Handicappers' Race Results

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 23, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (1/3/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00 5 1 1 $25.58 $25.58 19.58
ELP-2   Win (3/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $3.52 $3.52  
ELP-3   Win (9/4/5/3/2) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 1 $11.68 $11.68 1.68
ELP-4   Win (1/9/7/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $4.04 $4.04  
ELP-5   Win (3/1/5/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 3 1 1 $22.92 $22.92 14.92
ELP-6   Win (7/3/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 7 1 1 $2.42 $2.42  
ELP-7   Win (6/5/1/3/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 6 1 1 $5.20 $5.20  
ELP-8   Win (3/5/7/4/6) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $9.74 $9.74  
ELP-9   Win (9/4/3/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $10.94 $10.94 0.94

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($50K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
See original race card.
:234 :471 1:124 1:254   1:392   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STEEL RACER 5 5 31 31 2nk 1nk 1 (medina rober)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 19% 4.20 11.79 W
OVERINDULGENCE 2 1 1½ 1nk 1nk 2nk 2 (casse w)CHUAN MARTIN 118 10.00 7.13  
ABBREVIATION 3 4 53 5 42 35 3 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 118 4.00 20% 3.90 3.61 S
EVIE'S ENCORE 4 3 2½ 2nk 31 4 411¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 118 6.00 5.44  
SHE'S MAGIC 1 2 4 4 54 5 513½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 118 1.80 26% 2.80 0.56  
SCR  NO GUILT               (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 2.00    
 
ELP-2   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($40K) Purse ($40K) 3UP M/F PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:23 :461 1:11 1:242   1:384   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MERCY WARREN 3 1 1½ 1 1nk 1 1 (devaux cheri)HERNANDEZ J 122 2.00 38% 1.70 0.76 W
GUANA CAY 2 5 4 42 34 3 2 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 3.00 2.79  
MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT 5 4 33 32 2nk 2 3 (cano m)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 16% 5.40 7.32 S
LA TOURISTA 1 3 510½ 57 5 4 49 (vasquez sr)BEJARANO R 122 8.00 7.73  
TOO PRETTY 4 2 2½ 2 4 59 515¼ (peitz c)TORRES A 122 4.50 16% 5.10 5.75  
SCR  MUSIC AMORE               (vasquez german )CANNON DECLAN 122 6.00    
SCR  WATERS OF MEROM               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 122 8.00    
 
ELP-3   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:251 :502 1:153 1:273   1:391   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
FEDERALISM 5 6 75 64 6 1nk 1 (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 22% 3.50 4.84 W
PHAROAH'S WINE 2 1 1½ 11 1nk 2nk 2 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 10.00 5% 19.00 1.49 P
RACONTEUSE 6 3 2½ 21 2nk 31 3 (wilkes r)BEJARANO R 119 6.00 4.76  
YOU'RE KITTEN ME 9 5 53 5 5 4 4 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 119 3.00 33% 2.00 6.73  
GOLD DEL MAR 4 2 64 7 73 5 5 (bahena ism)RODRIGUEZ A 114 5.00 24% 3.20 8.83  
MAYBE MAGIC 1 8 3 32 4 6 68 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 12.00 19.29  
TIANMA 8 4 42 4 3.2 7 78 (o'neill doug)MACHADO LUAN 119 15.00 14.72  
PURE CONNECTION 7 7 10 9 95 8 8 (asmussen st)TORRES A 119 12.00 19.40  
10  PANTHERA 10 10 87 87 85 9 9 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 20.28  
SCARE 3 9 97 10 1013 1022¼ 1046¾ (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 5% 19.00 36.85  
 
ELP-4   07/23/2023 3630ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:224 :454 :583     1:052   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BALTA 1 2 11 1   1 1 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 45% 1.20 1.02 W
PONCE DE LEON 8 6 43 3   3 2 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 2.00 31% 2.30 1.50 P
FLOTATION STATION 6 1 21 2   2 33 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 8.00 5% 19.00 20.54 S
STOKE THE FIRE 3 4 66 610½   511¾ 411¾ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 5.00 8.61  
ONE SHARP TIZ 7 3 32 45   411½ 511¾ (engler jef)RODRIGUEZ A 114 12.00 48.20  
GREERS FERRY 2 8 78 711½   714¼ 615½ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 8.00 5% 19.00 30.94  
SABRES 4 5 56 5   613¾ 716½ (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 116 15.00 9.78  
TIZZY INDY 5 7 8 812   819¼ 828½ (desormeaux keit)COHEN DAVID 119 15.00 39.43  
SCR  HENRO               (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 20.00    
 
ELP-5   07/23/2023 5280ft TURF RC9 FIRM Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:244 1:12 1:242     1:36   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
IDRATHERBEBLESSED 3 2 4 44 5 11 12 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 51% 1.00 10.46 W
ARABIAN PRINCE 1 8 8 88 74 52 22 (barnett bobby)GUTIERREZ REYLU 123 3.00 16% 5.40 1.06 P
MOON CAT 2 1 7 66 8 63 3 (davis christoph)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 7.51  
TIZ OF THEE 5 5 56 5 3 42 4 (hancock dana)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 10.00 11% 7.80 9.26  
ROYAL VICKY 8 4 1 13 11 21 5 (lobo h)RAMOS D 118 6.00 7.08 DQ↓7
DEEP STATE 4 6 6 76 6 7 6 (combs bentley)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 3.50 7.48  
THREE ON THE TREE 6 7 2 23 21 3 7 (lovell mich)TORRES A 118 10.00 5% 19.00 6.25  
JUDO 7 3 34 3 42 8 817 (blair jordan)MORALES EDGAR 118 8.00 20.58  
SCR  SECRET POCKET               (peitz c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 5.00    
 
ELP-6   07/23/2023 3960ft DIRT RC11 FAST Twin Bridges Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :46 :58     1:102   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WICKED HALO 5 1 3 21   2nk 1 (asmussen st)TORRES A 124 1.00 54% 0.90 0.21 W
NON VIOLENCE 4 3 2½ 11   1nk 2 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 126 8.00 5.78  
LAST LEAF 2 4 4 4   3.2 3 (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 122 3.00 16% 5.40 6.80 S
DEALING JUSTICE 3 2 1½ 32   4 4 (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 122 15.00 24.97  
TAP DANCE FEVER 1 5 54 5   5 5 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 8.00 8% 12.10 12.94  
SCR  GUNNING               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 126 6.00    
SCR  SPEEDOMETER               (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 15.00    
 
ELP-7   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:243 :492 1:124 1:372   1:494   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISREAD 6 6 33 34 34 22 1nk (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00 41% 1.50 1.60 W
FIDDLE 3 2 1 11 1½ 12 2nk (meah m)MACHADO LUAN 123 6.00 5% 17.30 5.71 P
LUCY'S CAKES FLY 8 8 65 67 67 34 3 (stuart she)RODRIGUEZ A 118 20.00 5% 19.00 21.77 S
THREE COINS 2 3 87 7 7 55 4 (hancock a)MORALES EDGAR 123 30.00 64.10  
UNSTABLE PRINCESS 9 9 9 911 9 67 5 (santamaria )TORRES A 118 20.00 18.61  
EXIT SOUL 5 4 2 21 2½ 45 6 (mccarthy w)GRAHAM J 123 3.00 18% 4.50 2.85  
MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 (faircloth aveo)CALLEJA ANDRES 113 30.00 57.21  
LOVED REIKO 4 5 5 55 5 78 88 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 123 5.00 7.61  
CLEVER JOKE 1 1 4 45 4 8 9 (catalano wa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 4.00 13% 6.40 4.63  
SCR  MAGIC BUBBLES               (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 4.50    
 
ELP-8   07/23/2023 5280ft DIRT RC3 FAST Alw Opt Clm ($50K) Purse ($78K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:234 :47 1:111 1:24   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PRESIDENTIAL 3 4 6 6 31 1nk 11 (asmussen st)TORRES A 122 3.00 32% 2.10 3.87 W
KING'S OVATION 8 5 21 2nk 4 4 21 (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 8.00 10.50  
ROMAN CENTURIAN 6 10 9 9 6 5 3 (hamilton sa)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 10.00 8% 11.00 5.72 S
DIGITAL 2 2 10 10 96 31 4 (hiles rick)LANERIE J 122 15.00 25.16  
12  DETERMINEDLY 11 7 5 4 11 2nk 5 (casse mark)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 6.25  
MAJOR FED 9 8 8 8 107 7 6 (foley greg)GRAHAM J 122 15.00 18.59  
ALLEGE 7 6 32 5 5 8 7 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 11% 7.90 7.16  
HEARTBREAKER 5 3 11 1nk 21 6 810¾ (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 126 6.00 11% 7.80 6.27  
10  O P FIRECRACKER 10 9 7 7 8 9 911¼ (medina robert)BESCHIZZA ADAM 124 25.00 59.87  
TIWANAKU 4 11 11 11 11 10 1012¼ (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 124 8.00 11% 8.00 3.25  
MR. THUNDERSTRUCK 1 1 42 3 74 11 1119½ (von donni)TALAMO JOSEPH 122 20.00 29.77  
SCR  LIFE IS HARD               (divito james)MURRILL MITCHELL 122 15.00    
 
ELP-9   07/23/2023 5940ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:23 :463 1:113 1:37   1:482   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
BABA VOSS 4 9 9 9 8 22 1½ (walsh p)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 22% 3.50 4.47 W
NOISES OFF 3 1 33 3 32 12 2½ (lobo paulo )TORRES A 118 5.00 18% 4.60 3.71 P
BRIGADE COMMANDER 2 3 7 5 6 4 39 (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00 9.06  
ROYAL SALUTE 5 10 1012¼ 1014¾ 9 7 410¾ (lynch a)GRAHAM J 118 6.00 5.04  
MY BOY TONY 9 8 8 8 53 5 510¾ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 25% 3.00 3.15  
12  ORBI ONE 12 6 2½ 2 2½ 3 611 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 14.03  
FIRST PLAYER 1 4 6 7 7 9 713¾ (howard j)MORALES EDGAR 118 25.00 78.03  
11  HOGSLAYERS R I P 11 7 1½ 1 1½ 6 814 (pessin neil )HERNANDEZ J 124 8.00 10% 9.00 8.73  
10  STORMIN MIDNIGHT 10 11 1114¾ 1118¾ 11 87 914 (oliver victoria)CHUAN MARTIN 118 20.00 5% 19.00 60.68  
GORDY'S LABEL 7 12 1216¾ 1219 12 10 1016¾ (stall m)LANERIE J 118 15.00 17.48  
UNWRAPPED 6 2 44 66 10 1215¼ 1128½ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 30.00 71.43  
SIR ROCK 8 5 54 4 42 1115¼ 1229¾ (mccarthy mic)CORRALES GERARDO 118 25.00 20.67  
SCR  ARCHIE THE GIZA               (medina robert)GARCIA MARTIN 124 6.00    
SCR  HONOR GOLD               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  QUALIFIED               (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00    
SCR  TESTIMONY TIME               (brumley william )MACHADO LUAN 124 50.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.