feb11 Jan10     (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
10  TRICOLOUR Mar23 Feb21 Feb03 Jan02   (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00    
11  HOLD THE LINE Mar17         (kobiskie dane)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
12  DOWN TO BIZZNESS Apr09 Jan08       (boland sha)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
 
CD-8   04/30/2022 3630ft TURF RC3 FIRM Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 9:39
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  SOUTHERN MAMA         (ennis john)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
2  MAMBA WAMBA (IRE) Apr08 Feb19       (lynch bri)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00    
3  INAJIFFY Mar13 Feb13       (sharp joe)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 12.00    
SCR  CLARA PEETERS (GB) Mar26 Mar12 Feb13     (hartman chris)LANERIE J 122 5.00    
5  LEMOS CUNHA Apr08         (caramori eduardo)COURT K 122 20.00    
6  STERLING MISS Mar12 Feb14       (foley greg)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 5.00 20% 4.00    
7  HABOBANERO Apr16 Mar04 Feb10 Jan22 Jan01 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 122 30.00    
8  MUSED (GB) Jan02         (kenneally edd)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 15.00    
9  SPICY MARG Apr08         (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00    
10  BAY STORM Apr08         (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 122 1.80 32% 2.10    
11  COMPETENT Apr07 Mar19 Jan15     (tomczak mark)SIMPSON JASON 122 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  RICHIES GREAT GIRL Feb18 Jan12       (rivelli la)CORRALES GERARDO 122 12.00 10% 8.70    
13  BLISSFUL CHANGE Apr08 Feb24       (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 122 20.00    
SCR  GERRI B         (danner kel)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.00 11% 8.30    
 
CD-9   04/30/2022 3960ft DIRT RC2 MUDDY nongraded Stake Purse ($160K) 4UP M/F PT-10:11
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  EUPHORIC Mar12 Feb14 Jan29     (flint bern)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 9% 10.30    
2  CHEETARA (CHI) Mar12         (correas iv)GRAHAM J 118 4.00 ★    
3  BAYERNESS         (devaux cherie)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 30% 2.40    
4  CLUB CAR Apr09 Mar19       (colebrook ben)LANERIE J 118 2.50 ★    
SCR  CARRIBEAN CAPER         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 118 1.60 26% 2.80    
 
CD-10   04/30/2022 4620ft DIRT RC0 MUDDY Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($30K) 3UP ALL PT-10:42
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  VASILEVSKIY (IRE) Feb10 Jan21       (casse norm)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 51% 1.00    
2  ASHWINS ORB Jan09         (garcia ge)PEDROZA MARCELINO 118 12.00    
3  MR GHOST Apr20         (navarrete )CORRALES GERARDO 125 15.00    
4  KNIGHTLY MISCHIEF         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00    
SCR  ISTHMIAN Apr20 Mar19 Feb19 Jan29 Jan08 (gutierrez faustio)SAEZ LUIS 118 4.00 ★    
6  OUT WORK'N Mar06 Jan28 Jan12     (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 125 4.50    
7  MY HOT TODDY Feb11         (newton troy)PARKER L 125 10.00    
8  SUPER BROTHER         (scherer marian)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 15.00 ★    
9  MIGHTY CRAIC Feb25         (deegan jo)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00    
10  RIVER STONES Mar25 Mar09       (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 15.00 10% 8.60    
11  ZIPPER ZAPPER Apr15 Mar18       (boland sharon)BUSH V 118 20.00    
12  KEEP ON         (williamson)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 20.00    
SCR  GALLANT DUDE Mar17 Feb10 Jan22     (dunn d)COURT K 118 12.00    
SCR  ME WE Mar24         (gowan willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 15.00    
SCR  LAKE TAHOE Apr10 Feb21 Jan08     (moquett e)DIAZ RENE 111 5.00 14% 6.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.