Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Friday - November 10, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (4/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $9.38 $9.38 3.38
CD-2   Win (15/6/12/10/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 15 1 1 $5.50 $5.50  
CD-3   Win (1/6/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $6.58  
CD-4   Win (2/8/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 0 $6.26  
CD-5   Win (5/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $5.62 $5.62  
CD-6   Win (5/7/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $2.80 $2.80  
CD-7   Win (4/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $3.16 $3.16  
CD-8   Win (5/12/7/10) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $8.16 $8.16 0.16
CD-9   Win (10/11/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $13.94  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/10/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($16K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:11     1:174   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
RAYMOND 4 3 2 21   2½ 1nk (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 120 2.50 58% 0.70 3.69 W
SCOOTERANDDABIGMAN 6 2 1 11   1½ 2nk (langemeier john)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 6.26  
ASPEN CLUB 3 5 3 3   3 33 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 4.42 DH
ASHAAB 5 4 5 65   56 33 (moreno-barban leand)SAEZ LUIS 120 5.00 4.62 DH
READY PURSUIT 7 1 43 4   44 5 (gonzalez e)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 10.76  
LONGSHADOW 1 7 6 5   66 64 (combs bentley)TORRES A 120 3.00 15% 5.80 1.66  
FASTBYTE 2 6 76 77   7 7 (esquivel je)CORREA L 118 8.00 5% 19.00 24.44  
 
CD-2   11/10/2023 3300ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 1:30
See original race card.
:223 :453       :58   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
15  BARAYE 10 1 2nk 1nk   1nk 1nk (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 116 4.00 26% 2.90 1.75 W
12  SILENT HEART 9 2 1nk 2nk   2nk 2nk (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 19% 4.30 7.04 P
TRUST ISSUES 1 11 107 8   4 3 (lovell michell)TORRES A 119 15.00 12.43  
CAMARO Z 3 4 3 4   35 4 (foley greg)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 27.10  
11  TROUBLE'S ROARING 8 9 5 6   67 5 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 14.80  
IN A JAM 4 5 9 7   7 6 (casse mark)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 22% 3.60 4.69  
10  BRENNAN'S HONOR 7 8 43 3   56 7 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 10% 8.80 4.26  
IRISH RANSOM 2 3 8 910¾   911½ 811¾ (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 10.00 5% 19.00 34.68  
CRASH THE GATE 6 6 6 5   89 912½ (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 8.98  
AUSTIN STRONG 5 7 11 1112¼   1012½ 1012¾ (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 24.97  
16  MEET YOU NOW 11 10 7 1011¾   1117½ 1124 (aceved)PADRON-BARCENAS JAVIER 119 15.00 52.92  
SCR  FAMOUS FINAL SCENE               (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00    
SCR  GENO'S MYTH               (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
SCR  HENRO               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
SCR  NORWICH               (devaux cher)TORRES A 119 4.00    
SCR  TRAP LINE               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 12.00    
 
CD-3   11/10/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($68K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:00
See original race card.
:242 :483 1:132 1:38   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DIGITAL 4 1 32 3 3 2nk 1 (hiles rick)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 2.29  
EXPENSIVE CUT 5 4 22 21 2nk 3.2 2 (west m)MORALES EDGAR 121 6.00 6.44  
W W CRAZY 6 6 5 52 5 5 3 (becker scot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 15.00 13% 6.70 11.57 S
HEARTBREAKER 2 2 12 11 1nk 1nk 4 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 121 2.00 1.84  
HE'S GOT THIS 1 3 6 6 6 4 5 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 121 2.50 34% 1.90 2.97  
BIRD KING 7 5 4 4 4 6 6 (londono genevieve)GRAHAM J 121 8.00 10% 9.00 17.08  
LAND MARK DEAL 3 7 7 75 7 7 710¾ (manley steve)ORM CORY 121 12.00 26.95  
 
CD-4   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:30
See original race card.
:212 :444 :571     1:101   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TENENBAUM 5 1 2½ 1   14 1 (drury jr)SAEZ LUIS 122 5.00 2.13  
MUSICAL PRAYER 2 3 3 53   24 2 (vaccarezza c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 3.50 33% 2.00 2.40 P
A DOLLAR A DAY 4 6 6 6   5 3 (butcher james)AYALA ISAIAS 124 12.00 24.44  
MARMALADE SKYE 3 4 1½ 2   3 410 (jacobs magda)ACHARD ALEX 122 10.00 16% 5.30 36.85  
PORT TOWNSEND 6 2 4 3   46 511½ (devaux cher)TORRES A 122 4.00 4.50  
TAPITARA 1 7 7 7   711½ 615½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 122 10.00 16.53  
KID'S LAST LAUGH 7 5 5 4   69 717¼ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 23% 3.40 2.38  
SCR  SPEEDY TRAVELER               (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 122 5.00    
 
CD-5   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:01
See original race card.
:213 :45 :57     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ONE GIANT LEAP 5 2 11 1   12 1 (ward a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.00 58% 0.70 1.81 W
FORREST CITY 8 4 21 2   22 2 (mott william)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.50 1.83 P
OWN THE FIELD 6 1 6 6   57 3 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 118 6.00 6.58  
BACKSIDE BUZZ 4 3 31 32   3 4 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 3.50 6.28  
EMPERADOR 1 8 8 79   67 57 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 120 15.00 13% 7.00 16.18  
GOODASIWONSWAS 3 5 5 4   4 6 (warpool shane)GEROUX FLORENT 120 10.00 10.84  
CAPTAIN JACK 7 7 7 810½   7 716¾ (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00 18.88  
HOCUS (GB) 2 6 43 56   811 823¾ (thompson michae)CANNON DECLAN 120 15.00 5% 19.00 22.13  
 
CD-6   11/10/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($127K) 2 F PT- 3:31
See original race card.
:231 :464 1:114 1:233   1:353   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THORPEDO ANNA 6 5 3½ 4 1nk 15 19 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.50 35% 1.90 0.40 W
PEIGNOIR 2 2 1nk 2½ 2nk 25 29 (brisset rodolp)GEROUX FLORENT 122 5.00 7.73  
COZEE RAGS 3 4 6 3 53 38 311½ (michael brian)CALLEJA ANDRES 110 6.00 9% 10.00 15.61 S
BOURBON BREEZE 4 6 5 6 42 4 418 (mott riley)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 2.00 35% 1.80 2.56  
UMEBOSHI 1 1 2nk 1½ 3 5 519 (brisset rodolphe)ACHARD ALEX 122 12.00 28.76  
MISS TENA MARIE 5 3 42 5 67 614½ 623¼ (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 120 20.00 79.89  
SCR  ICE COLD               (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 122 3.00    
 
CD-7   11/10/2023 7260ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:01
See original race card.
:243 :501 1:144 1:392   2:041   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BEAR OAK 3 3 3 32 32 3 11 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 4.00 45% 1.20 0.58 W
O P FIRECRACKER 5 21 2nk 2 1nk 1nk 21 (medina robe)TORRES A 121 8.00 5.65  
TOUGH TICKETS 6 11 1nk 1 2nk 2nk 3 (wyner harold)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 8.00 6.90  
FOWLER BLUE 4 42 42 43 4 43 4 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 121 10.00 4.90  
CORELLI 1 6 5 5 5 5 518 (thomas jonatha)GEROUX FLORENT 121 3.50 29% 2.50 8.12  
WIND TWIST 2 54 63 6 6 613½ 626½ (sandy steph)CORREA L 121 30.00 5% 19.00 41.45  
SCR  CATCH THAT PARTY               (maker j)VELAZQUEZ R 123 4.00    
SCR  CREATIVE MINISTER               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 121 1.60    
SCR  FEBRUARY SON               (granitz anthony )CASTANON L 121 15.00    
SCR  MR. BIG NEWS               (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00    
SCR  ROMAN CENTURIAN               (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00    
SCR  TEMPLE               (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.00    
 
CD-8   11/10/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:33
See original race card.
:213 :452 :572     1:093   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ZEITLOS 3 7 5 5   2½ 1¾ (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 4.00 35% 1.90 3.08 W
12  MARIAH'S APPEAL 9 5 4¼ 11   1½ 2¾ (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 118 6.00 31% 2.20 1.56 P
PUMPKIN SCONE 5 1 1nk 31   3 3 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 8.00 9% 10.00 6.01 S
11  THE GREAT MAYBE 8 8 6 42   4 4 (devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 6.00 3.72  
SWEET CURALINA 4 9 912 910¾   711 512¼ (stall alber)LEPAROUX R 120 30.00 52.60  
ERVADEAN 1 4 84 7   6 612¼ (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 20.00 18.31  
RO TOWN 6 3 3.2 21   5 714 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 25.68  
PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS 2 6 72 8   812½ 825½ (o'connor r)LANERIE J 118 30.00 50.23  
10  THREE POLKS 7 2 2nk 6   914½ 928 (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 5% 19.00 9.49  
SCR  BANDITA               (pletcher a)VELAZQUEZ R 118 3.00    
SCR  MIGHTY MADISON               (bauer a)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 12.00    
SCR  SOCIALLY SELECTIVE               (mott i)SAEZ LUIS 118 5.00    
SCR  SOUPER EXPLOSIVE               (casse mark)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 15.00    
 
CD-9   11/10/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($66K) 3UP ALL PT- 5:05
See original race card.
:234 :48 1:124 1:383   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BRIGHT SPARK 2 10 1014¼ 1012½ 10 42 1 (flint bernard )BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 8.00 5.97  
PRINCELY 5 8 811¾ 89 8 5 2 (mcpeek kenn)TORRES A 118 4.50 4.67  
WINSTON WOLF 6 1 6 7 65 32 3 (oliver victoria)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 5% 19.00 22.61 S
SINGLE RULER 8 6 36 43 2nk 1 4 (forster t)MORALES EDGAR 118 3.50 2.13  
10  DANCE SOME MO 9 5 13 12 1nk 2 5 (rosin coty )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 5.00 61% 0.60 4.46  
STAR NATION 1 9 912¼ 911 9 7 6 (hartlage g)ELLIOTT JANE 118 30.00 76.71  
HONED 3 3 23 3 32 6 710¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 4.00 5.11  
GLEN AIRY 4 4 710¼ 6 54 87 811¾ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 118 12.00 14.03  
ICONICUS 7 2 5 5 7 99 913 (pompell rob)BENDEZU ALEXANDER 120 30.00 63.81  
11  GAMER 10 7 46 22 43 1012 1022 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 121 6.00 16% 5.40 10.14  
SCR  BOONE'S PATH               (young terry)HERNANDEZ J 121 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.