Handicappers' Racing Form

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Ellis Park
Sunday - August 27, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bets

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

ELP-1   Win (6/1/2) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-2   Win (3/5/6) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-3   Win (3/6/5) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-4   Win (7/8/9) 3 $2.00 $6.00
ELP-5   Win (4/9/11/8) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-6   Win (6/2/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-7   Win (4/7/9/10/11) 5 $2.00 $10.00
ELP-8   Win (5/1/3/2) 4 $2.00 $8.00
ELP-9   Win (4/1/6/13) 4 $2.00 $8.00

Simulator Race Cards
IMPORTANT: Refresh our race cards before every race for possible scratches.

 
ELP-1   08/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($37K) 3UP M/F PT-12:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
CONDIMENT GIRL Jul13 Jun17 May04 Mar09 Nov18 (diodoro rob)TORRES A 122 2.00 19% 4.30    
GOLDBLOODED Jul02 May20 Jan20 Dec31 Nov16 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 3.00 6% 16.90    
SCR  JACKIE'S SPIRIT Jul08 Jun15 May12 Apr08 Mar26 (vaccarezza carl)TALAMO JOSEPH 118 12.00 27% 2.80    
MOON MAGIC CHRISSY Jun01 May11 Apr14 Mar04 Feb11 (danner doug)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00    
SPARKLE OF HOPE Jun11 Sep23 Jul03 Jun08 May30 (foley greg)BEJARANO R 122 4.00    
EMPIRE OF MY OWN Aug12 Jul16 Jun11 Apr08 Mar02 (hartman chri)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 2.50 21% 3.80    
 
ELP-2   08/27/2023 5940ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:14
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
PALACE KITTEN Jul15 Jun15 May04 Mar30 Feb18 (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 123 2.50    
COURAGEOUSLY Jul30 Jul19 May13 Mar02 Feb04 (capps a)MIRANDA ROGELIO 123 12.00    
SUGOI Aug11 Jun18 Mar25 Mar04 Jan28 (engler jeff)LANERIE J 123 2.00 15% 5.70    
CODE RUNNER Jul20 Jun10 May20 Mar10 Jan20 (caramori caio)MACHADO LUAN 123 8.00    
KAZAN (IRE) Aug12 Jul02 Jun23 Jun04 May06 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J null   11% 8.00    
MINE OWN STAR Jul30 Jun24 May31 Sep25 Aug24 (cano muno)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 12.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  KOUFAX Jun30 Jun02 Mar16 Jan28 Dec21 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 123 5.00    
SCR  COUSIN LARRY Jul19 May28 May11 Mar26 Feb25 (lovell michelle)SAEZ GABRIEL 123 8.00    
SCR  CALL OF HONOR Jul19 Apr19 Oct31 Oct11 Apr23 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 123 6.00 51% 1.00    
 
ELP-3   08/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($25K) Purse ($34K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:43
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
POLE SETTER Jul07 Apr22 Mar11 Feb04 Jan14 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 5.00    
DARK TIMBER Aug03 Jul13 Jun15 May04 Mar24 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 122 6.00    
SAMURAI PRINCE Aug19 Jul15 Jun07 May17 Apr19 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 122 2.50 60% 0.70    
AERONAUT Jun10 May19 Apr07 Mar15 Feb18 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00    
NEPOTISM Jul16 Mar09 Jan14 Nov27 Nov02 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 8.00 5% 19.00    
SUMMER SPLASH Jun18 Apr20 Feb21 Jan28 Jan05 (gibson dewa)TORRES A 122 6.00 7% 13.20    
SCR  HERD IMMUNITY Jun18 May03 Mar24 Mar03 Jan15 (tomlinson a)GRAHAM J 122 10.00 8% 12.30    
UPSTRIKER Jun30 May25 Apr15 Apr02 Feb26 (navarrete a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 3.00    
 
ELP-4   08/27/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:13
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
VIVA VOCE Jul31 Jul14       (mott riley)BESCHIZZA ADAM 119 15.00    
SCR  THANKS FRANK Aug05 Jun29       (von donni)GARCIA MARTIN 119 10.00    
ASAASY         (pletcher to)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
QUIET RUSH Jul30         (arnold r)CHUAN MARTIN 119 20.00    
PLAY IT LOUD         (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 8.00    
SCR  BRIE'S MISSION Jul31         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
DEPICTION Jul31         (devaux cher)TORRES A 119 3.00 28% 2.60    
SNEAD         (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 119 3.50 10% 8.80    
KOBE W         (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
10  COASTAL BRINK Aug05 Jun18 Jun08     (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 20.00    
11  KITTY HAWK (GB) Jul30         (oliver victoria)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SCR  J T'S IMAGINATION Jul31         (sharp joe)MURRILL MITCHELL 119 20.00    
13  ONE RED CENT Jul31 Jul15       (jazdzewski)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00    
SCR  MANDATORY MEETING         (blair jordan)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 15.00    
SCR  POLAR BEAR PLUNGE Jul15         (casse mark)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00    
SCR  BRITISH SEA Jul14         (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 1.60 36% 1.80    
 
ELP-5   08/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 2:45
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MUAZARAH         (pletcher to)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00    
SCR  BIG BANK         (leonard george )TALAMO JOSEPH 119 20.00    
SCR  UNREASONABLE         (arnold r)GRAHAM J 119 8.00    
SHAKIN LOOSE Aug06 Jul01 Jun17     (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 5.00 31% 2.20    
SCR  BLACK IRON         (asmussen steven )MACHADO LUAN 119 12.00    
SCR  MOONLIGHT ROAD         (wilkes r)NAVAS YOEL 112 15.00    
BURGUNDY ROYALE Jul21         (lukas wayne)SAEZ GABRIEL 119 20.00    
KNOW WHO YOU ARE         (cowans d)ACHARD ALEX 119 15.00 5% 19.00    
THE PROCESS         (devaux cher)TORRES A 119 3.50 24% 3.20    
10  STORMIN LOVE         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
11  SEARCY         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00 23% 3.30    
 
ELP-6   08/27/2023 5610ft TURF RC7 FIRM Claiming ($30K) Purse ($32K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:18
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MADISON LUVS DUKE Jul14 Jun24 Jun02 May12 Apr26 (danner kelsey)BESCHIZZA ADAM 123 4.50 13% 6.50    
MUCHO MOJO Aug04 Jul14 May24 Apr01 Mar17 (foster eri)RODRIGUEZ A 118 5.00 28% 2.60    
MOMS MOON Jul19 May31 May06 Mar25 Feb04 (arnold r)GILLIGAN JACK 123 12.00    
HEY BOSS Jul22 Jun10 Apr02 Feb17 Feb01 (van thomas)BEJARANO R 123 20.00 5% 19.00    
TRES SOLES Jul02 Jun16 May12 Apr16 Mar12 (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 118 4.00 38% 1.70    
NAVY SOUL Jul21 Jun15 May04 Apr18 Aug30 (pittman bonnie)MORALES EDGAR 123 30.00    
HOUSED Feb02 Dec03 Oct29 Sep22 Aug27 (davis christ)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00    
GET THROUGH Jul31 Jun02 May05 Mar25 Mar19 (vanden berg)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 125 8.00    
10  COALMINER'S KITTEN Aug06 Jul16 Apr20 Apr01 Feb08 (quinonez max)GRAHAM J 118 12.00    
SCR  HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) Jul20 Jun24 May29 Apr13 Mar09 (asmussen st)TORRES A null      
 
ELP-7   08/27/2023 3960ft DIRT RC5 FAST Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 2 ALL PT- 3:50
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
STRUCTURED         (asmussen steven )MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
SCR  CASH ONLY         (walden wil)RODRIGUEZ A 114 20.00    
LOMA PALOMA         (o'neill doug)LANERIE J 119 10.00    
AWESOME ROAD         (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO 119 2.50 39% 1.60    
EVENING NEWS         (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 10.00    
SCR  BEYOND STOKED         (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00    
REMEMBER THE FEAR Aug06         (catalano wa)TORRES A 119 8.00 28% 2.60    
SCR  PRETTY BOY RED         (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
STRONGHOLD         (d'amato philip)TALAMO JOSEPH 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
10  CHRYSO ALOGO         (cox h)CHUAN MARTIN 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
11  TIME SONG         (pletcher to)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 6.00 5% 19.00    
 
ELP-8   08/27/2023 5610ft TURF RC11 FIRM Ellis Park Turf Purse ($125K) 3UP M/F PT- 4:22
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
SAHLABIYA Aug05 Jun24 Apr28 Mar12 Jul24 (walsh brendan )BESCHIZZA ADAM 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
BIPARTISANSHIP (GB) Jul22 Jun18 May20 Apr21 Dec31 (motion graha)LANDEROS CHRIS null   5% 19.00    
MOUFFY Jun21 May13 Apr22 Feb20 Jan08 (thomas jona)ESQUIVEL EMMANUEL 122 15.00 5% 19.00    
SCR  WAVE OF GOODNESS Aug10 Jul20 May21 Jan21 Dec26 (hernandez ar)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00    
LOVELY PRINCESS Jul08 May27 Apr22 Nov25 Oct27 (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 122 3.00 13% 6.50    
TASWEYA Jul19 Jun21 May09 Nov13 Oct20 (walsh p)CANNON DECLAN 122 20.00    
ARM CANDY (IRE) Aug06 Jun15 May21 Apr21 Apr01 (walsh brend)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 10.00    
MISREAD Jul23 Jun25 Jun02 May14 Oct07 (drury jr)MORALES EDGAR 122 12.00    
SCR  KATE'S KINGDOM Jul23 Jun04 Mar25 Feb25 Jan14 (walden william)GILLIGAN JACK 122 6.00 56% 0.80    
10  DEALING JUSTICE Jul23 Jun09 Apr21 Mar02 Jan14 (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 122 20.00    
11  JUNCTURE (GB) Jul08 May29 Apr21     (cox h)CORRALES GERARDO null      
 
ELP-9   08/27/2023 5280ft TURF RC5 FIRM Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($70K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:55
  Past Performances   M/L W/P B/E F/O
ROYAL SALUTE Jul23 Jun22 Dec10 Oct15   (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 118 6.00 11% 7.90    
RAISE HIGH         (oliver victoria)CHUAN MARTIN 118 15.00    
ORBI ONE Jul23 Jun22 May25 May11 Aug06 (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 8.00    
SOYBEAN MAN Jun30 May28 May06 Apr15 Mar18 (moquett e)BEJARANO R 118 3.50 20% 4.10    
NOW THAT ICAN ROCK Jun22 May21 Apr20 Mar25 Feb17 (michael brian)COURT K 118 12.00    
CUSP Jul16 May27       (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 6.00 5% 19.00    
GUIGUI Feb02 Sep07       (asmussen ste)HERNANDEZ J 118 20.00    
TOWN BARBER Jul16         (mott riley)GARCIA MARTIN 118 30.00    
FAYETTE SPIRIT Jun17 Feb18 Jan07 Sep30   (medina robe)TORRES A 118 8.00    
SCR  MR MCGREGOR Jul02 Jun02 Apr14 Mar18 Aug13 (mott i)GRAHAM J 118 3.00 43% 1.30    
SCR  GUADALAJARA Jul30 Feb18 Jan21     (stewart dallas)BESCHIZZA ADAM 118 20.00    
12  SPEED INSTITUTE Aug05 Jul16 Jun23 Oct21 Sep17 (miller jerom)MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00    
13  TRICOLOUR Aug06 Jul21 Jul07 Jun21 May30 (miller kenny)MORALES EDGAR 124 30.00 5% 19.00    
14  CROSSING Aug01 May26 May11 Mar12 Jan27 (lauer micha)TORRES A 118 20.00    
SCR  BATTLE BORN Aug01 Apr22 Mar04 Jan26 Dec28 (king l)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 20.00    
SCR  GREAT BARRIER Jul30 Oct23       (ortiz john )ARRIETA FRANCISCO 118 20.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.