Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Monkton
Saturday - April 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
MON-1   04/15/2023 15840ft TURF RC11 FIRM My Lady's Manor Timber Purse ($50K) 5UP ALL PT- 1:30
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GOODOLDTIMES (IRE)         (murphy alicia)SMITH COLIN 165      
  (by GOLD WELL out of BALLINLOVANEEILE by ALPHABATIM)
2  MYSTIC STRIKE Mar26 Nov06 Oct08     (mckenna todd)TETT FREDERICK 165   26% 2.90    
  (by SMART STRIKE out of MYSTIC RHYTHMS by CITIDANCER (IRE))
3  VINTAGE VINNIE (IRE)         (davies g)DAVIES TEDDY 165      
  (by VINNIE ROE out of BOBBY'S JET by BOB'S RETURN)
4  TOMGARROW (IRE)         (young lesli)PROCTER FREDDIE 165   39% 1.60    
  (by AIZAVOSKI (IRE) out of ROOMIER (IRE) by BIENAMADO)
 
MON-2   04/15/2023 15840ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($20K) 5UP ALL PT- 2:15
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS Mar26         (beecher mark)OWINGS BRETT 160      
  (by BIG BROWN out of STARS AND SPEIGHTS by SPEIGHTSTOWN)
2  FASHION LINE Mar26 Oct08 Jul12     (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 155      
  (by MORNING LINE out of WELL FASHIONED by WELL DECORATED)
3  TO BE OR NOT TO BE         (davies g)DAVIES TEDDY 160   17% 4.80    
  (by LIMEHOUSE out of ISABEL HARP by MOJAVE MOON)
4  CAUSE FOR PARDON Mar26 Aug22       (young lesli)PROCTER FREDDIE 165   52% 0.90    
  (by CREATIVE CAUSE out of PARDON MY EXCESS by IN EXCESS (IRE))
 
MON-3   04/15/2023 15840ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($20K) 5UP ALL PT- 3:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MR. FINE THREADS Nov06         (davies g)DAVIES TEDDY 160   57% 0.80    
  (by UNKNOWN out of SEVEN COUNTIES by WAYNE COUNTY (IRE))
2  FAMILY TREE (GB)         (morris r)SMITH COLIN 158   8% 12.20    
  (by GALILEO out of SANT ELENA by EFISIO)
3  ADJUTANT (GB) Mar26         (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 155      
  (by CHAMPS ELYSEES (GB) out of JUBILEE by HONOR GRADES)
4  QUALITY CHOICE Oct08 Oct02 Aug15 Aug01 Jul11 (beecher mark)OWINGS BRETT 160      
  (by QUALITY ROAD out of CODE BOOK by GIANT'S CAUSEWAY)
5  STOLEN SHOES (GB) Nov05 Oct15 Oct02 Jul11   (young lesli)PROCTER FREDDIE 165   8% 12.20    
  (by UNKNOWN out of FREQUENTLY by DISCREETLY MINE)
 
MON-4   04/15/2023 15840ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($15K) 5UP ALL PT- 3:45
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  IT'S NOTHING         (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 165      
2  POCKET TALK (IRE) Nov06         (davies joe )DIMPFEL THERESA 160      
3  AWESOME ADRIAN Mar27         (neilson kathy)TIERNEY CONOR 165   6% 16.00    
4  MERCOEUR (FR) Nov06 Mar27       (young f)DAVIES TEDDY 170   41% 1.50    
5  ROYAL RUSE Nov06 Oct08 Mar27     (neilson sa)SCULLY ELIZABETH 170   29% 2.40    
6  MASTER SEVILLE Oct22 Mar27       (beecher mark)OWINGS BRETT 170      
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.