Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Thursday - September 21, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (2/3/9/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 1 $4.62 $4.62  
CD-2   Win (5/4/6/9) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $4.66 $4.66  
CD-3   Win (6/9/10/1/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 0 $66.60  
CD-4   Win (4/6/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 1 $5.12 $5.12  
CD-5   Win (9/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 9 1 1 $4.52 $4.52  
CD-6   Win (1/10/7/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 10 1 1 $17.04 $17.04 7.04
CD-7   Win (13/9/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 0 $12.82  
CD-8   Win (9/10/3/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $5.54 $5.54  

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($58K) 2 F PT- 5:00
See original race card.
:22 :452 :58     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SCRUPULOUS 2 6 42 32   3½ 1 (brisset rodo)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.00 47% 1.10 1.31 W
END OF INNOCENCE 7 3 2½ 2½   2nk 2 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00 5.84  
WHATTA WORLD 3 2 1½ 1½   1nk 3 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 2.50 24% 3.20 3.48 S
INTERCEPTION 5 1 3 43   44 4 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 22.62  
BETTE DAVIS 1 9 9 89   56 512 (tomlinson michae)ASHTON GAVIN 119 15.00 21.66  
NO VIOLENCE 9 7 74 7   8 618 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 5.00 8% 12.10 4.12  
LOVEYA LOVEYA MORE 4 5 6 6   6 718¾ (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 8.00 5% 19.00 13.48  
HUSH IT HONEY 6 4 52 54   77 820 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 32.98  
SUMMER DANCE 8 8 8 910   910½ 922¼ (hamilton sara)PETERSON FERRIN 119 10.00 30.45  
 
CD-2   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 ALL PT- 5:29
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:113 1:244   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ASTRONOMICO 5 1 11 1 13 1 1 (gutierrez f)TORRES A 119 2.00 44% 1.30 1.33 W
WAUHATCHIE 1 2 8 7 7 3 2 (ennis john)GILLIGAN JACK 119 15.00 42.87  
TIZ MY HERO 6 6 53 4 23 2 3 (vance d)LANERIE J 119 5.00 8% 11.00 7.13 S
MONEYSHOT 7 7 3 3 34 47 412¼ (puhich mike)CANNON DECLAN 119 5.00 4.20  
HOPE JOE'S RIGHT 3 8 7 8 6 69 513½ (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 6.00 7.59  
SKYPASS 4 4 21 2 44 5 614 (gorham m)MACHADO LUAN 119 6.00 26% 2.80 5.51  
LEAD FOOT 8 5 4 6 5 710 717½ (hamilton sarah)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 5% 19.00 6.03  
DON'T STOP 2 3 6 5 8 817 835¾ (simms jr)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 28.94  
SCR  SPIN THE BOULEVARD               (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 119 8.00    
 
CD-3   09/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:23 :462 1:11     1:241   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CANDY LANDY 1 3 1½ 1nk   1nk 1¾ (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 6.00 5% 18.30 7.87 DQ↓9
FLOORED 2 8 4 4   3 2¾ (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 12.00 32.30  
WEST OMAHA 5 5 85 8   65 3¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 3.92  
10  MUGEN 9 1 3½ 3½   2nk 4 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 22% 3.60 2.13 S
CLASS ACT 7 10 98 9   7 5 (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 119 10.00 5% 19.00 19.50  
AUSTIN TRAFFIC 4 7 63 7   4 65 (mott i)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00 46.20  
FUNDAMENTALLY 8 9 52 5   86 710½ (brown chad )TORRES A 119 5.00 25% 3.00 4.68  
CONTROLLED TEMPER 6 2 2½ 2nk   54 810¾ (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 3.50 27% 2.60 3.05  
11  LITTLE MISS PRISS 10 4 7 63   98 917½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 30.11  
BABE IN THE WOODS 3 6 10100 10100   10100 10100 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 20.00 42.81  
SCR  CORKAGE FEE               (mccarthy micha)TORRES A 114 20.00    
 
CD-4   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP M/F PT- 6:27
See original race card.
:241 :492 1:141 1:381   1:443   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
AIN'T BROKE 5 7 63 6 6 3 1hd (calhoun wil)TORRES A 122 2.50 31% 2.20 1.56 W
THESTRAL 7 5 4 4 3 1nk 2hd (amoss thomas)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 4.92  
SANDRA D 2 2 11 1½ 11 2nk 32 (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 118 8.00 14.27  
SUCH SOUNDS 1 1 3 3 42 43 4 (bauer a)GARCIA MARTIN 122 4.00 5.74  
MYTOWN MYRULES 4 3 21 2½ 21 6 511¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00 41% 1.50 2.99  
SAD CAFE 3 6 5 52 5 5 613½ (drury jr)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00 6.15  
STEEL RACER 6 4 74 73 7 712½ 725 (medina rober)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 19.02  
SCR  I FEEL THE NEED               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 6.00    
 
CD-5   09/21/2023 4620ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 6:56
See original race card.
:232 :474 1:113     1:233   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GIN GIN 9 2 11 1nk   1nk 1 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 3.00 53% 0.90 1.26 W
12  CARARRA 12 1 21 2nk   2nk 2 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 6.00 10.73  
AMERICA'S VOW 6 3 31 4   32 3 (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 20.00 30.63  
PERFECT SHOT 4 7 73 6   44 4 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.00 26% 2.90 4.99  
FLIGHT TO PARIS 8 12 10 8   6 5 (arnold geor)TORRES A 119 8.00 8.68  
11  PLATINUM MINIT 11 4 4 5   5 6 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 8.00 12.17  
DAZZLIN' DICTATOR 2 11 12 11   9 711¼ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00 5% 19.00 20.71  
NANDINA 7 8 95 9   8 811¼ (medina robe)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00 64.59  
10  MONTCLAIR ROAD 10 5 52 3½   7 912¾ (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 12.69  
AMY Z 3 6 6 7   10 1014 (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 119 8.00 14.93  
MAGIC GATHERING 5 9 8 10   1110¾ 1115¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 10.00 11.02  
MISS HARMONIC 1 10 11 12   1213¾ 1219¼ (forster t)LANERIE J 119 15.00 35.60  
 
CD-6   09/21/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 7:25
See original race card.
:214 :452 :571     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  HIGH CLASS 10 5 3½ 1nk   1 1¼ (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 4.00 19% 4.20 7.52 W
11  THE GREAT MAYBE 11 6 2½ 3½   2 2¼ (devaux cheri)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 4.50 3.87  
HUNTRESS FOR HIRE 1 9 7 5   33 3¾ (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 118 3.50 32% 2.10 2.57 S
ERVADEAN 2 8 6 42   4 4 (stewart dall)CORRALES GERARDO 118 20.00 16.43  
PISTOL 3 2 41 6   5 5 (van th)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.50 5% 17.90 7.85  
LITTLE MOMBO 8 4 1½ 2nk   65 6 (bauer philip)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 8.00 7% 13.30 8.04  
SECRET STATEMENT 6 7 8 8   77 7 (baker james)LEPAROUX R 118 20.00 12.94  
CANCEL THIS 7 3 5 7   8 8 (stidham mich)HERNANDEZ J 121 6.00 9% 10.30 12.98  
IN COLOR 5 10 9 9   9 9 (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 16.38  
TEN RINGS 4 11 11 10   1011¾ 1013½ (engler jeff)LANERIE J 121 20.00 44.32  
12  NEED SOME MONEY 12 1 10 11   1112¾ 1114½ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 15.00 10.51  
VARMLANDER 9 12 12 1216¼   1222¾ 1235¾ (sharp joe)GRAHAM J 118 20.00 49.22  
SCR  LAKESIDE MUSIC               (spicer t)LEBRON VICTOR 118 20.00    
 
CD-7   09/21/2023 5610ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($80K) Purse ($134K) 3UP ALL PT- 7:54
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:112 1:363   1:43   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
GASOLINE 6 4 42 5 3 31 1¼ (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 5.41  
DECISION MAKER 3 11 10 10 8 52 2¼ (van thomas)BEJARANO R 122 4.50 11.83 P
SANTOS DUMONT 2 3 11 11 1 11 3¾ (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 5% 19.00 17.09 S
13  SPEED BIAS 11 9 5 32 42 4 4¾ (moquett rona)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.50 53% 0.90 1.66  
ETHICAL JUDGEMENT 4 2 32 42 2 21 5 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 122 10.00 15.72  
MASQUEPARADE 8 10 8 9 6 6 65 (stall m)MACHADO LUAN 122 5.00 25% 3.00 8.42  
MR. BIG NEWS 1 1 11 11 10 9 7 (calhoun william )SAEZ GABRIEL 122 20.00 38.02  
11  GALT 10 8 6 6 9 106 8 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 122 6.00 9.47  
10  KING'S OVATION 9 5 21 21 5 7 9 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 8.05  
GROUP EIGHTEEN 7 6 7 8 7 8 108 (williamson bri)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00 37.81  
PROMISE KEEPER 5 7 9 7 1110¼ 118 1111½ (stewart dallas)GEROUX FLORENT 122 4.00 6.99  
SCR  PROTONIC POWER               (hernandez armando)EMIGH A 122 30.00    
SCR  ROMAN CENTURIAN               (hamilton sarah)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 12.00    
 
CD-8   09/21/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 8:23
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:102 1:223   1:343   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MO FIGHT 2 1 3 42 4¾ 1 1 (casse norm)SANTANA JR 120 3.00 9% 9.70 1.77 W
SPIELMAN 4 9 9 9 6 2 2 (desormeaux keith)GRAHAM J 120 15.00 5% 19.00 6.38 P
SINGLE DOT YAHT 6 4 7 85 5 44 3 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 120 8.00 6.61  
HERO'S MEDAL 5 8 8 6 7 7 412 (stall m)TORRES A 115 8.00 6.45  
12  ARCHIE THE GIZA 9 7 53 5 1nk 3 513 (medina robe)TORRES A 124 15.00 31.08  
CONCERTED 7 5 21 2 3½ 5 614¾ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 124 3.50 48% 1.10 4.74  
SHOWDOWN KING 3 3 4 32 2nk 6 715 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 120 12.00 10.21  
DESERT WOLF 1 2 64 74 9 810½ 821 (castillo richar)GARCIA MARTIN 120 20.00 39.14  
10  CREATE TROUBLE 8 6 11 1 8 913½ 931¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 5.00 15% 5.80 6.55  
SCR  BUBBA CAN DANCE               (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 120 30.00    
SCR  MO SCAT               (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 120 20.00    
SCR  PERFECT UPSTART               (barrett roddina )ELLIOTT JANE 120 20.00    
SCR  SAHALAT               (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 124 6.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.