Handicappers' Race Results

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Churchill Downs
Saturday - September 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

CD-1   Win (10/1/8) 3 $2.00 $6.00 12 1 0 $17.90  
CD-2   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $11.98 $11.98 5.98
CD-3   Win (1/10/13/7) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 0 $35.42  
CD-4   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $4.32 $4.32  
CD-5   Win (6/2/8/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $7.14 $7.14  
CD-6   Win (2/3) 2 $2.00 $4.00 1 1 0 $8.74  
CD-7   Win (7/9/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 6 1 0 $4.40  
CD-8   Win (3/7/10/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 10 1 1 $13.16 $13.16 5.16
CD-9   Win (8/3/9/1) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $26.96  
CD-10   Win (4/10/7/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 4 1 1 $5.74 $5.74  
CD-11   Win (10/13/11/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 13 1 1 $10.76 $10.76 2.76

Simulator Race results

 
CD-1   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($92K) 2 F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:22 :454 :58     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
12  ALMOND FUDGE 11 1 11 12   14 1 (gutierrez fa)CORRALES GERARDO 119 6.00 7.95  
MYSIDEHUSTLE 5 9 9 87   58 2 (hiles rick)GRAHAM J 119 20.00 31.20  
KRICKLE 8 2 4 44   36 3 (holsapple hutch)HEARD TYLER 119 6.00 11.43 S
CLASSY'N CONNECTED 6 3 7 55   4 4 (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 10.10  
11  PRINCESS IS OLIVIA 10 6 3 22   24 5 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 10.77  
QUEEN LEXI 7 8 8 9   69 6 (short thom)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00 5% 19.00 54.66  
10  ACCOMMODATE EVA 9 4 21 3   7 715 (stewart dalla)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 5.00 44% 1.30 2.38  
FROSTY TALE 2 10 10 1011   1013½ 817¾ (garcia genaro)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 39.40  
LA SCALONETA 4 5 6 76   912 919½ (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 8.00 3.67  
MISS CLAUDETTE 3 11 11 1112½   1115½ 1021 (morse l)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00 17.80  
BUTTERFLY QUEEN 1 7 5 65   811 1121¾ (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 32% 2.10 3.77  
SCR  MO FOR US               (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 4.50    
 
CD-2   09/16/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:234 :481 1:13 1:382   1:504   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CLYDE'S GOT A GUN 4 4 6 6 63 2 1 (pitts helen)MOJICA O 120 3.50 26% 2.80 4.99 W
FAYETTE SPIRIT 3 1 2nk 1nk 1½ 1 2 (medina robe)TORRES A 120 2.50 42% 1.40 1.27 P
CAIRO'S GHOST 6 5 4 5 5 47 38 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 120 3.00 6% 16.00 3.19 S
REAL NAUGHTY 7 3 1nk 2nk 2½ 3 4 (hiles a)GRAHAM J 120 4.00 7.22  
TIZ THE COAST 1 2 3.2 32 3 5 514½ (ortiz john)SANTANA JR 120 15.00 13.88  
BIG SKIPPY 5 6 5 4 42 6 617¼ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 120 6.00 6.33  
TEXAS PRIDE 2 7 7 711¼ 713 724½ 748 (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 120 10.00 22.40  
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA               (medina robe)TORRES A 124 4.00    
SCR  SINGLE DOT YAHT               (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 120 2.00    
 
CD-3   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:214 :46 :583     1:113   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
OUR KEEPSAKE 6 1 1nk 1½   13 1 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 114 20.00 16.71  
SWEET VIOLET 4 4 86 75   6 2 (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 20.00 32.96  
PLAGNE CHAMPAGNE 2 2 5 32   34 35 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 6.00 3.54  
MISCHIEVOUSNESS 3 9 4 42   23 45 (lovell mich)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 7.25  
CLEOPATRA SELENE 7 5 7 63   5 58 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 119 12.00 6% 16.80 24.09  
13  PIN UP BETTY 9 7 31 2½   4 610¾ (maker michael )GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 17% 5.00 8.86  
MYSTICAL CHANT 1 3 2nk 5   7 715 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 26% 2.90 4.62  
10  LIFE ADVICE 8 6 6 8   8 817¾ (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.00 17% 5.00 1.30  
ADRASTEIA 5 8 9 910½   917½ 935 (bogle fergus)GARCIA MARTIN 119 20.00 30.49  
SCR  ALMOSTGONE ROCKET               (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.50    
SCR  AUSTIN TRAFFIC               (mott i)ELLIOTT JANE 119 12.00    
SCR  I AM BEAUTIFUL               (flint s)VELAZQUEZ R 119 20.00    
SCR  MANAGING MISCHIEF               (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.50    
SCR  NANDINA               (medina robe)TORRES A 119 20.00    
SCR  QUEEN LEXI               (short thom)RODRIGUEZ A 119 20.00    
SCR  RENFREW               (sharp joe)TORRES A 119 8.00    
 
CD-4   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Louisville Thoroughbred Societ Purse ($300K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:213 :444 :563     1:09   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BANGO 4 2 3½ 1½   1½ 1nk (foley greg)GAFFALIONE TYLER 123 1.00 15% 5.70 1.16 W
GULFSTREAM WAY 5 1 42 2½   2½ 2nk (casse norm)SANTANA JR 121 6.00 5.30  
NECKER ISLAND 6 5 53 5   4 3 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 123 8.00 7% 12.70 11.14 S
AWESOME AARON 2 4 2½ 3½   32 46 (green troy)BEJARANO R 121 30.00 31.80  
BAYTOWN BEAR 1 6 6 6   6 5 (mcentee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 121 30.00 37.24  
STROBE 3 3 1½ 4¾   56 621¼ (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 121 1.20 55% 0.80 1.20  
 
CD-5   09/16/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($75K) Purse ($72K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:224 :461 1:103     1:231   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UNDERHILL'S TAB 6 1 4 3   1 1 (stall alber)TORRES A 121 3.50 55% 0.80 2.57 W
ATTACHE 4 2 32 5   5 2 (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 118 8.00 5% 19.00 11.99 P
FUNNY UNCLE 7 6 8 8   3 3 (vance d)LANERIE J 118 12.00 13.20  
MAGNIFICENT MILE 8 5 53 42   4 4 (contreras c)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 118 8.00 10% 8.70 13.98  
DEBATE 2 8 6 6   6 5 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50 11% 8.20 3.04  
QUICK HAMMER 1 4 1½ 1nk   2 67 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 1.91  
STAND FOR FREEDOM 5 3 75 7   8 715¼ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 121 10.00 10.85  
GUNNER BAY 3 7 2½ 2nk   7 816½ (margolis stephen)ELLIOTT JANE 118 10.00 21.70  
 
CD-6   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Open Mind Purse ($300K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:22 :451 :57     1:092   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
YUUGIRI 1 2 31 32   2 13 (brisset rodolphe)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 3.00 3.37  
FIRE ON TIME 3 3 11 1   1 23 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 120 3.50 16% 5.40 7.38 P
WICKED HALO 2 5 5 43   4 3 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 120 0.60 55% 0.80 0.39 S
MORE THAN VOWS 4 4 21 2   34 4 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 120 12.00 12.31  
SHARP HERO 5 1 42 54   5 511½ (ross bradle)LEPAROUX R 120 12.00 12.53  
SCR  TEN RINGS               (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 120 30.00    
 
CD-7   09/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC12 FAST Pocahontas Purse ($300K) 2 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:224 :453 1:101 1:231   1:362   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
V V'S DREAM 3 5 4 33 31 1 1 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.50 1.20  
YOUALMOSTHADME 4 4 2nk 2½ 2½ 33 2 (cox h)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 24% 3.20 2.48 P
HOT BEACH 6 2 1nk 1½ 1½ 2 3 (lynch a)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 3.50 23% 3.40 3.53 S
COURBE 5 6 3 54 4 4 415 (pletcher a)BEJARANO R 122 10.00 7.71  
RIPERTON 1 3 6 6 67 59 517 (lobo paulo )TORRES A 122 12.00 17% 4.90 9.99  
REGAL RUMOR 2 1 5 43 5 6 621½ (catalano way)MICHEL MICKAELLE 122 12.00 21.35  
SCR  EMPIRE ISLAND               (casse norm)SANTANA JR 122 5.00    
SCR  PEIGNOIR               (brisset rodolphe)MACHADO LUAN 122 20.00    
SCR  RAINING SUGAR               (mott riley)GRAHAM J 122 20.00    
 
CD-8   09/16/2023 5280ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($127K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:243 :491 1:14 1:26   1:38   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  WATCH THIS BIRDIE 9 4 8 7 6 2½ 1 (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 6.00 13% 6.60 5.58 W
HAY STACK 6 6 2½ 2nk 11 1½ 2 (beckman whitwo)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 3.50 24% 3.20 3.92 P
ALWAYS AT EASE 5 8 7 6 53 3 3 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 10.00 10.07  
STORM BAY 2 1 3 4 4 4 4 (devaux cher)TORRES A 118 12.00 5% 19.00 9.41  
MUSICAL SCORE 3 2 1½ 1nk 21 6 53 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 118 4.00 39% 1.60 2.67  
SPICY ITALIAN 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 (catalano way)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00 22.40  
GRACE DARLING (IRE) 4 5 42 32 3 5 77 (lynch brian )GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 2.48  
ZAPPLE 7 3 5 5 8 8 87 (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 118 12.00 21.31  
ZIGGZAPPA 1 7 6 8 9 9 911¾ (forster t)GRAHAM J 122 30.00 40.07  
SCR  AMBER CASCADE               (devaux cher)TORRES A 118 4.00    
SCR  CALLIE'S PASSION               (rutledge lance)GILLIGAN JACK 118 20.00    
SCR  EMPIRICAL VIEW               (divito jame)LEPAROUX R 118 4.50    
SCR  MYTOWN MYRULES               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 3.00    
SCR  STAR WISHER               (granitz ant)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 10.00    
SCR  VARMLANDER               (sharp joe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 3.50    
 
CD-9   09/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC12 FAST Iroquois Purse ($300K) 2 ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:222 :443 1:101 1:234   1:371   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WEST SARATOGA 2 1 44 46 3 11 1 (demeritte larry)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 12.48  
RISK IT 7 2 32 3 2 31 2 (asmussen ste)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 2.00 33% 2.00 1.35 P
LIBERAL ARTS 1 5 66 6 66 6 32 (medina robe)TORRES A 122 20.00 5% 19.00 9.92 S
SEIZE THE GREY 6 6 5 5 5 43 4 (lukas wayne)TORRES A 122 10.00 4.96  
EDIFIED 4 8 811 812¼ 7 54 56 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 122 8.00 11.30  
PATRIOT SPIRIT 8 4 1 14 1 21 67 (campbell michael)CASTANON L 122 3.50 17% 4.80 3.42  
UNION ROLL 3 7 711 712 811 810½ 710¼ (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 122 5.00 24% 3.20 8.19  
MARKET STREET 5 3 2 24 45 710 825½ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 8.00 24.86  
SCR  GETTYSBURG ADDRESS               (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 12.00    
 
CD-10   09/16/2023 5610ft DIRT RC12 FAST Locust Grove Purse ($400K) 3UP M/F PT- 5:26
See original race card.
:242 :481 1:114 1:36   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SEARCH RESULTS 4 2 1½ 1½ 1nk 13 1 (brown c)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 3.00 40% 1.50 1.87 W
HIDDEN CONNECTION 6 1 2½ 2½ 2nk 23 2 (calhoun wil)TORRES A 121 8.00 8.03  
MISTY VEIL 5 4 4 42 3 3 3 (maker j)GRAHAM J 121 15.00 38.55  
PAULINE'S PEARL 2 7 3 32 44 47 4 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 125 5.00 9.03  
LE DA VIDA (CHI) 3 3 7 95 7 79 510¼ (correas ign)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 121 3.50 5% 17.70 3.10  
A MO REAY 7 8 94 7 6 5 610¾ (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 5.00 13% 6.90 3.30  
10  FALCONET 9 6 83 8 8 811 713¼ (pletcher tod)CORRALES GERARDO 121 6.00 21% 3.80 7.76  
SOUL OF AN ANGEL 1 9 6 5 55 69 813¼ (james gerald)WILLIAMS AJHARI 121 20.00 63.48  
FANNIE AND FREDDIE 8 5 5 6 9 915 925 (stall m)LANERIE J 121 30.00 41.45  
SCR  MUSIC STREET               (beckman whitw)CANNON DECLAN 121 30.00    
SCR  ROYAL TAKE CHARGE               (stall albert )GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 15.00    
 
CD-11   09/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($120K) 2 F PT- 5:58
See original race card.
:213 :453 :58     1:111   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
13  WEST SUNSET 11 7 107 8   44 1¼ (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.00 21% 3.70 4.38 W
SWEET GAL OF MINE 6 1 32 1½   11 2¼ (mccarthy micha)TORRES A 114 8.00 8.46  
BANG BANG FURY 7 4 5 32   3 3¼ (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 13.62  
IRINA'S CHARM 2 10 8 56   5 42 (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 8.00 12.61  
INTRICATE 1 9 7 7   65 5 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 5.00 4.55  
CLEAR VOICE 3 3 11 2½   21 6 (devaux cher)TORRES A 119 10.00 5% 19.00 4.17  
11  HIGH SHOT 9 11 1110 1110¾   89 7 (simms jr)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 21% 3.90 19.37  
10  REGULATORY RISK 8 6 64 6   7 810 (brown c)GEROUX FLORENT 119 2.00 37% 1.70 3.67  
12  LILMS CONSTITUTION 10 2 96 9   1010½ 911¾ (barkley jason)GRAHAM J 119 15.00 18.75  
ALDORA 4 5 42 1010¼   1111½ 1015½ (catalano way)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 8.00 12.73  
CABERNEIGH 5 8 21 44   9 1129¼ (barker w)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00 50.74  
SCR  BABY AVERY               (vance d)LANERIE J 119 20.00    
SCR  DAZZLIN' DICTATOR               (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 15.00    
SCR  IDALOU               (schultz lin)LEPAROUX R 119 8.00    
SCR  MIA MARCELA               (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 6.00    
SCR  RUNWAY LIGHTS               (arnold george )GEROUX FLORENT 119 12.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.