Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Tuesday - April 30, 2024
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (5/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $4.12 $4.12  
CD-2   Win (2/6/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $11.90  
CD-3   Win (1/2/5/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $6.12 $6.12  
CD-4   Win (2/6/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $3.28 $3.28  
CD-5   Win (7/6/4/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $8.32 $8.32 0.32
CD-6   Win (4/7/9/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00 9 1 1 $6.84 $6.84  
CD-7   Win (2/7/4/8/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 1 $17.36 $17.36 7.36
CD-8   Win (10/6/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 10 1 1 $3.62 $3.62  
CD-9   Win (1/13/3/6/12) 5 $2.00 $10.00 1 1 1 $4.32 $4.32  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 4UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:214 :444 :563     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DREAMSTER 1 4 42 2nk   13 1 (lightner mar)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 1.60 27% 2.70 1.06 W
MUSIC CITY STAR 2 5 32 4   44 2 (antonucci m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 5% 19.00 9.29 P
MARGOINABUBBLEBATH 3 3 21 31   34 35 (shirer a)LANERIE J 118 5.00 2.50  
BLAME DAY 4 1 11 1nk   23 4 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 2.50 46% 1.20 3.95  
ROSE PALACE 5 2 57 58   511 518¾ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 5.97  
SCR  FROZEN SOLID               (lynch a)NELSON TYRONE 118 3.50    
 
CD-2   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($62K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :474 1:12 1:372   1:441   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SUNNY ISLE BEACH 3 3 32 33 31 1 1 (shirer a)CHUAN MARTIN 120 3.50 4.95  
JUMP INTO THE FIRE 2 2 11 11 1nk 2 2 (colebrook ben)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 33% 2.00 0.80 P
GUANA CAY 1 5 53 5 54 3 3 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 5% 19.00 9.21 S
LUNA MOTH 5 4 42 4 42 4 4 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 2.50 23% 3.30 2.98  
AMAZON QUEEN 4 1 21 21 2nk 5 512¾ (lauer michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 6.01  
SCR  MY GOOD FORTUNE               (hartman chris)ORTIZ L 118 6.00    
 
CD-3   04/30/2024 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 4UP M/F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:221 :452 1:103     1:171   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONDIMENT GIRL 1 5 2nk 3   3 1nk (atras rob)ORTIZ L 118 3.00 60% 0.70 2.06 W
MAZOKU 8 3 31 21   2 2nk (butcher james)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 6.00 16.74  
FOREVER HOME 7 1 1nk 11   1 3 (garcia genaro)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00 25.47  
GHOSTLY NIGHT 5 6 6 52   43 4 (shirer a)ORTIZ JR 118 3.50 7% 13.20 3.86  
ENDLESS 3 7 8 79   6 5 (adams l)HESS SARA 111 20.00 5% 19.00 38.13  
GOSHEN 6 8 7 8   88 6 (foster eric)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 11.03  
SENSE YOU LEFT 2 4 4 42   7 7 (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 120 2.50 8% 11.30 1.90  
LEMON BOMB 4 2 5 63   5 811¾ (orantes r)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 6.50  
 
CD-4   04/30/2024 6600ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:233 :48 1:122 1:371   2:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BATTEN DOWN 2 11 12 12 14 18 1 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 118 1.00 38% 1.60 0.64 W
DAILY GRIND 6 74 6 4 3 28 2 (lukas wayn)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50 26% 2.90 4.46 P
MO RUM 3 21 22 22 24 3 313¼ (stall albert)LOVEBERRY JARETH 126 8.00 11% 8.50 19.83 S
BETTERA 5 4 75 7 58 413½ 418½ (stall m)ORTIZ L 126 8.00 5% 19.00 5.84  
BRICKLAYER 1 53 32 32 46 514½ 520½ (mccarthy michae)ORTIZ JR 118 5.00 5.59  
GET AHEAD NOW 4 64 54 6 611½ 619½ 629 (wilkes r)CONNER TYLER 126 15.00 25.86  
LET'S BOUNCE 7 32 43 54 711½ 719½ 730 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 12.00 24.08  
 
CD-5   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:234 :481 1:122 1:361   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PHILEAS FOGG 6 2 11 11 11 1 1 (toner j)ORTIZ L 127 3.00 55% 0.80 3.16 W
GATLINBURG 7 3 21 21 21 2 2 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 125 8.00 5% 19.00 15.26 P
LUNA VIEJA 3 8 74 5 3 3 3 (amoss m)CURTIS BEN 125 12.00 5% 19.00 2.20 S
11  CARCANO 9 7 8 8 7 47 410¾ (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 125 12.00 4.65  
MILLERS RITE 4 4 5 63 8 59 513½ (vance thoma)BEALMEAR C 118 30.00 19.13  
GO BALI GO 1 5 3 4 6 6 615 (nance jonathan)CEDILLO ABEL 125 20.00 42.24  
THREE ON THE TREE 2 9 96 9 9 811 715½ (lovell michel)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 15.00 28.97  
STONEMONT REUNION 8 6 4 3 4 710½ 818¼ (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 125 30.00 32.19  
BATTLE OF NORMANDY 5 1 63 7 5 911 919¾ (mcgaughey cl)GAFFALIONE TYLER 125 1.60 19% 4.40 2.50  
SCR  ALEXIS ZORBA (GB)               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 125 3.00    
SCR  BERRETTINI               (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00    
SCR  DEGREE OF RISK               (harty eoin)GRAHAM J 125 15.00    
SCR  FREDO               (sano antonio)ALVARADO JUNIOR 125 2.50    
SCR  IDRATHERBEBLESSED               (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 125 12.00    
SCR  OSCAR'S WORLD               (lynch a)ROSARIO JOEL 118 4.00    
SCR  TIVERTON (GB)               (murphy conor)CANNON DECLAN 125 20.00    
 
CD-6   04/30/2024 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($10K) Purse ($31K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:232 :472 1:122 1:251   1:383   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DREAMING ALWAYS 7 7 7 6 3 2 11 (forster grant )BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 5.00 15% 5.60 2.42 W
ELLA FRANCES 6 5 31 3.2 11 1 21 (beckman whitwort)CURTIS BEN 124 6.00 5% 19.00 4.78 P
LUBU 2 4 6 5 44 4 33 (ramirez ricardo )CONNER TYLER 118 8.00 11.86  
COLLECT A LIL 3 3 2nk 1nk 21 33 46 (davis christophe)ORTIZ L 124 1.60 29% 2.50 1.39  
MISSY BEE 1 2 5 4 7 59 515 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 10.00 13.11  
OUTRAGEOUSLY 5 6 4 7 5 610½ 624½ (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 3.50 24% 3.20 5.61  
ZERO CLICK 4 1 1nk 2nk 6 714½ 731 (norris mike)CANUTO THIAGO 124 30.00 33.06  
SCR  FLORIS               (duvall e)CASTANON L 124 20.00    
SCR  SCOOP               (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 8.00    
 
CD-7   04/30/2024 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:24 :481 1:132 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PIVOSKY 7 2 5 5 42 1 1¾ (vance d)LANERIE J 124 5.00 9% 10.20 7.68 W
BROUGHTY FERRY 8 5 73 7 6 34 2¾ (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.00 5% 19.00 6.02 P
MO SENSE 1 8 6 8 8 2 3 (amoss m)MONCADA IRVING 108 5.00 7.34  
MISS TAPPY TONE 4 7 8 6 7 55 4 (hartman chris)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 8% 12.10 3.53  
CORKAGE FEE 6 1 3½ 2nk 1½ 44 58 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 118 8.00 24.08  
LASERJET 5 9 9 9 9 6 69 (antonuik jerr)CONCEPCION AXEL 124 15.00 5% 19.00 14.32  
TRANSPARENCY 3 6 41 4 5 7 710 (esquivel jesus)ORTIZ JR 124 3.00 1.89  
LEUCADIA 9 3 2½ 3 3 9 814¼ (forster grant)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 10.00 11.42  
STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 2 4 1½ 1nk 2½ 8 919 (sims p)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 52% 0.90 10.94  
 
CD-8   04/30/2024 3300ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:22 :443       :564   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  CLEARLY UNHINGED 6 5 2½ 2nk   11 1 (asmussen steven )ROSARIO JOEL 122 1.20 39% 1.60 0.81 W
PISTOL 5 4 43 3   3 2 (van tho)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 9.28  
FILLY CRYSTAL 2 2 1½ 1nk   21 3 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 122 8.00 30% 2.30 5.09 S
LAURA'S CHARM 3 3 65 4   46 4 (kerrick lac)LEPAROUX R 122 6.00 16.22  
ADMISSIBLE 4 6 5 56   5 5 (d'angelo f)VELAZQUEZ R 122 6.00 5% 19.00 12.75  
QUICK MUNNY 1 1 3 6   610½ 621½ (atras rob)ORTIZ L 122 3.50 2.71  
SCR  HOWBOUTDEMAPPLES               (joseph a)ORTIZ JR 122 3.00    
SCR  HURRY UP HANNAH               (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
SCR  KRISPY RICE               (walsh d)CEDILLO ABEL 122 20.00    
SCR  QUEEN OF THE MUD (IRE)               (motion gra)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50    
 
CD-9   04/30/2024 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:212 :45 :571     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GLOBAL STAGE 1 5 4 3   1½ 1 (cox h)CONCEPCION AXEL 125 1.00 48% 1.10 1.16 W
13  READIER 12 2 5 2½   31 2 (lightner mary)ORTIZ JR 125 5.00 16% 5.20 2.82 P
BLAST FURNACE 6 4 2nk 1½   2½ 3 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 118 15.00 5% 19.00 24.47 S
CAT ON TIME 8 10 1110¼ 9   7 47 (miller darrin)MILLER CHASE 125 15.00 42.15  
GRAND SAM 7 9 7 8   5 5 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 10.00 14.58  
10  MALIBLUE 10 3 3.2 4   4 6 (foster eric)CEDILLO ABEL 118 30.00 38.70  
PATRIARCHAL 9 1 6 6   65 78 (stall m)SAEZ LUIS 118 8.00 11.24  
SEVEN TAYLORS 2 11 10 10   8 8 (moger jr)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 31.59  
12  MO HOPE 11 7 9 7   9 911 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 125 12.00 5% 19.00 22.52  
MIDNIGHT AMBITION 3 6 1nk 52   1012½ 1021¼ (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 5.00 12% 7.60 11.18  
TWO BEERS BY TEN 4 8 8 1110¾   1114½ 1122½ (maker j)GARCIA MARTIN 118 15.00 11.21  
BOZDAGI 5 12 1228¼ 12100   12100 12100 (guida anth)RODRIGUEZ A 125 20.00 54.87  
SCR  BAD BOY FOR LIFE               (wilkes r)ROSARIO JOEL 125 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.