Handicappers' Racing Form
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The Longshot Specialist!
Keeneland
Friday - April 15, 2022
Simulator Virtual Bets
The betting guide below is intended for casual racing fans
who do not yet have the confidence to override our picks.
★   FOR CASUAL PLAYERS   ★
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.
The handicapping guide below is intended for experts
who have the required skill set to override our picks.
★   FOR HANDICAPPERS   ★
 
KEE-1   04/15/2022 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($32K) 4UP ALL PT- 1:00
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  STAY HOME Mar20 Mar03       (hiles a)LANERIE J 118 3.50 13% 6.80    
2  HIGH HEATER         (ennis john)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 3.00    
3  JAMMERS JUSTICE         (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 118 10.00    
4  FROLIC MORE Feb28 Jan27 Jan07     (catalano wayn)JIMENEZ ALBIN 118 4.00 20% 4.00    
5  IMPROBABLE STORY Mar15 Feb26       (rider m)MOJICA JR 118 20.00    
6  BOBBY BABY Jan14 Jan02       (navarrete ann)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 9% 9.50    
7  FREDERICKTOWN Mar31 Feb25 Feb17     (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 118 30.00    
SCR  AIRWAR Mar21 Mar02 Feb21 Jan09   (smith larry)ACHARD ALEX 120 3.50 14% 6.30    
9  FIRST DEPUTY Mar10 Feb18 Jan14     (riley barbara)OUZTS W 118 6.00 18% 4.70    
 
KEE-2   04/15/2022 5610ft TURF RC1 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 1:32
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MEANT TO BE         (kenneally eddi)ROSARIO JOEL 120 10.00    
2  BELLA MORNING Apr02         (mattingly)GONZALEZ SANTIAGO 120 50.00    
3  PERSONAL BEST Mar13         (mcgaughey clau)ORTIZ L 120 8.00    
4  PARIS PARAMOUR Feb12         (murphy con)HERNANDEZ J 120 10.00 5% 19.00    
5  I'M GLAD (IRE)         (thomas jonath)VELAZQUEZ R 120 6.00    
SCR  BEDTIME FOR BUFFY         (garner peter)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 30.00    
7  MADELYN'S MAGIC Mar05 Feb11 Jan23     (jones larry)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 8.00    
SCR  LOST BIKINI Mar19         (reed r)MCKEE J 120 20.00    
9  MACADAMIA (FR)         (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 120 8.00 6% 15.80    
10  QUALITY STAR Mar19         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 10.00    
11  WILLAKIA         (motion graham)SAEZ LUIS 120 3.00 31% 2.20    
12  WESTERN LANE         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 120 3.50 16% 5.20    
13  SHE'S GONE         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 5.00    
SCR  PHAROAH'S SONG Jan19         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 2.50 21% 3.70    
SCR  WALKATHON Feb13 Jan09       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 120 3.50    
SCR  SURELY (FR) Mar01         (stall alb)HERNANDEZ J 120 5.00    
 
KEE-3   04/15/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($44K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:04
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  TONAL IMPACT Mar11 Feb13 Jan21 Jan05   (shirer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 4.00    
SCR  MAXIMUM IMPACT Mar25 Feb27 Feb19 Feb10 Jan21 (cash l)MCKEE J 118 10.00    
3  SONIC CITY Feb16         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 3.50 58% 0.70    
4  DREAMING OF GERRY Mar04 Feb04       (maker michael)ORTIZ JR 125 3.00 16% 5.40    
5  CARILLO Feb19 Feb03 Jan08     (amoss m)DIAZ RENE 118 8.00 ★    
6  FULL CHARGE Feb23 Jan13       (sisterson )GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 3.50 ★    
7  BERN N ASH Jan15         (dunn d)GRAHAM J 125 12.00 ★    
8  THE PENINSULA Apr09 Feb11       (meah anna)CANUTO THIAGO 111 12.00    
 
KEE-4   04/15/2022 5610ft DIRT RC4 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($48K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MOBSTER GUN Feb16         (sims a)LANERIE J 125 15.00 ★    
2  BLUE JAYS Feb25 Jan27       (desormeaux k)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 3.00 35% 1.90    
3  COUSIN LARRY         (lovell michell)SAEZ GABRIEL 125 6.00    
4  TWENTY TWICE Mar18         (sisterson ja)BESCHIZZA ADAM 125 15.00    
5  GUILLAUME Feb25         (stidham mi)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 4.50    
6  FAIR HAIRED BOY Jan22         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 125 12.00 5% 19.00    
7  PERFECT CUT Mar17 Feb13 Jan08     (mcgee paul)ROSARIO JOEL 125 5.00 14% 6.00    
8  FAN CLUB Mar18 Jan29 Jan02     (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 125 2.00 23% 3.40    
 
KEE-5   04/15/2022 5940ft TURF RC0 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:08
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OCEAN ROAD (IRE)         (walsh bren)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.50 20% 3.90    
2  FLOWN         (walsh brendan)ORTIZ JR 118 3.00    
SCR  SCARABEA Apr02 Jan29       (sisterson jack)ORTIZ L 118 3.50 44% 1.30    
4  LUCY'S CAKES FLY         (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 118 15.00    
5  QUEEN BOURBON Feb26         (wilkes r)LANERIE J 118 6.00 ★    
6  TEXAS SHUFFLE         (mcgaughey j )GEROUX FLORENT 118 10.00 5% 18.60    
7  FINAL BELLE Jan29         (mott willia)RISPOLI UMBERTO 118 6.00    
8  TALKING BOOK Feb26         (mcgaughey clau)ROSARIO JOEL 118 12.00    
9  LAYNLOMAKNDOUGH         (mcpeek ken)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
 
KEE-6   04/15/2022 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($130K) 4UP ALL PT- 3:40
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  MAJOR FED Feb19         (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.00    
2  WAR STOPPER Mar13 Feb05       (pletcher todd )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
3  ENFORCEABLE Mar10         (casse mark)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 27% 2.80    
4  BEAVER HAT Mar13 Jan28       (williamson b)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00 5% 19.00    
5  FARMINGTON ROAD Mar11 Jan29       (arnold geo)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00    
6  CONCERT TOUR Feb21 Jan15       (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 2.00 37% 1.70    
7  MISCHIEF AFOOT Mar12 Jan29       (toner j)ORTIZ L 118 20.00 8% 12.10    
8  MYSTIC NIGHT Feb04         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 2.50 ★    
 
KEE-7   04/15/2022 3630ft TURF RC2 GOOD nongraded Stake Purse ($200K) 3 F PT- 4:12
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  THUNDER LOVE (GB)         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00    
2  HER WORLD (IRE)         (ward a)ORTIZ JR 120 2.00 18% 4.50    
SCR  KAUFYMAKER         (ward a)ORTIZ L 118 6.00 13% 6.70    
4  RUTHIN (GB)         (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
5  SIN CITY GAL Jan23         (diodoro rob)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 30.00    
6  DERRYNANE         (clement christ)ROSARIO JOEL 120 2.50 34% 2.00    
7  LOST MY SOCK Feb23         (ryan dere)HERNANDEZ J 118 30.00    
8  UNBRIDLED MARY Feb25         (sadler w)BRAVO J 118 6.00 12% 7.40    
SCR  FAST COREY Mar10         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00    
10  GUN BOAT         (mcgaughey claude )SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
 
KEE-8   04/15/2022 4620ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($120K) 4UP M/F PT- 4:44
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCR  FIRE ON TIME Jan13         (romans dale)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00    
2  WINWARD FLO Mar19 Mar09 Feb10 Jan23   (wallace kevin)CANUTO THIAGO 113 30.00    
SCR  RAZOR GLASS         (walsh brendan )PRAT FLAVIEN 118 8.00    
SCR  BRATTLE HOUSE         (lobo h)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00    
5  FRONT STREET Mar19 Jan14       (asmussen s)HERNANDEZ J 120 20.00 15% 5.60    
6  FRAUDULENT CHARGE Feb10         (gaudet lacey)VELAZQUEZ R 118 8.00 5% 19.00    
7  TIZ SPLENDID NEWS Mar06         (ward wesle)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 3.50 24% 3.20    
8  FARSIGHTED         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 118 10.00    
9  ZAINALARAB         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00    
10  BEES AND HONEY         (mcgaughey j )GEROUX FLORENT 118 3.00 25% 2.90    
11  LIBERTY M D Mar03         (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 118 12.00    
12  HONORIFIQUE Mar03 Jan15       (kenneally eddi)ROSARIO JOEL 118 12.00    
13  REGAL RETORT Feb19 Jan29       (asmussen steve)ORTIZ L 118 5.00    
SCR  RECODED Mar19 Jan22 Jan09     (foster eri)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00    
SCR  JUNGLE JUICE (IRE)         (meah anna)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 10% 9.10    
 
KEE-9   04/15/2022 5280ft TURF RC5 GOOD Grade I Stake/Handicap Purse ($600K) 4UP ALL PT- 5:16
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  IN LOVE (BRZ)         (lobo h)ACHARD ALEX 123 10.00    
  (by AGNES GOLD (JPN) out of LAST BET by KNOW HEIGHTS (IRE))
2  SHIRL'S SPEIGHT Feb05 Jan15       (attfield roger)SAEZ LUIS 123 50.00    
  (by SPEIGHTSTOWN out of PERFECT SHIRL by PERFECT SOUL (IRE))
3  ATONE Jan29         (maker mich)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 12.00    
  (by INTO MISCHIEF out of CAPTIVATING LASS by A.P. INDY)
4  MASEN (GB)         (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 123 5.00    
  (by KINGMAN out of CONTINENTAL DRIFT by FLYING CONTINENTAL)
SCR  IVAR (BRZ)         (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 123 6.00 22% 3.50    
  (by AGNES GOLD (JPN) out of MAY BE NOW by SMART STRIKE)
6  SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT         (mccarthy mi)RISPOLI UMBERTO 123 2.00 24% 3.20    
  (by MIDNIGHT LUTE out of SMOOTH AS USUAL by FLOWER ALLEY)
7  COUNT AGAIN Mar05 Feb05       (d'amato philip)ROSARIO JOEL 123 5.00 20% 3.90    
  (by AWESOME AGAIN out of COUNT TO THREE by RED RANSOM)
SCR  SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN         (maker michael )ORTIZ L 123 12.00 10% 8.90    
  (by BIG BROWN out of MARILYN MONROAN by TAPIT)
9  SET PIECE (GB)         (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 123 8.00 ★    
  (by UNKNOWN out of PORTODORA by KINGMAMBO)
10  MIRA MISSION Mar05 Jan15       (wilkes ia)LEPAROUX R 123 20.00    
  (by NOBLE MISSION (GB) out of KAZAMIRA by DYNAFORMER)
SCR  PUBLIC SECTOR (GB)         (brown c)ORTIZ JR 123 8.00    
  (by KINGMAN out of PARLE MOI by MONTJEU (IRE))
 
KEE-10   04/15/2022 3960ft DIRT RC1 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 5:48
Try it:   Click any label below to view the performance of a Thoroughbred on the indicated date.
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  OMA THE GREAT         (mcgaughey cla)ORTIZ JR 120 8.00    
2  SUPER CHRISTIE Mar09         (stewart dalla)VELAZQUEZ R 120 4.50 31% 2.20    
3  SIS BOOM BOB Mar10 Feb16       (gonzalez )LEPAROUX R 120 15.00 6% 15.10    
4  NAPA CANDY Feb12         (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 120 4.50 21% 3.70    
5  DONTGETABOVURAISIN         (kenneally ed)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 5.00    
6  REGAL REALM         (thomas jonathan)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00    
7  BE TOUGH Mar10         (toye kara)HERNANDEZ J 120 50.00    
8  AN APPLE A DAY         (leitch dan)CORRALES GERARDO 120 15.00    
9  SURCHARGE         (lyster s)GRAHAM J 120 20.00    
10  JALEBI BABY Mar23         (flint bern)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 20.00    
11  JETINWITHCLASS         (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 120 10.00    
12  VERONICA GREENE         (brown c)ORTIZ L 120 4.00 17% 4.70    
SCR  SWEET BABY RAY         (horn jr)CANUTO THIAGO 113 20.00 ★    
SCR  ESTOLE         (mott i)ROSARIO JOEL 120 5.00    
SCR  KENDALL SPIRIT         (davis raymond)JIMENEZ ALBIN 120 20.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.