Handicappers' Race Results

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Ellis Park
Sunday - July 16, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (4/2/1) 3 $2.00 $6.00 4 1 1 $2.52 $2.52  
ELP-2   Win (2/1/3) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 1 $4.66 $4.66  
ELP-3   Win (5/3/12/11/8) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $14.12  
ELP-4   Win (7/5/4/3) 4 $2.00 $8.00 7 1 1 $9.14 $9.14 1.14
ELP-5   Win (7/2/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 0 $8.86  
ELP-6   Win (9/7/2/11/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 9 1 1 $10.38 $10.38 0.38
ELP-7   Win (3/1/2/6/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00 3 1 1 $7.72 $7.72  
ELP-8   Win (2/1/10/14/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 7 1 0 $14.26  
ELP-9   Win (1/12/3/6/7) 5 $2.00 $10.00 6 1 1 $12.02 $12.02 2.02

Simulator Race results

 
ELP-1   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($10K) Purse ($19K) 3UP ALL PT-12:45
See original race card.
:233 :47 1:121 1:25   1:382   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PUNCTUALITY 3 2 32 32 1 15 110¾ (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 0.40 43% 1.30 0.26 W
SECRET EDGE 4 5 5 56 4 3 210¾ (hancock ja)RODRIGUEZ A 119 5.00 4.02  
CAMP GRAY 2 1 21 21 2 25 313¾ (foley greg)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 20% 4.00 13.58 S
LEFT POCKET MONEY 1 4 44 45 5 410½ 415¼ (pittman bonnie)NAVAS YOEL 117 15.00 14% 6.20 26.39  
BEAU DAY 6 3 11 11 3 515½ 530¼ (hancock jack )MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 20.00 10.44  
ALPHA LEA 5 6 635½ 636 634½ 635½ 651¼ (howard maryanne)BAYS BROOKE 108 20.00 32.45  
SCR  MOON OVER DUBAI               (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 8.00    
 
ELP-2   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
See original race card.
:241 :472 1:12 1:242   1:373   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
INTREPID HEART 2 1 42 32 1nk 12 1½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 123 1.60 36% 1.80 1.33 W
W W CRAZY 1 2 31 4 42 22 2½ (becker scot)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 123 6.00 31% 2.20 7.01 P
DIXIE DRAWL 4 3 54 5 54 5 3 (cash l)BEJARANO R 123 8.00 6.06  
NEPOTISM 3 5 2½ 2½ 31 4 4 (scherer mari)HERNANDEZ J 123 10.00 11% 7.90 4.12  
SPRINKLEHEAD 5 4 1½ 1½ 2nk 3 58 (barkley jason)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 5.00 2.09  
SCR  MOBSTER GUN               (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 123 2.00    
 
ELP-3   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 F PT- 1:43
See original race card.
:214 :451 :564     1:024   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SHE FEELS PRETTY 5 10 8 78   3 1¼ (devaux cherie)LANERIE J 119 12.00 6.06  
MYA'S HALO 2 4 1½ 1nk   13 2¼ (kenneally eddie)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 21% 3.80 3.04 P
WONDER WAVE (IRE) 4 8 5 5   6 3 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 4.32  
12  FANCY LOOKER 10 7 44 43   4 4 (maker micha)TORRES A 119 5.00 14% 6.40 14.29  
10  MAGHRA (IRE) 8 2 6 6   7 5 (walsh brenda)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 3.49  
TWO HEARTED 3 5 3 3   54 6 (matejka pavel)MACHADO LUAN 119 4.50 43% 1.30 13.52  
WINSOME BEAUTY 7 3 2½ 2nk   23 77 (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 15.00 11.47  
STAR PERFORMANCE 6 6 10 1010¾   9 88 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00 5% 19.00 9.24  
LADY OF DEVON 1 11 7 8   8 99 (margolis stephen )COHEN DAVID 119 8.00 22.93  
11  DON'T BRING CRAZY 9 9 11 1112¼   1010¾ 1010 (o'neill doug)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 5% 19.00 28.43  
15  MASHKA 11 1 98 910¼   1115¾ 1127 (matejka pavel)NAVAS YOEL 112 20.00 38.23  
SCR  EMANON               (corrigan jim)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
SCR  FINAL DRAFT               (casse mark)TORRES A 119 10.00    
SCR  LUCKY LADY SADIE               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 12.00    
SCR  SCARE               (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00    
SCR  TIANMA               (o'neill doug)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
SCR  WHITE DOVE               (walden willi)CORRALES GERARDO 119 15.00    
 
ELP-4   07/16/2023 4290ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:13
See original race card.
:221 :454 1:104     1:172   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
COEXIST 7 1 43 31   1½ 1 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 118 2.50 33% 2.00 3.57 W
CHARLEY RUDE 5 4 3 1½   2½ 2 (mccarthy michael)CHUAN MARTIN 122 5.00 28% 2.60 1.49 P
HAMMERDONHAPPINESS 4 6 7 6   46 3 (contreras c)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 120 6.00 15% 5.80 9.50 S
FAST GAL 6 3 54 54   5 49 (porter michael)COURT K 118 6.00 21.56  
TAMARA'S WAY 1 5 21 41   3 511¼ (foster eric)CORRALES GERARDO 120 3.00 4.67  
COLORATURA 3 2 11 2½   6 621 (caramori caio)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 6.00 5% 19.00 5.03  
HALO OF FIRE 2 7 65 7   710½ 721¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 7.94  
 
ELP-5   07/16/2023 6600ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:45
See original race card.
:251 :51 1:152 1:393   2:022   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ANGLOPHILE 5 4 45 4 5 5 1½ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 4.00 3.43  
MOUNT RUNDLE 6 54 56 6 4 1nk 2½ (nihei mich)RODRIGUEZ A 118 3.50 12% 7.50 2.61 P
SOLID COUNTRY GOLD 3 3 32 32 31 4¼ 32 (catalano way)HERNANDEZ J 123 5.00 5.46  
KING CURLIN 2 2 22 2 2nk 2nk 4 (vanden brittan)EMIGH A 123 5.00 20% 3.90 2.32  
CARNIVORE 1 1 12 1 1nk 3.2 5 (shorter aaron)BEJARANO R 123 15.00 16.30  
JARREAU 7 7 6 5 7 6 6 (maker micha)TORRES A 123 1.60 47% 1.10 4.87  
SMOKEY LEE 4 65 7 7 6 7 713½ (cundiff waylon)NAVAS YOEL 116 30.00 5% 19.00 35.96  
SCR  FAMILY MAN               (medina rober)HERNANDEZ J 123 2.00    
 
ELP-6   07/16/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($40K) 2 F PT- 3:18
See original race card.
:23 :47 :592     1:121   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STAIRSTEP TOHEAVEN 8 3 2½ 1½   21 1hd (sims p)BEJARANO R 119 3.50 41% 1.40 4.19 W
SHIMMERING ALLURE 2 4 1½ 2½   11 2hd (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 8.00 4.05  
NAUGHTY MISS 7 8 10 64   45 3 (roberson dennis)LANERIE J 119 15.00 24.73  
UP ON THE EDGE 6 5 4 9   56 44 (brisset rodo)CORRALES GERARDO 119 4.00 18% 4.50 3.36  
CLASSY'N CONNECTED 4 7 53 42   3 5 (drury jr)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 4.50 6.17  
WEE BIT O MISCHIEF 1 9 9 8   78 68 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 17% 4.80 5.37  
MO TWILIGHT 5 10 8 76   68 7 (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 8.00 8.00  
10  NOSHUGFORPOP 9 2 7 53   911 817½ (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00 18.86  
11  BEEN REAL BUSY 10 1 3 32   810 921¼ (mott riley)TORRES A 119 15.00 5% 19.00 22.20  
ENTICING SUNSET 3 6 63 1010¼   1017 1028¼ (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 20.00 5% 19.00 17.93  
SCR  ANNAMARIA               (ortiz alexa)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
 
ELP-7   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC11 FIRM Pea Patch Purse ($100K) 3 F PT- 3:50
See original race card.
:211 :441 :554     1:014   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DARING DO 3 2 43 43   21 11 (ward wesle)RODRIGUEZ A 118 4.50 44% 1.30 2.86 W
TWICE AS SWEET 2 6 75 6   32 21 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 118 8.00 14% 6.30 4.64 P
AMERICAN APPLE 1 7 1½ 1   11 3 (leitch danie)CORRALES GERARDO 118 3.00 16% 5.40 1.77 S
ERNA 5 9 97 9   76 44 (matejka pavel)BEJARANO R 118 20.00 14.63  
CONDENSATION 6 4 6 8   55 54 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00 5% 19.00 12.31  
TWIRLED 8 3 2½ 2   4 6 (asmussen st)TORRES A 118 4.50 5.42  
MORNIN' BOSS 7 5 5 5   66 7 (hernandez rey)PETERSON FERRIN 118 20.00 56.37  
FOOLISH 4 8 86 7   8 8 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 118 15.00 41.60  
11  ZOOM ERIN 9 1 31 3   9 912 (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 5% 19.00 11.35  
SCR  ISABEL ALEXANDRA (IRE)               (delgado gusta)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 12.00    
SCR  LILIESFORMILLIE               (hamilton sarah)GILLIGAN JACK 118 10.00    
 
ELP-8   07/16/2023 5280ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:22
See original race card.
:231 :462 1:112 1:242   1:37   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
DAI VERNON 6 12 1212½ 12 4 1nk 1 (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 6.13  
11  SMILE MON 10 7 31 2½ 12 2nk 2 (romans dale)CHUAN MARTIN 118 5.00 6.63  
SINGLE DOT YAHT 1 1 6 8 710 5 3 (drury thomas)HERNANDEZ J 118 8.00 23% 3.40 3.89 S
10  FEAR OF UNION 9 9 9 9 5 4 49 (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 4.50 14% 6.20 5.54  
TEXAS PRIDE 4 11 1112 11 66 66 510¼ (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 118 20.00 56.09  
12  SMOKE WAGON 11 8 4 32 22 3 610¼ (engler jeff)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 8.00 14.18  
BOONE'S PATH 8 5 1nk 1½ 32 7 717 (young terry)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 124 20.00 5% 19.00 31.61  
14  SPEED INSTITUTE 12 10 7 7 1113¼ 1119¼ 839½ (miller f)MORALES EDGAR 118 20.00 6% 14.70 17.25  
CUSP 2 2 2nk 42 810¼ 816¼ 940½ (lobo paulo)RODRIGUEZ A 113 2.50 33% 2.00 2.03  
HOLY MOLY ABRAHAM 3 4 8 6 1010¾ 918¼ 1043¾ (lovell dennis)MIRANDA ROGELIO 118 30.00 73.50  
TOWN BARBER 5 6 10 10 1216¼ 1221¼ 1147 (mott riley)GUTIERREZ REYLU 118 15.00 26.49  
DENIER 7 3 52 5 910¾ 1018¾ 1248¾ (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 15.00 27.28  
SCR  BOBWHITE BOBBY               (von d)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 15.00    
SCR  CATEGORY TEN               (mott riley)TORRES A 118 20.00    
SCR  CHIRON               (bush s)ELLIOTT JANE 124 10.00    
 
ELP-9   07/16/2023 3630ft TURF RC10 FIRM Allowance Purse ($74K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:55
See original race card.
:213 :44 :554     1:02   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
L J'S EMMA 6 5 6 5   22 1½ (kenneally eddie)LANERIE J 118 4.00 9% 9.60 5.01 W
HIDEKI 1 9 9 67   4 2½ (walsh d)BEJARANO R 122 3.50 33% 2.00 2.18 P
EMPIRE OF MY OWN 5 3 1 1   12 3½ (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 25.00 40.36  
DEVINE CHARGER 7 4 7 8   65 4 (blair jordan)GUTIERREZ REYLU 122 10.00 5% 19.00 9.52  
11  RUTHLESS RUA 9 2 2 2   33 5 (arnold r)CHUAN MARTIN 118 6.00 5.43  
13  ALWAYS AT EASE 11 10 10 1011¼   98 6 (lynch brian)TORRES A 118 12.00 24.57  
CHARRIERE 8 8 5 44   5 7 (mckeever andrew)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 20.00 26.65  
FOUR DAWN 2 6 43 7   76 8 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 122 15.00 15.07  
ONLY KIDDING 3 7 8 9   10 9 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 122 4.50 12% 7.30 6.50  
UP TO SOMETHING 4 11 11 1112¾   1110½ 10 (oliver vic)RODRIGUEZ A 113 20.00 38.81  
12  SHANNON 10 1 3 3   8 118 (lynch a)SAEZ GABRIEL 122 6.00 20% 4.00 5.20  
SCR  BUTTONS               (sharp joe)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
SCR  DESIGNED BY KITTEN               (romans dale)MACHADO LUAN 122 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.