Handicappers' Race Results

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Saratoga
Saturday - July 22, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

SAR-1   Win (7/5/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $3.50 $3.50  
SAR-2   Win (7/4/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $4.70 $4.70  
SAR-3   Win (4/1/8/6) 4 $2.00 $8.00 2 1 0 $5.30  
SAR-4   Win (3/8/6/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00 8 1 1 $13.20 $13.20 5.20
SAR-5   Win (1/2/6/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $4.50 $4.50  
SAR-6   Win (2/4/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 3 1 1 $5.50 $5.50  
SAR-7   Win (6/5/3/10/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 5 1 1 $7.70 $7.70  
SAR-8   Win (1/7/4/8/3) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $27.60 $27.60 17.60
SAR-9   Win (2/4/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $4.90 $4.90  
SAR-10   Win (8/6/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00 8 1 1 $3.70 $3.70  
SAR-11   Win (1/6/4/11/10) 5 $2.00 $10.00 11 1 1 $23.20 $23.20 13.20

Simulator Race results

 
SAR-1   07/22/2023 5610ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 2 ALL PT- 1:10
See original race card.
:251 :51 1:161 1:402   1:463   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
NOTED 7 1 21 2½ 2nk 1nk 1½ (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 119 2.00 50% 1.00 0.75 W
SPIRIT PRINCE 2 2 32 3 4 3 2½ (clement christo)FRANCO MANUEL 119 6.00 5% 19.00 4.20 P
FORTUNE SELLER 3 3 11 1½ 1nk 2nk 32 (rice kevin)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.00 7.70  
ASK ISAAC 1 5 6 6 6 5 4 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 4.00 6.60  
NOBLE WAVE 4 4 4 4 31 6 5 (weaver george)LEZCANO JOSE 119 5.00 13.50  
UNCLE BO 5 6 56 5 5 4 6 (gargan danny)DAVIS DYLAN 119 8.00 5% 19.00 9.30  
BACK BAYOU 6 7 711 79 7 7 710½ (rodriguez rud)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 15.00 5% 19.00 48.25  
SCR  DETERMINISTIC               (clement christop)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 2.50    
SCR  DORNOCH               (gargan danny)ORTIZ JR 119 1.40    
 
SAR-2   07/22/2023 5940ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:42
See original race card.
:242 :483 1:124 1:373   1:503   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PADDINGTON 4 1 1 1 1½ 1 1 (rice linda)ORTIZ JR 120 1.80 30% 2.30 1.35 W
WHAT'S UP DOC 5 4 35 34 33 3 2 (cash l)TORRES A 120 3.50 31% 2.30 3.20 P
DEPUTY CONNECT 2 2 2 2 2½ 2 310 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 125 3.00 19% 4.40 1.35 S
HANG TIGHT 1 3 4 4 4 514 418 (romero jes)SANTANA JR 125 20.00 28.75  
CENTAVO 6 6 69 6 6 413 519¾ (chatterpaul naipa)DAVIS DYLAN 125 8.00    
INSPEIGHTOFTRAINER 3 5 57 55 5 616½ 624¼ (rice linda)LEZCANO JOSE 120 12.00 11.70  
SCR  ICE ROAD               (d'angelo f)ORTIZ JR 123 4.00    
 
SAR-3   07/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($88K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:16
See original race card.
:221 :453 :573     1:034   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SPOOKY LADY 1 1 11 11   11 1¼ (rodriguez r)CARMOUCHE K 124 4.00 1.65  
VOLEUSE 3 7 5 32   21 2¼ (clement christo)ORTIZ JR 124 4.00 36% 1.80 2.35 P
1A  CERRETTA 6 5 4 5   3 3 (bond ja)TORRES A 119 3.50 26% 2.80 2.60  
SHAMAN PRINCESS 7 4 6 64   54 4 (rodriguez rudy )FRANCO MANUEL 119 10.00 12% 7.20 9.00  
BUSSIA 4 3 21 21   43 5 (bond j)ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 3.50 2.60  
ADMIRE MY CROWN 5 2 32 4   66 611½ (handal raymond)DAVIS KATIE 124 15.00 5% 19.00 11.80  
LADY FORTUNA 2 6 78 711   714 720¾ (gyarmati l)DAVIS A 119 15.00 13.60  
SCR  BE BEST               (terranova p)RIDER TBA 119 3.50    
SCR  HEALDSBURG               (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 3.00    
SCR  STRICTLY TABOO               (clement christoph)DAVIS DYLAN 119 4.50    
 
SAR-4   07/22/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($45K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:46
See original race card.
:242 :48 1:124 1:254   1:394   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WINNING CONNECTION 7 3 33 31 1 13 1½ (reynolds patr)MCCARTHY TREVOR 120 5.00 14% 6.20 5.60 W
YONO 1 6 44 42 5 3 2½ (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 123 10.00 5% 19.00 7.40 P
BOYS CODE 4 4 65 5 32 23 3 (dixon lind)DAVIS A 120 20.00 25.75  
BREAK THE ICE 3 7 78 8 66 56 45 (hennig mark)DAVIS DYLAN 120 15.00 11.20  
HUSBAND MATERIAL 2 1 11 11 2 4 5 (toner j)ORTIZ JR 123 4.50 48% 1.10 1.75  
STRONG LIGHT 8 8 810½ 7 79 810 610½ (younghans will)TORRES A 123 20.00 27.50  
ACHILLES HEEL 6 5 5 6 89 7 713 (rodriguez rudy )FRANCO MANUEL 123 6.00 5.30  
INSPECTOR 5 2 21 21 4 6 815 (asmussen m)CARMOUCHE K 120 4.00 13% 6.90 2.95  
SCR  CHILENO               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 123 2.00    
 
SAR-5   07/22/2023 4620ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($149.5K) 3UP M/F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:223 :452 1:094     1:224   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
UNDERVALUED ASSET 1 4 33 33   1 1¾ (brown c)ORTIZ JR 120 2.00 41% 1.40 1.25 W
CUPID'S HEART 2 7 4 44   42 2¾ (levine bruce)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 4.00 21% 3.80 4.80 P
ZEITLOS 7 2 21 2½   2 3 (asmussen steve)GEROUX FLORENT 120 5.00 3.90  
HUNTRESS FOR HIRE 6 1 11 1½   3 4 (stall m)LEZCANO JOSE 120 3.00 16% 5.20 4.10  
DEAR LADY 3 6 55 5   5 5 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 120 5.00 8.20  
TO A T 5 3 6 6   68 612½ (noda orlando)FRANCO MANUEL 124 12.00 5% 19.00 19.10  
VIENNA CODE 4 5 711½ 711½   713 715¾ (williams a)DAVIS A 124 30.00 42.00  
SCR  MIA BEA STAR               (persaud randi)TORRES A 119 20.00    
 
SAR-6   07/22/2023 3630ft TURF RC12 GOOD Caress Purse ($200K) 4UP M/F PT- 3:52
See original race card.
:451 :562     1:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROSES FOR DEBRA 3 1 21 21   1½ 1 (clement christo)ORTIZ JR 120 1.80 17% 4.80 1.75 W
WAKANAKA (IRE) 5 3 42 3   3½ 2 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 8.00 4.80  
BUBBLE ROCK 2 2 11 11   2½ 3 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 124 2.00 37% 1.70 2.30 S
POPPY FLOWER 4 4 52 52   42 4 (mott i)LEZCANO JOSE 124 3.00 20% 4.00 6.60  
OUR FLASH DRIVE 1 5 3 4   5 53 (casse mark)DAVIS DYLAN 124 3.50 3.30  
SCR  BANK ON ANNA               (serpe m)LEZCANO JOSE 118 4.00    
 
SAR-7   07/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($136.5K) 2 ALL PT- 4:26
See original race card.
:221 :46 :583     1:114   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VALENTINE CANDY 5 1 11 1   1 1¾ (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 3.00 25% 3.00 2.85 W
PROTECTIVE 9 9 7 7   3 2¾ (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 119 8.00 6.80  
ANNOINTED 6 2 6 6   54 3 (pletcher a)LEZCANO JOSE 119 4.00 26% 2.80 6.90 S
GENERAL PARTNER 2 6 21 2   2 4 (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 4.50 7% 13.40 4.20  
DIVE BOMBER 7 3 52 34   4 53 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 5.00 2.95  
DANCING GROOM 4 4 8 8   6 6 (sano antonio)MCCARTHY TREVOR 119 30.00 5% 19.00 40.50  
SOCIETY MAN 3 8 914¼ 10   813¾ 716½ (gargan danny)FRANCO MANUEL 119 15.00 35.75  
DAILY GRIND 1 10 1014¾ 9   713½ 819¼ (lukas wayne)CARMOUCHE K 119 15.00 16.70  
WORLD FAIR 8 7 3 44   915¼ 921¾ (moquett ron)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00 9.70  
10  TRUCKER 10 5 4 55   1021¾ 1038½ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 119 15.00 5% 19.00 25.50  
SCR  ASCENDANCE               (russell brittan)FRANCO MANUEL 119 20.00    
SCR  HAMILTON'S WAY               (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 119 15.00    
 
SAR-8   07/22/2023 5610ft TURF RC3 GOOD Alw Opt Clm ($62.5K) Purse ($149.5K) 3 ALL PT- 5:02
See original race card.
:242 :49 1:124 1:37   1:43   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
TAKING CANDY 2 4 32 33 32 1½ 1hd (devaux cherie)LEZCANO JOSE 122 8.00 5% 19.00 12.80 W
SCRAMBLE 3 2 64 55 5 3 2hd (tagg barcla)LEPAROUX R 122 8.00 7% 13.00 14.70 P
MERCANTE 7 7 9 9 9 74 3¾ (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 122 10.00 5% 19.00 20.00 S
I'M VERY BUSY 5 9 7 8 8 6 4 (brown c)PRAT FLAVIEN 122 1.20 42% 1.40 0.55  
ANTARES 1 3 11 1½ 11 2½ 53 (morey e)DAVIS DYLAN 120 6.00 6.50  
FEARLESS SOLDIER 4 1 21 2½ 21 42 6 (pletcher t)SANTANA JR 120 6.00 7.40  
WICO (IRE) 6 5 4 4 4 5 7 (ward a)FRANCO MANUEL 122 10.00 27% 2.80 11.90  
1A  GRAND GIOMAR STEP (IRE) 9 6 54 65 6 8 8 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 122 1.20 0.55  
HARRINGTON 8 8 8 77 7 98 917½ (moubarak nader)CARMOUCHE K 122 15.00 28.50  
SCR  HEATHGUARD               (lerman s)GEROUX FLORENT 122 15.00    
SCR  MIDNIGHT TROUBLE               (walder peter )MCCARTHY TREVOR 122 6.00    
SCR  NOTAH               (terranova p)RIDER TBA 120 8.00    
SCR  WINTERS LION               (sharp joe)RIDER TBA 122 2.00    
 
SAR-9   07/22/2023 5940ft DIRT RC14 FAST Coaching Club American Oaks Purse ($500K) 3 F PT- 5:42
See original race card.
:243 :484 1:123 1:374   1:503   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WET PAINT 2 4 54 5 53 2 1¼ (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 121 2.00 53% 0.90 1.45 W
SACRED WISH 3 1 2 21 2½ 1 2¼ (weaver george)FRANCO MANUEL 121 10.00 10.80  
GAMBLING GIRL 4 3 43 4 32 3 3 (pletcher a)ORTIZ JR 121 2.50 21% 3.90 1.20 S
SHE'S LOOKIN LUCKY 5 2 1 11 1½ 4 4 (shirer a)CARMOUCHE K 121 10.00 5% 19.00 14.90  
SOUTHLAWN 1 5 32 3 42 59 513¾ (casse w)GEROUX FLORENT 121 4.50 4.40  
SCR  HOOSIER PHILLY               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 121 2.50    
 
SAR-10   07/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC10 FAST Allowance Purse ($149.5K) 3UP ALL PT- 6:17
See original race card.
:22 :451 :573     1:104   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ACCRETIVE 4 5 3½ 3½   1nk 1 (brown c)ORTIZ JR 124 1.60 50% 1.00 0.85 W
BOURBON BASH 1 3 5 2½   2nk 2 (lukas wayne)CARMOUCHE K 120 15.00 10.10  
DAUFUSKIE ISLAND 3 1 2½ 1½   31 3 (rodriguez rud)MCCARTHY TREVOR 124 2.00 21% 3.80 1.95 S
A LA CARTE 5 4 42 5   4 4 (mott william )ALVARADO JUNIOR 124 8.00 8% 11.20 4.10  
BEZOS 2 2 1½ 4   56 513½ (goberdhan cha)MARTINEZ R 124 50.00 27.25  
SCR  TALKIN PHAROAH               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 118 10.00    
SCR  VICTORIOUS WAVE               (englehart chris)FRANCO MANUEL 124 15.00    
SCR  WHAT'S UP BRO               (klesaris robert )LEZCANO JOSE 120 20.00    
SCR  WHO HOO THATS ME               (abreu r)DAVIS DYLAN 124 5.00    
 
SAR-11   07/22/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($60K) 4UP ALL PT- 6:52
See original race card.
:221 :45 :571     1:10   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  SAINT SELBY 9 1 2nk 11   1nk 1 (atras rob)CARMOUCHE K 118 15.00 5% 19.00 10.60 W
SEVEN NATION ARMY 4 3 3 21   2nk 2 (diodoro roberti)ORTIZ JR 118 4.00 18% 4.60 3.90 P
SENOR JOBIM 5 4 7 5   4 3 (jacobson david)FRANCO MANUEL 118 8.00 12.70  
CATCHYASOON 1 2 1nk 3   3 4 (rice linda)PRAT FLAVIEN 120 3.50 45% 1.20 1.55  
DIGITAL FUTURE 6 5 4 46   510¾ 513¼ (handal raymond)DAVIS DYLAN 120 8.00 6.10  
JUST CALL RAY 2 8 5 69   613¾ 615 (hiles jeff)SANTANA JR 120 8.00 8% 11.50 5.80  
PRINCE JAMES 7 6 64 712   714¾ 715½ (rodriguez gustav)LEZCANO JOSE 118 15.00 12.40  
AIR SHOW 3 9 910¾ 813   817¾ 817¼ (rodriguez rud)ALVARADO JUNIOR 120 15.00 27.75  
10  STEINBECK 8 7 8 913½   923¾ 925¾ (cash l)TORRES A 115 15.00 5% 19.00 21.60  
SCR  BRONX BOMBER               (kantarmaci mertka)CANCEL ERIC 118 30.00    
SCR  FLINT RIDGE               (rice linda)ORTIZ L 123 3.50    
SCR  SCILLY CAY               (reynolds patrick)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 6.00    
SCR  WHERE PARADISE LAY               (downing willi)MCCARTHY TREVOR 118 10.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.