Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Wednesday - November 15, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (3/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 6 1 1 $8.24 $8.24 4.24
CD-2   Win (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $15.36  
CD-3   Win (7/2/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $6.98 $6.98 0.98
CD-4   Win (4/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $7.64 $7.64 1.64
CD-5   Win (1/8/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 1 $4.06 $4.06  
CD-6   Win (7/2/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $6.22 $6.22 0.22
CD-7   Win (4/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $7.72  
CD-8   Win (1/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $9.94 $9.94 3.94
CD-9   Win (11/8/6/4/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 12 1 0 $40.72  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($42K) 2 ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:223 :453 1:113     1:254   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BETTERING 4 2 2½ 1nk   1 1 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 118 8.00 27% 2.70 3.12 W
MI OSCURO SECRETO 1 1 46 46   3 2 (bahena ismael)LAGUNES GABRIEL 118 15.00 6.78  
FAMILY FACTOR 2 4 1½ 2nk   2 34 (colebrook be)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 45% 1.20 0.53 S
POINT AT YOU 3 3 3½ 34   415½ 423¾ (claire alexis)MCKEE J 118 10.00 4.24  
SCR  DUNPHY               (ennis john)MORALES EDGAR 118 1.00    
SCR  NEON DEION               (rivelli larr)CORRALES GERARDO 118 5.00    
 
CD-2   11/15/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($48K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:104     1:242   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GOSHEN 2 1 12 12   1 1 (esquivel je)CORREA L 118 10.00 6.68  
SHE DAZZLE 3 6 58 4   2 2 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 3.50 38% 1.60 1.02 P
QUARTERFLASH 1 5 68 610½   59 3 (girten tim)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.00 19% 4.30 3.33 S
FAIRY CAKES (GB) 6 2 22 22   3 4 (mcentee paul)ASHTON GAVIN 120 10.00 14% 6.10 7.26  
EVERYOTHERWON 5 4 46 57   4 510¾ (hill f)ELLIOTT JANE 120 8.00 3.61  
WILL VIRGINIA DARE 4 3 3 34   612½ 619½ (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 118 20.00 49.38  
SCR  SET THE PACE               (becker scot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 2.50    
SCR  SIS BOOM BOB               (esquiv)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 120 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:214 :451 :573     1:103   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TROPIC STORM 3 1 2½ 2   2½ 13 (habeeb j)ASHTON GAVIN 120 2.50 18% 4.60 2.49 W
KENTUCKY BOURBON 4 7 74 7   65 23 (engler jeff)MACHADO LUAN 120 4.00 5.48  
GHENT 2 2 1½ 1   1½ 3 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50 20% 4.00 8.29 S
HAROLD'S CLOUD 7 4 6 5   44 4 (scherer marianne)ROCCO S 118 4.00 30% 2.30 4.56  
SHOTSHELL 6 3 4 32   54 56 (shirer mat)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 1.44  
ENJOYMENT 5 6 52 4   33 66 (gorostieta ciri)MORALES EDGAR 120 8.00 20.88  
GOLDEN REIGN 1 5 3 65   77 710¾ (toye lin)ELLIOTT JANE 118 12.00 32.70  
 
CD-4   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:222 :461 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DANCING NANCY 4 2 1 1½   1 1½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 15% 5.70 2.82 W
BLENHEIM BABY 6 1 4 2½   2 2½ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 1.63  
FASTA LAVISTA BABY 1 7 6 43   3 3¾ (scherer marianne)ROCCO S 119 3.50 5.53  
JUST AN OPINION 3 4 32 7   5 4 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 39% 1.60 2.68  
GOLD DEL MAR 2 6 74 65   6 5 (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 9.49  
THE BIG BANSHEE 7 5 5 31   45 6 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 12.00 33.43  
CITY SHACK 5 3 2 5   7 7 (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 119 12.00 10% 8.60 42.72  
SCR  WAMPUS KITTEN               (casse w)SAEZ LUIS 119 3.00    
 
CD-5   11/15/2023 5280ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:104 1:23   1:354   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FREE LOOK 1 4 5 4 11 1nk 1½ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 1.80 40% 1.50 1.03 W
BEST PERFORMER 4 2 4 5 21 2nk 2½ (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 23% 3.40 5.43 P
TITUBA 5 3 2nk 21 32 33 3 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 8.07  
15  CONDONE 6 6 31 32 42 4 47 (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00 2.98  
HERINGTON ROCKET 2 1 1nk 11 5 5 510¼ (navarrete anna)MCKEE J 121 10.00 9% 10.60 8.70  
THE CLUB 3 5 6 6 6 611½ 624¼ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 15.00 8.89  
SCR  SAKE (FR)               (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 12.00    
SCR  STAR FORTRESS (IRE)               (devaux cherie)GEROUX FLORENT 121 10.00    
SCR  OUR DOTSIE               (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00    
SCR  MINT EDITION               (wilkes r)CANNON DECLAN 121 20.00    
SCR  EMPIRICAL VIEW               (divito jame)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
SCR  DANCE THE DAY AWAY               (decker anna)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 20.00    
SCR  STORM BAY               (devaux cherie)CARROLL DECLAN 118 15.00    
SCR  ALYBAER               (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 15.00    
SCR  AROUND THE SUN               (arnold geor)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 12.00    
 
CD-6   11/15/2023 6270ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($62.5K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:234 :482 1:122 1:371   1:57   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ALLEGE 2 5 11 11 1½ 1 1 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 4.00 24% 3.10 2.11 W
ETHICAL JUDGEMENT 1 3 42 4 4 34 2 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 121 3.00 4.51  
MAILMAN MONEY 6 1 5 53 53 56 3 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 121 10.00 12.35  
KEYSTONE FIELD 7 2 32 32 31 2 4 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.00 28% 2.50 1.77  
SEARCH ENGINE 4 4 21 21 2½ 4 5 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 3.50 14% 6.10 5.67  
NAUTILUS (BRZ) 5 6 7 6 64 67 610¼ (lobo h)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 15.00 15.83  
ICARUS 3 7 6 74 7 78 712 (simms jr)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 14.51  
 
CD-7   11/15/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($31K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:214 :451 :572     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BOLT ABOVE 2 7 64 5   2nk 1½ (shirer a)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 2.86  
VALE 7 1 2½ 11   1nk 2½ (simms mark)SANTANA JR 120 4.00 20% 3.90 6.90 P
LORD GRANTHAM 3 4 42 21   3½ 3 (hartman chris)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 28% 2.60 1.58 S
HARDY CHOICE 4 2 5 31   42 4 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 4.96  
MIDWAY MIRACLE 5 6 77 77   57 5 (short thoma)HERNANDEZ J 120 15.00 32.72  
LOVE SPELL 1 5 3 63   6 615½ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 2.00 25% 3.10 3.44  
GOT THE BOB 6 3 1½ 4   7 726 (gonzalez rein)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 15.00 54.34  
SCR  DAVID'S TUITION               (baker james)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00    
 
CD-8   11/15/2023 5940ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($125K) Purse ($134K) 3 ALL PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:231 :464 1:112 1:362   1:492   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WIZARD OF WESTWOOD 2 3 26 25 2½ 1 1 (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 10% 8.80 3.97 W
QUADRA ISLAND 6 1 4 5 4 2 2 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 4.78  
REALLY GOOD 3 6 5 4 5 47 313¼ (maker j)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 25% 2.90 9.30 S
FEARLESS SOLDIER 1 5 3 37 32 36 413¼ (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.50 41% 1.40 1.03  
KIGALI 5 2 16 15 1½ 5 517½ (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 120 8.00 10.54  
RARIFIED FLAIR 4 4 610 614 614½ 617½ 627¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 10.00 5.14  
SCR  OCEAN POINTE               (estvanko richa)RAMOS D 118 6.00    
SCR  TOOFAREASTISWEST               (trombetta mich)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00    
 
CD-9   11/15/2023 4290ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($100K) Purse ($62K) 2 ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:224 :454 1:103     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  ONE RED CENT 12 1 2½ 1nk   13 1 (jazdzewski j)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 19.36  
STORMY MESA 6 4 6 5   23 2 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 5.00 23% 3.30 3.29 P
CHARLESTON 8 5 3 2nk   3 3 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 23% 3.30 4.45 S
11  CATALINA CRUSH 11 6 4 42   4 45 (casse w)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 25% 3.10 3.13  
GENO'S MYTH 5 2 8 8   78 57 (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 29.05  
TIMING DIFFERENCE 9 11 1210¼ 1010¼   8 6 (brown chad)SANTANA JR 119 8.00 12.19  
SPIN THE BOULEVARD 4 3 1½ 31   5 7 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 119 6.00 9% 10.60 7.83  
GIVE ME LIBERTY 2 12 10 1110¼   9 810 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 119 12.00 4.82  
TOOLPUSHER 1 10 7 6   6 910½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 15.00 50.22  
10  FLYING B B 10 7 9 9   1010¼ 1012¾ (jones larr)MICHEL MICKAELLE 119 15.00 40.08  
PALHACO 7 8 11 1214¼   1213¼ 1113¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5% 19.00 20.98  
MIDCAT 3 9 5 7   1110¾ 1214½ (wilkes ian )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 45.47  
SCR  CAJUN FOOL               (ramirez m)ROCCO S 119 10.00    
SCR  PETINGAS TWIN               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.