Handicappers' Race Results
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The Longshot Hunter!
Ferndale
Friday - August 25, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results
Wgr Pick Tot Bet Bet  Winning Pay    
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt  Numbers Amt Profit ROI
FER-2   WIN (1/5/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00  5 $7.60 $1.60 27%
    EXA (1/5/2)-(1/5/2) 6 $1.00 $6.00  5-1 $16.80 $10.80 180%
    DD (3/4)-(1/5/2) 6 $2.00 $12.00  3-5 $30.40 $18.40 153%
FER-4   WIN (4/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00  4 $7.20 $1.20 20%
    EXA (4/6/1)-(4/6/1) 6 $1.00 $6.00  4-6 $14.60 $8.60 143%
    PK3 (1/5/2)-(4/6/3/1)-(4/6/1) 36 $1.00 $36.00  5-6-4 $44.90 $8.90 25%
    PK4 (3/4)-(1/5/2)-(4/6/3/1)-(4/6/1) 72 $0.50 $36.00  3-5-6-4 $44.50 $8.50 24%
Simulator Race results
 
FER-1   08/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($12.5K) Purse ($10K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:15
See original race card.
:243 :481       1:012   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
3  LADY GREGORY 3 2 21 21   1½ 13 (tamayo isidro)FLORES P 126 1.00 48% 1.10 0.60 W
5  SPUN BEAUTIFUL 5 5 32 43   32½ 23 (tamayo isi)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 4.00 3.50  
1  COWLITZ 1 1 11 11   2½ 36 (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 6.00 3.50  
4  MY LITE NITE 4 3 42 33   42½ 47 (hof d)SMITH E 124 3.50 20% 4.00 8.80  
2  ARCTIC FIRE 2 4 52¼ 54   57½ 512¾ (gilmour jim)WEBB B 126 5.00 20.90  
 
FER-2   08/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($4K) Purse ($7.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:44
See original race card.
:234 :474       1:014   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
5  STEEL NERVES 5 2 1nk 15   14 11½ (guerrero emi)SMITH E 126 4.50 18% 4.50 2.80 W
1  OUR GIRL ASHLEY 1 3 31½ 25   24 21½ (hof bi)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 122 2.00 42% 1.40 3.90 P
3  ENGEE OMBEE 3 5 52¾ 56½   46 32¼ (hansen roger)FLORES P 126 2.50 3.60  
6  JERSEY BIRD 6 4 41¾ 35½   35 43 (eaton terr)MONROY FRANCISCO 122 6.00 3.30  
2  LUTE'S DIAMOND 2 6 63¼ 66¾   56½ 55¾ (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 122 5.00 15% 5.80 2.80  
4  HAMPTONRUN 4 1 2nk 45½   68½ 612¼ (aquino an)JENSEN P 126 8.00 24.70  
 
FER-3   08/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($5K) Purse ($9K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:14
See original race card.
:251 :494       1:03   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  MO SUGAFOOT 3 2 31½ 22½   11½ 1¾ (beckner t)IRONEYES R 119 4.50 20% 4.10 0.30 W
5  VISION OF THE KAT 2 3 2½ 32½   33 2¾ (craig )RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 4.00 ★ 2.50 P
1  LILY PAD LAKE 1 1 1½ 12½   21½ 34¼ (naranjo s)JENSEN P 122 10.00 5% 19.00 4.20 S
SCR  CAL               (aquino ang)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 6.00 9% 10.30    
SCR  SPANISH CHANNEL               (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 1.80    
SCR  TEASPOON OF PEPPER               (maelfeyt bru)SMITH E 126 3.00 46% 1.20    
 
FER-4   08/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($3.2K) Purse ($8.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:44
See original race card.
:234 :481       1:014   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
4  SNICKER'N DAN 3 1 2nk 11   12 12 (beckner l)HERRERA HUGO 126 2.00 42% 1.40 2.60 W
6  BOY HOWDY 5 2 1nk 21   22 22 (cantre)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 6.00 23% 3.40 2.60 P
2  SMOKE AND BURN 2 5 57¼ 56½   46 32¾ (gilmour jim)WEBB B 126 12.00 11.30  
5  PIVOTAL FEVER 4 4 43¼ 44   34½ 44 (tamayo isi)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 1.60 0.90  
1  CAPES HOT ROCKET 1 3 33 33   56½ 511¼ (guerrero emi)SMITH E 126 10.00 10% 8.90 19.30  
SCR  FULLY LOADED               (greiner g)JENSEN P 126 4.00    
 
FER-5   08/25/2023 3300ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($4K) Purse ($9.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:14
See original race card.
:232 :474       1:012   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
2  PULPITS POWER 2 5 62 42½   31 12¾ (maelf)CAMACHO-FLORES LEONEL 126 4.00 3.90  
1  SPEEDY TOM 1 3 1nk 11   1½ 22¾ (guerre)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 5.00 13% 6.50 11.90 P
6  DEBT MONGER 6 4 51¾ 63½   63½ 33¼ (aquino angela )HERRERA HUGO 126 6.00 0.90  
3  SKEESIX 3 2 2nk 31½   42 43¼ (hof d)SMITH E 126 2.50 38% 1.60 11.00  
4  TIZ INDY 4 6 3.2 21   2½ 53¼ (guerrer)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126 10.00 24.20  
5  DUMB LUCK 5 1 4¼ 53   53 65½ (tamayo isi)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 2.00 24% 3.20 2.40  
 
FER-6   08/25/2023 4620ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($5K) Purse ($7K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:44
See original race card.
:243 :50 1:152     1:29   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
6  DRAW SOME 6 2 2½ 2½   1nk 1¾ (eaton terri)SMITH E 122 4.00 2.80  
1  FOYT 1 4 32 31½   2nk 2¾ (beckner te)MONROY FRANCISCO 126 1.80 27% 2.70 1.30 P
5  FRESNO CHILE 5 6 65 52½   33½ 33¾ (meier r)FLORES P 117 10.00 5% 19.00 4.40 S
4  NOTCH 4 5 55 65½   56½ 44¼ (ledezma sergio)HERRERA HUGO 122 3.00 4.30  
2  COLTON'S TIGER 2 1 1½ 1½   45½ 58½ (maelfe)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126 3.50 44% 1.30 10.00  
3  HOLY SMOKES 3 3 43 42   68 611½ (eaton t)BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 122 8.00 14.60  
 
 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.
 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.
  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.
 
  Legal:
 

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