tbrs_res_20230810.til.html - Handicappers' Race Results by Thoroughbred Racing Simulator

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Handicappers' Race Results

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Tillamook County Fair
Thursday - August 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

			Wager		Pick											Tot		Bet	Bet	Winning	Crct		Win	Pay		Pay		Profit/
			Type		Numbers											Tkts		Unit	Amt	Numbers	Res		Tkts	Unit		Amt		Loss

TIL-1			Win		(4/5)											2		$2.00	$4.00	3	1		0	$4.40				-4.00
			Trifecta		NO BET											0		$2.00	$0.00	3-2-5	3		0	$19.80				0.00
TIL-3			Win		(1/3/4)											3		$2.00	$6.00	5	1		0	$5.60				-6.00
			Trifecta		(1/3/4)-(1/3/4)-(1/3/4)											6		$2.00	$12.00	5-3-4	3		0	$67.00				-12.00
TIL-5			Win		(2/6)											2		$2.00	$4.00	4	1		0	$5.00				-4.00
			Trifecta		NO BET											0		$2.00	$0.00	4-3-6	3		0	$168.40				0.00
TIL-7			Win		(1/5)											2		$2.00	$4.00	1	1		1	$3.60		$3.60		-0.40
			Trifecta		NO BET											0		$2.00	$0.00	1-5-3	3		0	$11.40				0.00
TIL-8			Win		(2/3/5)											3		$2.00	$6.00	2	1		1	$6.40		$6.40		0.40
			Trifecta		(2/3/5)-(2/3/5)-(2/3/5)											6		$2.00	$12.00	2-5-3	3		1	$34.20		$34.20		22.20
			Daily Double		(1/5)-(2/3/5)											6		$2.00	$12.00	1-2	2		1	$15.00		$15.00		3.00

Simulator Race results


TIL-1			08/10/2023	3300ft		DIRT			FAST				Claiming ($5K)									Purse ($5K)				3UP	M/F	PT- 4:00
	1:01¹				1:01¹				PP		ST	C1	C2	C3	STR		FIN									M/L	W/P	B/E	F/O
3	SMILING SALSA						2	3		2¹		2^½		1^1½	1³		(root ben)SMITH E 126								2.00			1.20
2	SHESALILRUNAWAY						1	1		1¹		1^½		2^1½	2³		(harris j)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 124								1.80			2.60
5	SENSATIONAL CITY						4	2		3^3½		4⁵		4^6½	3^9¾		(lyons s)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126								3.00	64%	0.60	2.00	S
4	LILY PAD LAKE						3	4		4⁴		3^3½		3^6½	4^11¼		(harshman lo)JENSEN P 124								3.50	9%	10.50	3.10
SCR	CAL'S GIRL																(bumgardner j)PRECIADO A 126								10.00

TIL-3			08/10/2023	3300ft		DIRT			FAST				Claiming ($5K)									Purse ($6K)				3UP	M/F	PT- 5:00
	1:00⁴				1:00⁴				PP		ST	C1	C2	C3	STR		FIN									M/L	W/P	B/E	F/O
5	LOW DOSE						5	4		1¹		1⁵		1⁶	1^7½		(hof d)SMITH E 126								3.00			1.80
3	SWISS SCRIPT						3	2		3⁴		3⁵		2⁶	2^7½		(boyle ma)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126								3.50	23%	3.30	3.50	P
4	GREAT CURVES						4	5		5⁶		4⁷		3⁷	3^7¾		(hof d)JENSEN P 126								4.00	13%	6.80	7.70	S
1	BUSY PAYNTER						1	1		2¹		2⁵		4^7½	4^11¼		(lawrence heath)WEBB B 126								1.50	35%	1.90	1.30
2	WATERFALL						2	3		4⁵		5⁸		5^12½	5^17½		(crystal dustie)LOPEZ E 126								4.50			5.10

TIL-5			08/10/2023	3300ft		DIRT			FAST				Maiden Sp Wt									Purse ($5K)				3UP	ALL	PT- 6:00
	1:02				1:02				PP		ST	C1	C2	C3	STR		FIN									M/L	W/P	B/E	F/O
4	MIDNIGHT DADDY						4	2		1^½		1¹		1^½	1¹		(stillwell tucke)LOPEZ E 126								6.00			1.50
3	AX 'S SHORE						3	1		3^1½		3³		2^½	2¹		(dennis clif)IRONEYES R 126								4.50			13.20
6	TIZ CURLY JOE						5	3		2^½		2¹		3²	3^1¾		(crystal dus)JENSEN P 124								2.50	33%	2.00	2.40	S
2	NEATAPAR						2	4		5⁵		5¹⁰		5¹¹	4^15¼		(cantrell mar)PRECIADO A 126								3.00	26%	2.90	1.50
1	LIGHT OF FAITH						1	5		4⁴		4⁸		4¹⁰	5^15¾		(rodriguez ros)GUERRERO C 126								3.50			6.20
SCR	MORDIGAN																(weissner tasha)SMITH E 119								8.00	15%	5.60

TIL-7			08/10/2023	3300ft		DIRT			FAST				Claiming ($4K)									Purse ($6K)				3UP	ALL	PT- 7:00
	1:01¹				1:01¹				PP		ST	C1	C2	C3	STR		FIN									M/L	W/P	B/E	F/O
1	SKEESIX						1	1		1^1½		1^½		1^1½	1¹		(hof d)SMITH E 126								2.00	46%	1.20	0.80	W
5	GENERAL THAYER						4	3		2^1½		2^½		2^1½	2¹		(root ben)CONTRERAS CRUZ 126								2.50	22%	3.40	3.30	P
3	CHUMLY						2	4		3³		3^4½		3^6½	3^7¼		(hof d)JENSEN P 126								3.00			1.30
4	LOOKIN FOR GOLD						3	2		4^5½		4^7½		4^14½	4^18¾		(weissner )BIRDRATTLER RICHARD 126								8.00			9.90
SCR	BREXTON																(craig ja)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126								3.00

TIL-8			08/10/2023	3300ft		DIRT			FAST				Allowance									Purse ($5K)				3UP	ALL	PT- 7:30
	1:01¹				1:01¹				PP		ST	C1	C2	C3	STR		FIN									M/L	W/P	B/E	F/O
2	ROMAN RUSH						1	1		1^nk		1^nk		1¹	1^1¾		(crystal dustie)LOPEZ E 126								2.50	26%	2.80	2.20	W
5	WHOS DALLINS DADDY						4	3		3²		3¹		3¹	2^1¾		(potts as)RODRIGUEZ ELIAS 126								3.00	38%	1.60	3.40	P
3	STARBOARD LIST						2	2		2^nk		2^nk		2¹	3^4¼		(harshman loega)SMITH E 126								4.00	9%	10.50	0.70	S
6	MIZONEY						5	4		4⁴		4⁵		4³	4⁶		(sanguino juan)GUERRERO C 121								4.50			5.80
4	MOLAF						3	5		5⁸		5⁹		5⁷	5^12¼		(romo jose)GARCIA G 126								6.00			21.70
SCR	FOREVER GOLD																(hof d)CRUZ DIAZ 126								8.00



	Labels:
	M/L	Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.
	W/P	Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry shall win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.
	B/E	Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.
	F/O	Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

	Two Groups of Contenders:
	Win Contenders
		The entries in the first group of contenders are printed in bold. TBRSimulator estimates that there is a very high probability that one of these entries shall win the race.
	Place/Show Contenders
		The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. If there are less than five (5) entries in the first group, non-Win contenders are added to the second group in the order of their strengths to round up the total entries in the two groups to five. TBRSimulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected return-on-investment. Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted, in the order that they are listed, to replace scratched entries in the first group. Note that there could be five or more entries in the first group, in which case there would be no second group.

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