Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - November 04, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (1/6) 2 $2.00 $4.00 2 1 0 $7.02  
CD-2   Win (4/2) 2 $2.00 $4.00 4 1 1 $2.70 $2.70  
CD-3   Win (1/8/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $6.10 $6.10  
CD-4   Win (3/1/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 0 $8.30  
CD-5   Win (1/8/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $11.64 $11.64 3.64
CD-6   Win (4/5/1/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $29.56 $29.56 21.56
CD-7   Win (4/1/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 0 $7.04  
CD-8   Win (12/6/7/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 11 1 0 $9.46  
CD-9   Win (6/4/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $15.92 $15.92 7.92
CD-10   Win (8/1/7/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $11.36 $11.36 3.36
CD-11   Win (7/4/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $4.72 $4.72  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   11/04/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($54K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:234 :472 1:12     1:25   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STEEL RACER 2 1 1nk 1½   1nk 1¾ (medina robe)LEPAROUX R 118 2.50 2.51  
WHAT'S TO DO 1 4 5 4   2nk 2¾ (damato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 2.00 42% 1.40 1.76 P
MISS TAPPY TONE 3 5 4 5   31 3 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 118 4.00 2.42  
FAST GAL 4 2 2nk 2½   4 4 (porter michael)COURT K 118 6.00 4.90  
BYZANTINE 5 3 32 3½   5 515¼ (morse l)MACHADO LUAN 120 12.00 17% 4.90 8.57  
SCR  BEAUTIFUL AND BOLD               (compton gre)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.50    
 
CD-2   11/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($10K) Purse ($52K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:40
See original race card.
:213 :45 :57     1:094   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LIKE A SALTSHAKER 3 2 1nk 1½   1nk 1nk (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 1.00 73% 0.40 0.35 W
JUNIOR BUG 2 3 32 2½   2nk 2nk (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 6.00 5% 19.00 4.27 P
SPEND BENJAMINS 5 5 57 46   32 3¾ (shorter aaron)LANERIE J 121 10.00 10.17  
ALL WEST 1 4 4 56   45 46 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 2.00 4.66  
SAND MOUNTAIN 4 1 2nk 3   58 516¾ (schlenk k)HUGHES CARLY 121 20.00 50.58  
SCR  SHACKLEFORD STRONG               (divito jame)TORRES A 121 5.00    
 
CD-3   11/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($30K) Purse ($50K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:17
See original race card.
:214 :461 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
THE PRINCESS SAYS 7 2 54 2½   11 1 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 2.50 20% 4.00 2.05 W
SHESASMALLTOWNGIRL 8 1 3 31   21 2 (maker j)GRAHAM J 122 3.00 23% 3.40 3.23 P
VALIANT PRAISE 3 6 67 55   4 35 (mcpeek kennet)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 6.00 12% 7.10 6.13 S
LIL TOWN SIS 2 8 8 8   5 4 (lovell michelle)ASHTON GAVIN 124 8.00 10.86  
AUNT JO 1 3 1 1½   33 5 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 3.50 25% 3.10 3.62  
ISLANDINTHESTREAM 4 7 2 4   66 614¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 4.50 5.09  
ROCKABILLIE 6 5 7 77   7 716¼ (silva carlo)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 40.62  
PROUD PERFORMER 5 4 4 6   8 819¾ (king l)TORRES A 122 20.00 47.68  
 
CD-4   11/04/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:55
See original race card.
:224 :46 1:104     1:241   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LET'S BE CLEAR 4 4 3 33   11 12 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 120 3.00 3.15  
HONEY RUN 2 7 6 7   44 22 (hartman chris)NAVAS YOEL 113 5.00 9.63  
ZING 3 5 76 55   54 3 (claire alexi)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 5.00 53% 0.90 7.12 S
MERCY WARREN 5 3 1½ 1½   21 44 (o'connor robert )MACHADO LUAN 120 3.50 3.92  
LOVE OF MY HEART 1 6 44 45   6 56 (maker j)GRAHAM J 120 4.00 19% 4.20 2.45  
PIPELINE GIRL 7 2 2½ 2½   33 6 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 120 4.50 8.39  
FOUNDER'S DAY 6 1 5 6   7 712¾ (amoss m)LANERIE J 120 10.00 5% 19.00 5.43  
 
CD-5   11/04/2023 3300ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:35
See original race card.
:221 :454       :581   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHEFFLIN 5 4 2nk 2nk   2nk 1½ (morey e)FELIX E 122 10.00 5% 19.00 4.82 W
TASTERFOR THE KING 4 1 1nk 1nk   1nk 2½ (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 122 3.00 15% 5.50 5.06 P
BE THERE 6 5 54 6   5 3 (zito nichol)TORRES A 124 5.00 7.09  
PINFIRE 1 2 31 42   3 4 (tomlinson m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 2.50 36% 1.70 0.98  
CUORE SACRO 7 6 6 53   4 5 (lynch a)GRAHAM J 122 3.50 27% 2.70 5.62  
PAPA ALDEN 2 3 4 31   6 6 (kerrick lacy)LOVEBERRY JARETH 122 12.00 26.47  
WHISKEY AND EASY 3 7 7 7   710¾ 711 (sharp joe)QUINONEZ ALONSO 122 10.00 26.65  
UNCLE WILLIAM 8 8 813¼ 819½   818¾ 818¾ (guida e)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00 40.40  
SCR  OTIS ON THE CAPE               (paye jose)CHUAN MARTIN 122 12.00    
 
CD-6   11/04/2023 5610ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($30K) Purse ($56K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:15
See original race card.
:241 :481 1:124 1:383   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TIMELY PROSPECT 5 4 2nk 1nk 1nk 11 1¼ (mckeever andrew)CANNON DECLAN 121 10.00 17% 4.90 13.78 W
WASHINGTON'S UNION 3 2 32 31 4 21 2¼ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 120 10.00 5% 19.00 10.49 P
JR'S GIFT 4 1 4 4 31 3 33 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 121 1.80 41% 1.40 1.47 S
WESLAN 1 5 7 8 7 5 44 (wainwright )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 10.00 11% 8.40 16.27  
DESERT WOLF 6 3 1nk 2nk 2nk 4 58 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 120 2.00 2.23  
HARLEEZY 7 8 8 7 56 6 6 (hartlage g)ELLIOTT JANE 118 20.00 11.09  
PHILHARMONIC 2 7 6 65 8 712½ 716¼ (zito p)MARTIN MATTIE 113 15.00 37.99  
CARNIVORE 8 6 54 5 67 815½ 844¼ (shorter aaron)LANERIE J 121 5.00 4.64  
 
CD-7   11/04/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:103     1:23   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
KNIGHTSBRIDGE 3 5 42 31   1 110½ (mott i)GRAHAM J 119 4.50 2.52  
GIVE ME A REASON 1 4 2½ 41   2 210½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 21% 3.70 4.45 P
10  LOU'S LEGACY 8 2 5 5   47 311¼ (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 119 20.00 23.31  
LEFT TACKLE 5 6 6 8   811 413¾ (cox h)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 4.00 18% 4.50 8.98  
PROMISSIO 7 8 86 7   610 514½ (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 6.00 5% 19.00 2.45  
SHARP SHOT 4 1 3 2½   35 615 (cox h)PEDROZA MARCELINO 119 6.00 33% 2.00 7.75  
POKER RUN 2 3 1½ 1½   5 718¼ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 9.64  
MCQUEEN 6 7 75 6   710 819¾ (pletcher to)TORRES A 119 5.00 8.49  
SCR  HURACAN XANDER               (zanelli dante)CHUAN MARTIN 119 15.00    
SCR  PENROD               (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 119 10.00    
 
CD-8   11/04/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:35
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:124 1:382   1:45   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  MAKE THE BOYS WINK 10 6 6 53 3 12 12 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 3.73  
WHENTHEDAWNBREAKS 5 5 53 7 8 5 22 (cox h)TORRES A 121 4.50 29% 2.40 3.17 P
WINGS LIKE EAGLES 6 9 85 9 10 8 33 (mott i)ACHARD ALEX 121 5.00 6% 15.10 7.82 S
12  BE MY SUNSHINE 11 2 2 2½ 1½ 22 43 (joseph saff)LEPAROUX R 118 3.50 39% 1.50 3.36  
SWEET ALYSSA 7 11 10 10 6 44 5 (pessin neil )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 30.00 55.05  
BEAUTIFULNAVIGATOR (IRE) 2 8 12 11 11 7 6 (mcpeek g)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 12.75  
WORK OF FICTION 4 4 42 4 4 34 75 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 118 10.00 4.40  
13  HURRY UP HANNAH 12 12 9 8 9 10 8 (cowans d)MACHADO LUAN 120 15.00 17.93  
FACCIA BELLA 3 1 1 1½ 2½ 6 9 (claire alexis)LANERIE J 118 10.00 48.59  
10  SPICY ITALIAN 9 10 7 6 7 9 1010¼ (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 30.00 72.82  
LADY COMMANDER 1 7 117 12 12 1111¼ 1115 (fires h)COURT K 121 30.00 77.57  
LEMON BOMB 8 3 3 3 5 1226¼ 1273¼ (kenneally eddi)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 15.00 5% 19.00 21.84  
SCR  BEST PERFORMER               (sharp joe)TORRES A 120 3.50    
SCR  EMPIRICAL VIEW               (divito jame)LEPAROUX R 118 8.00    
SCR  PRETTY PROVOCATIVE               (molloy thomas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 121 12.00    
SCR  STORM BAY               (devaux cherie)RAMOS D 118 8.00    
 
CD-9   11/04/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($100K) Purse ($141K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:15
See original race card.
:233 :472 1:114 1:364   1:43   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GASOLINE 4 3 43 4 32 1½ 1 (pletcher to)TORRES A 123 6.00 5% 19.00 6.96 W
GIANT GAME 5 1 21 22 2nk 2½ 2 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 121 2.50 26% 2.90 2.54 P
WAR CAMPAIGN 2 4 6 55 6 4 3 (sims a)LANERIE J 121 5.00 22% 3.50 3.13 S
DECISION MAKER 7 8 810½ 8 78 6 49 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 12.00 14.96  
BIG BLUE LINE 3 6 76 67 54 55 5 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 23% 3.40 4.31  
CONFIDENCE GAME 1 2 11 12 1nk 3 610¼ (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5.34  
WARRIOR JOHNY 6 7 32 3 4 77 722½ (bauer phili)LEPAROUX R 121 3.50 6.46  
10  TWO BIRDS 8 5 5 7 828 8100 8100 (hiles a)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 47.17  
SCR  KOOLHAUS               (lobo h)RAMOS D 121 20.00    
SCR  REGULAR GUY               (catalano m)MACHADO LUAN 121 20.00    
 
CD-10   11/04/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Bet Purse ($300K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:00
See original race card.
:214 :444 :57     1:091   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TEJANO TWIST 1 9 9 8   3 1 (hartman chris)LANDEROS CHRIS 123 2.50 26% 2.90 4.68 W
MILES AHEAD 7 7 6 5   4 2 (mcgee paul)TALAMO JOSEPH 121 6.00 9% 10.50 5.33 P
BANGO 8 5 5 31   11 3 (foley greg)PEDROZA MARCELINO 125 1.20 33% 2.10 0.67 S
NECKER ISLAND 2 6 7 7   52 4 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 8.00 11.08  
SIR ALFRED JAMES 6 1 1½ 1½   21 5 (ginter raym)HERNANDEZ J 121 12.00 7% 13.80 16.96  
MANNY WAH 3 8 8 98   9 6 (catalano m)LANERIE J 121 10.00 12.67  
EMPIRE OF GOLD 5 2 4 42   63 711¼ (eoff terry)ERAMIA E 121 20.00 24.31  
EXXEL 4 4 3 63   76 813½ (lund valori)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 20.00 72.16  
AWESOME AARON 9 3 2½ 2½   8 914¾ (green troy)MORALES EDGAR 121 20.00 53.44  
 
CD-11   11/04/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 ALL PT- 7:37
See original race card.
:241 :504 1:161 1:28   1:401   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
EDGARTOWN 6 1 2 2 2nk 1nk 1 (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 2.00 69% 0.50 1.36 W
SURF CITY 8 4 44 43 3.2 2nk 2 (oliver victoria)CANNON DECLAN 119 12.00 6.50  
12  DASHMAN 11 6 55 5 4 32 3 (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 119 6.00 3.46 S
10  DROBNY 9 3 1 1 1nk 4 4 (hartman chris)LANERIE J 119 8.00 19.22 DH
POLAR BEAR PLUNGE 5 5 7 6 6 56 4 (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 10.83 DH
MONEYSHOT 2 2 34 33 5 6 611¼ (puhich mike)ELLIOTT JANE 119 20.00 36.60  
BRITISH SEA 3 8 8 8 8 811¼ 715 (maker j)GRAHAM J 119 5.00 7% 13.50 9.67  
TIGGEROO 7 11 10 9 1010¼ 911¼ 815¼ (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 12.00 5% 19.00 60.35  
EVENING NEWS 4 7 6 7 7 7 915¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 12.00 27.39  
11  UNION RUN 10 9 9 10 9 1011¾ 1015¾ (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 20.00 43.70  
THE LOOK FACTOR 1 10 1111¼ 1111¼ 1113¼ 1118¼ 1128½ (devaux cherie)RAMOS D 119 6.00 8.67  
SCR  BLACK DIAMOND               (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 6.00    
SCR  GENERAL ISSUE (FR)               (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 20.00    
SCR  SHARON'S PRINCE               (granitz a)DE CRUZ 119 20.00    
SCR  ST. ARMANDS KEY               (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 2.50    
SCR  WHO'S THE KING               (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.