Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Thursday - April 21, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  DUEL FUEL Apr01 Feb26 Feb17 Jan23 Jan14 (foster eric)GEROUX FLORENT 120 4.00    
1A  TILL THEN Mar25 Mar09 Feb16     (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 4.00 10% 9.50    
2  ENGLISH CHALLENGE Mar26 Mar17 Feb17     (estvanko )GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 118 5.00 ★    
3  HIGHER AUTHORITY Feb16 Jan14 Jan02     (west ethan )GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00 45% 1.20    
4  EL FRANCO Mar04 Feb12       (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00    
5  MISSISSIPPI Mar25 Feb19       (moquett ronal)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50    
SCR  ESTILO PELIGROSO Mar17 Mar02 Feb10     (sanner daniel)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 4.00 5% 19.00    
7  IRISH DECLARATION Mar26 Feb17 Jan16     (evans michael )MACHADO LUAN 118 6.00 15% 5.50    
 
KEE-2   04/21/2022 2970ft DIRT RC1 MUDDY Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($80K) 2 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  GRAND OAK (IRE)         (arnold geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00    
2  CATCHA LATER MO         (hancock dan)MIRANDA ROGELIO 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
3  LADY EVELYN CAN         (hanc)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 12.00    
SCR  HIPPIE TRAIL         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 119 2.50 34% 1.90    
5  THATSHOWSHEROLLS         (dyer john)VILLASANA CARLOS 119 12.00    
6  YOU CHOSE WISELY         (mcentee paul)GILLIGAN JACK 119 10.00    
SCR  DOMINICANA Apr08         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 119 3.50 16% 5.10    
8  SHE'S JERSEY TUFF         (leonard i)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 5% 19.00    
9  LOTTA MOSCATO         (ennis john)GRAHAM J 119 10.00    
10  SOMEBODYLOVESYOU         (reed r)MCKEE J 119 6.00    
11  CRACKALACKING         (hamilton sa)PETERSON FERRIN 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-3   04/21/2022 4620ft DIRT RC4 MUDDY Claiming ($25K) Purse ($48K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  LAFITTE'S FLEET Mar09 Feb26 Feb05 Jan07   (amoss thom)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00    
2  LOGICAL MYTH Mar12 Jan30       (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 ★    
3  STAGE LEFT Jan22         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 2.50 45% 1.20    
4  CAVE HILL Feb26 Jan29 Jan08     (cano munoz)DIAZ RENE 111 10.00    
5  CARAMELITO Mar04 Feb11 Jan23 Jan08   (meah anna)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 10.00 9% 10.10    
SCR  NOTTOWAY         (gaudet lacey)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 23% 3.40    
7  HE HATE ME Mar09 Feb05       (tomlinson mich)ROCCO S 118 12.00 ★    
SCR  MCFEELY Mar19 Feb26 Feb05 Jan06   (cano muno)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 10.00    
 
KEE-4   04/21/2022 3630ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  READY TO ANSWER         (littlefield )GEROUX FLORENT 118 6.00 9% 10.70    
2  PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE Mar16 Feb17 Jan23     (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 15.00    
3  CHIEF HOWCOME         (sanner daniel)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 15.00 5% 19.00    
4  APACHE TEARS Mar20 Jan28 Jan06     (mckeever andrew)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
5  ROCKSTAR RO Feb27         (lynch brian)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 4.50 9% 9.70    
6  FOLIAGE (NZ) Feb25         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 123 6.00    
7  LYRICAL POET         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 118 2.00 12% 7.20    
8  LOMU Mar18         (wiggins lon)LANERIE J 118 15.00    
9  SUPER DESIGN Mar23 Jan21 Jan06     (ward a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 3.00 45% 1.20    
SCR  DARK TIMBER         (d'angelo fra)SAEZ LUIS 118 3.50    
 
KEE-5   04/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 GOOD Claiming ($20K) Purse ($38K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  WAYWARDNESS Jan09         (beckman whi)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 10.00 9% 9.90    
2  BITTER VIXEN Feb11 Jan15       (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 4.00 31% 2.30    
3  PLIANTLEA Mar24 Feb17 Jan09     (mccarthy michael )DIAZ RENE 118 4.50 10% 9.00    
4  RHUBARB MARTINI Mar03 Jan08       (kenneally edd)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00    
5  GORILLA GIRL Mar31 Mar11 Feb23     (walsh d)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 9% 10.70    
6  LA NEBLINA Feb23 Feb12 Jan08     (humphries tho)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00    
7  SIMPLY BEGUILED Mar24 Jan28       (ortiz john )GUTIERREZ REYLU 125 4.00    
8  LA TOURISTA Apr13 Mar18 Feb24 Jan14 Jan01 (vasq)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 125 15.00    
9  WORLD PARTY Mar02 Jan21       (brinkman brett)POMPELL L 125 3.50 18% 4.60    
10  BIG BUGG'S GIRL         (colebrook ben)LANERIE J 118 8.00    
 
KEE-6   04/21/2022 5280ft TURF RC0 GOOD Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($55K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  COUNTERSTRIKE Mar17 Feb16 Jan29 Jan08   (walsh br)SANTANA JR 125 12.00 19% 4.20    
2  EYES ON TARGET         (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 125 2.50 ★    
3  HAWK OF WAR Mar26 Feb10       (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.00 23% 3.40    
4  FIELDSTONE         (sharp joe)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 5.00    
SCR  MALIBU TIME Apr03 Mar06 Feb19 Jan15   (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00    
6  GUN RUSH Apr02 Jan22       (corrigan j)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
7  EPIMYTHIUM Mar19 Jan15 Jan02     (meah anna)MORALES EDGAR 125 20.00    
8  OPTIMUS KAT Mar06         (lukas wa)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 6.00    
9  EL AHIJADO Apr02 Mar09 Feb19 Jan15   (guerrero sal)DIAZ RENE 118 30.00    
10  OUR COUNTRY Feb17 Jan20       (weaver geo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 6.00    
11  TO KALON Feb16         (cundiff waylon)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 30.00 5% 19.00    
12  KING TUFF Mar03 Feb10       (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
13  OF THE MOMENT Apr08 Feb17 Jan22     (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 6.00    
SCR  INVISIBLE WAR Mar17 Feb04 Jan08     (casse mark)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 3.00 33% 2.10    
SCR  CARMICHAEL Feb11 Jan12       (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 125 5.00    
 
KEE-7   04/21/2022 5610ft DIRT RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TIFFANY'S MO Mar05         (romans dale)ROSARIO JOEL 118 6.00    
2  SILVERLEAF Mar05 Feb09       (mcpeek kenneth )LANERIE J 118 5.00    
3  FINE COTTON Feb18 Jan21       (pessin l)DIAZ RENE 119 20.00    
4  JOEZINE Mar24 Mar04 Feb11     (macias ado)VILLASANA CARLOS 118 30.00 5% 19.00    
5  MINE FOR PASSION Mar04 Jan27       (lynch a)GRAHAM J 126 6.00    
6  UNBRIDLED D'ORO Mar19 Feb18       (stewart da)HERNANDEZ J 126 10.00 9% 10.30    
7  TIZ AMERICAN Feb21         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 126 8.00 13% 6.50    
8  FRIENDSHIP ROAD Mar23 Feb27       (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 118 4.50 ★    
9  FALCONET Mar05         (pletcher t)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 48% 1.10    
 
KEE-8   04/21/2022 7920ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($120K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  PALLAS ATHENE Mar12 Feb18 Jan29     (reed r)MCKEE J 118 12.00    
1A  YA BEAUTY (GB) Mar19 Jan09       (reed r)MCKEE J 118 12.00    
2  TWEETY SHOW Mar19         (isbell jr)BEJARANO R 118 15.00 11% 8.50    
3  DISAPPEARING ACT Jan17         (baltas richard)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.00 34% 1.90    
4  FLANIGAN'S COVE         (mcgaughey clau)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00 ★    
5  GO BIG GREEN Feb13 Jan23       (amoss m)GRAHAM J 118 20.00    
6  GO BIG BLUE NATION         (motion g)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 26% 2.90    
7  FATE OF OPHELIA Feb10         (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 8.00    
8  GLADYS Mar12 Feb12 Jan29     (danner ke)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 ★    
 
KEE-9   04/21/2022 3960ft DIRT RC0 GOOD Maiden Claimer ($20K) Purse ($36K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  ANOTHERMANICMONDAY Mar19         (radosevich s)GRAHAM J 125 12.00    
2  WATERMARK Mar31 Mar10 Feb10 Jan15   (colebrook )CORRALES GERARDO 125 3.50 53% 0.90    
3  BACKYARD HEN Mar19 Feb26 Feb14     (shif)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 118 15.00    
4  QUEEN CORDELIA Mar17 Feb21 Jan28     (stidham micha)CANNON DECLAN 125 4.50    
5  I'M STYLIN Mar31 Mar19 Mar05 Feb24   (vesty clarke)JIMENEZ ALBIN 125 15.00    
6  PISTOL Mar16 Feb19 Jan09     (mccarthy michael )DIAZ RENE 111 5.00 11% 8.30    
7  SUPER SURGE Mar12 Feb16       (ewing a)LANERIE J 118 10.00    
8  KISS THEORY Mar19         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 15.00 ★    
9  HOT ANNA Feb23         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 4.00 14% 6.30    
10  DOGWOODS BECCA         (taylor brent)MOJICA JR 118 20.00    
11  OUT OF THE SILENCE Feb26         (meah anna)MORALES EDGAR 118 30.00    
12  SHADY         (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 ★    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.