Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Tillamook County Fair
Thursday - August 07, 2025
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
TIL-3   WIN (3) 1 $2.00 $2.00  3 $3.20 $1.20 60%
TIL-7   WIN (5/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00  1 $9.80 $3.80 63%
Simulator Race results
 
TIL-1   08/07/2025 3300ft DIRT RC5 SLOW Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($6K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:00
See original race card.
1:07         1:07   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  JUST GOTTA SHINE 2 1 11 1½   12 17½ (van d)MCGREGOR KIAMAN 124 4.00 1.50  
  (by KLIMT out of ADJUST by AFFIRMED)
6  IT'S LATER BURT 4 2 21 2½   22 27½ (craig jam)JENSEN P 126 6.00 8.70  
  (by SIXTHIRTEEN out of NON PAREIL by PREACHINATTHEBAR)
5  DOS ZENSATION 3 3 33 32   33½ 38¼ (lyons s)ELLIS DEVON 124 2.50 0.50  
  (by DOSIFICADO out of ANGEL Z by ZENSATIONAL)
3  SENOR AT WAR 1 4 4100 4100   4100 4100 (guerrero di)GUERRERO C 126 8.00 5% 19.00 6.10  
  (by GIACOMO out of MIDDAY AFFAIR by PIONEEROF THE NILE)
SCR  COME ON AMP               (stillwell tuck)SAMUELS JAKE 126 2.00 35% 1.80    
  (by CURLIN TO MISCHIEF out of DAYLIGHT CAT by DISCREET CAT)
SCR  RED AND READY               (stewart l)TIMENTWA TALLIYAH 121 4.50 35% 1.90    
  (by VRONSKY out of WILD FLEECE by HUSSONET)
 
TIL-3   08/07/2025 3300ft DIRT RC7 SLOW Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:00
See original race card.
1:052         1:052   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  SMOKENSILVER 1 1 1½ 12   13 17¼ (beckner l)SAMUELS JAKE 126 2.00 74% 0.30 0.60 W
5  MR MAKUNOUCHI 3 3 34½ 36   34 27¼ (mccracken ro)SMITH E 126 4.00 2.30  
4  DAD'S JUBILEE 2 2 2½ 22   23 311 (lyons kendr)GUERRERO C 126 3.50 ★ 1.80 S
SCR  TREASURE MESA               (crystal dusti)LOPEZ E 126 3.00    
SCR  WAITINGATTHEBAR               (birdrattl)TIMENTWA TALLIYAH 121 4.50 ★    
 
TIL-5   08/07/2025 3300ft DIRT RC10 SLOW Allowance Purse ($7K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:00
See original race card.
1:051         1:051   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  STEEL NERVES 3 1 11 12½   15 13 (hurley de)TIMENTWA TALLIYAH 121 8.00 2.30  
1  LITTLEQUEENOFMEAN 1 2 21 22½   25 23 (guerrero di)GUERRERO C 126 4.00 43% 1.30 0.50 P
5  JIM'S JET 2 3 32 33½   38 315 (harshman )JENSEN P 126 3.50 1.80  
SCR  CAL               (lyons )RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 8.00 25% 3.10    
SCR  IN WITHOUT KNOCKIN               (lyons kendra)NUNNALLY BLAKE 126 2.50    
SCR  YANKEE PANKEE               (hoover cindy)SAMUELS JAKE 126 2.00    
 
TIL-7   08/07/2025 3300ft DIRT RC7 SLOW Claiming ($5K) Purse ($7K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:00
See original race card.
1:042         1:042   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
1  CHIEFS LIL PEARL 1 2 1½ 1½   12 15 (boyle mary)SAMUELS JAKE 126 8.00 23% 3.40 3.90 W
2  THE GREAT HAYNES 2 5 54½ 43½   44 25 (greine)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.50 1.50  
4  SOFIA STRONG 3 1 2½ 2½   22 35½ (smith jackie)NUNNALLY BLAKE 126 5.00 3.20  
5  HERE'S THE THING 4 3 3½ 31   33 45½ (stewa)FIGUEROA ANTONIO 126 4.00 27% 2.80 4.60  
6  DRINKUP BUTTERCUP 5 4 41½ 54½   57 512¼ (guerrero di)GUERRERO C 126 8.00 14% 6.10 6.50  
7  BACALAR 6 6 66 68½   612 627 (maelfeyt bruno)ELLIS DEVON 126 6.00 6.50  
SCR  BELLS AND WHISTLES               (pollard eli)SMITH E 126 2.50    
 
TIL-8   08/07/2025 3300ft DIRT RC10 SLOW Allowance Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:30
See original race card.
1:071         1:071   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  CORN POP 2 3 2nk 1nk   1nk 13¼ (shiffer h)JENSEN P 126 2.50 1.30  
5  WITHEE 3 1 31 32   31 23¼ (abrahamson mar)SAMUELS JAKE 126 3.00 34% 2.00 1.00 P
1  POLACCO 1 2 1nk 2nk   2nk 36 (cantrell ma)MCGREGOR KIAMAN 126 4.00 24% 3.10 1.70 S
SCR  EL CHAVO DEL OCHO               (birdrattler )SMITH E 126 4.50    
SCR  SPEEDY TOM               (lyons kendr)GUERRERO C 126 2.00    
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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