Handicappers' Race Results

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Keeneland
Thursday - October 19, 2023
Simulator Virtual Bet Results

Wager Pick Tot Bet Bet Winning Crct Win Pay Pay Profit/
Type Numbers Tkts Unit Amt Numbers Res Tkts Unit Amt Loss

KEE-1   Win (3/4/7) 3 $2.00 $6.00 2 1 0 $4.26  
KEE-2   Win (9/3/4/5) 4 $2.00 $8.00 5 1 1 $21.16 $21.16 13.16
KEE-3   Win (3/7/1/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 1 1 1 $9.54 $9.54 1.54
KEE-4   Win (5/3/6/4) 4 $2.00 $8.00 6 1 1 $10.16 $10.16 2.16
KEE-5   Win (11/5/2/6/9) 5 $2.00 $10.00 2 1 1 $18.66 $18.66 8.66
KEE-6   Win (3/5/4) 3 $2.00 $6.00 1 1 0 $34.86  
KEE-7   Win (10/1/3/8/4) 5 $2.00 $10.00 4 1 1 $9.34 $9.34  
KEE-8   Win (4/3/2/9/5) 5 $2.00 $10.00 11 1 0 $8.28  
KEE-9   Win (4/9) 2 $2.00 $4.00 10 1 0 $10.68  

Simulator Race results

 
KEE-1   10/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($20K) Purse ($44K) 3UP ALL PT- 1:00
See original race card.
:222 :463 :584     1:122   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
WHAT'S UP BRO 2 1 1½ 1   13 1 (rivelli larr)LOVEBERRY JARETH 120 4.00 1.13  
RAYMOND 4 4 3 2   23 2 (fletcher kevin)MACHADO LUAN 116 8.00 28% 2.60 9.03 P
HEALING WATERS 3 2 4 55   36 35 (walden wil)SANTANA JR 118 3.00 42% 1.40 2.98 S
CATIPARI 5 7 6 66   46 4 (navarrete a)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 30.00 40.59  
FABRICATOR 1 5 7 7   7 5 (campbell joel)GRAHAM J 123 20.00 36.96  
LUCKY DUDE 6 6 5 45   5 6 (johnston lane)QUINONEZ ALONSO 121 6.00 5% 19.00 19.57  
10  MUST BE LOVE 7 3 2½ 32   6 718½ (pino v)SAEZ LUIS 121 2.50 2.67  
SCR  AIN'T STRAIGHT               (gorostieta ciri)GOMEZ AGUSTIN 121 20.00    
SCR  ALL JOKES ASIDE               (meah m)HEARD TYLER 118 20.00    
SCR  RUN RUN RAPIDASH               (kordenbrock m)LAGUNES GABRIEL 121 12.00    
 
KEE-2   10/19/2023 3960ft DIRT RC4 FAST Maiden Claimer ($150K) Purse ($69K) 2 F PT- 1:32
See original race card.
:223 :471 :593     1:124   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MA RAE'S GIRL 5 4 3 2nk   1 1 (o'neill doug)BEJARANO R 119 8.00 5% 19.00 9.58 W
IN GOOD TASTE 4 6 65 52   3 2 (cox h)GEROUX FLORENT 119 6.00 8% 11.50 2.20 P
CONTROLLED TEMPER 7 2 76 77   57 3 (stewart dall)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 4.50 42% 1.40 3.68 S
10  ADELEKE 8 3 1½ 1nk   2 4 (servis c)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 8.00 12.25  
CORKAGE FEE 6 1 43 4   45 5 (mccarthy michae)VELAZQUEZ R 119 10.00 11.33  
12  OCEAN BIRD 9 5 2½ 3½   68 618½ (casse norm)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 3.14  
SHESPUN 3 7 55 6   710 719½ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 119 3.50 28% 2.60 9.54  
IMPECCABLE TIMING 1 8 8 910¼   915 820¼ (engler jeff)ACHARD ALEX 119 20.00 46.96  
WINDY WALK 2 9 910 8   813 925¾ (davis christopher)SAEZ LUIS 119 15.00 16.43  
SCR  BACKWOODS BARBIE               (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 119 12.00    
SCR  CITY SHACK               (burdess terry)ORTIZ ALVIN 119 30.00    
SCR  GLORIETTE               (colebrook ben)MACHADO LUAN 119 10.00    
SCR  TAPPIN INTO GENIUS               (leitch dan)RODRIGUEZ A 119 30.00    
 
KEE-3   10/19/2023 4290ft DIRT RC9 FAST Starter Allowance ($50K) Purse ($57K) 3UP M/F PT- 2:04
See original race card.
:222 :462 1:114     1:184   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MISCHIEVOUS GAL 1 7 4 41   1 1¾ (diodoro ro)SANTANA JR 118 5.00 7% 12.90 3.77 W
STORY HOUR 6 1 3.2 2nk   3 2¾ (medina rober)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 6.00 2.50  
STYLE 8 8 8 7   6 33 (campbell joel)GRAHAM J 121 15.00 20.05  
CONDIMENT GIRL 7 3 2nk 1nk   2 43 (diodoro rob)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 4.00 9% 10.50 7.06  
HOME PORT 3 5 6 64   7 5 (rider m)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50 47% 1.10 8.00  
TELL ME WHEN 2 4 5 5   4 6 (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 118 8.00 9.44  
GIRL AFRAID 5 2 1nk 3½   5 7 (falcone n)SAEZ LUIS 118 2.00 2.49  
STORMY EMPIRE 4 6 7 8   811¼ 822½ (schultz lindsa)TORRES A 121 20.00 6% 16.40 31.03  
 
KEE-4   10/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($32K) Purse ($61K) 3UP ALL PT- 2:36
See original race card.
:234 :474 1:13 1:393   1:461   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
HE'S GOT THIS 6 4 5 44 4 2nk 1¾ (hartman chri)CORRALES GERARDO 122 6.00 14% 6.20 4.08 W
HEARTBREAKER 7 1 2nk 1nk 1 1nk 2¾ (romans dale)GARCIA MARTIN 122 6.00 2.77  
EXPENSIVE CUT 8 5 4 33 32 33 3 (mosco robert)ROCCO S 122 5.00 6.03  
BIRD KING 3 6 6 6 5 57 411 (pino michae)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 4.00 19% 4.10 3.29  
WHAT A COUNTRY 1 7 8 7 6 6 511¼ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 15.00 21.52  
SOUL COAXING 2 2 1nk 2nk 2 4 612½ (robertson mc)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 8.00 6.31  
BEEALEA 5 8 7 8 710½ 712 720¼ (rodriguez ed)MURRILL MITCHELL 124 3.00 39% 1.60 6.03  
GITA'S LAD 4 3 32 5 813 819 846½ (young r)MOJICA O 122 20.00 5% 19.00 30.99  
SCR  SUGOI               (bahena ismael)CHUAN MARTIN 122 10.00    
 
KEE-5   10/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 3:08
See original race card.
:22 :454 :571     1:031   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
MAKEUP 2 5 11 1½   1 14 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 4.50 21% 3.80 8.33 W
BEAUTIFUL MISCHIEF 7 2 21 2½   2 24 (kenneally eddie)SAEZ LUIS 119 10.00 12.72  
SHORE WAR 8 7 53 5   54 3 (arnold r)GARCIA MARTIN 119 15.00 7.40  
11  TWO SIP SALLY 11 3 42 31   33 4 (walsh brenda)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 2.50 29% 2.50 2.12  
LYRICAL PARDON 3 4 3 4   4 5 (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 20.00 44.83  
INTO STARS 5 1 9 95   6 6 (cox h)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 3.50 22% 3.50 3.76  
10  LITTLE MISS MUNNY 10 10 10 11   10 78 (lynch a)CANNON DECLAN 119 15.00 25.17  
12  FANTASTICAL 12 12 8 84   98 8 (sharp joe)VELAZQUEZ R 119 20.00 37.83  
SOTONA 1 8 63 7   7 99 (calhoun willi)GUTIERREZ REYLU 119 15.00 69.69  
DR. RAY D. 6 9 11 10   1110¼ 1011¼ (maker michae)CORRALES GERARDO 119 8.00 8% 10.90 5.45  
SAVE THE MISCHIEF 9 6 7 6   8 1111½ (wilkes r)LANDEROS CHRIS 119 12.00 5% 19.00 10.84  
MISS TAPTRESS 4 11 12 12   1210¾ 1212 (lightner mary)LANERIE J 119 30.00 43.90  
SCR  HAMBLE               (mccarthy michael)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 10.00    
SCR  HAPPY BAYTOWN               (mcentee paul)ELLIOTT JANE 119 15.00    
SCR  PROGENY               (weaver george)SAEZ LUIS 119 12.00    
SCR  WALK STREET               (oliver victoria)BEJARANO R 119 20.00    
 
KEE-6   10/19/2023 4620ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($50K) Purse ($75K) 3UP ALL PT- 3:40
See original race card.
:23 :464 1:121     1:251   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LUCKY BOSS 1 7 5 63   1nk 1 (hernandez ar)CORRALES GERARDO 121 10.00 16.43  
SHOOTERS SHOOT 4 6 6 4   2nk 2 (diodoro robe)GAFFALIONE TYLER 121 2.50 10% 9.50 1.68 P
MAILMAN MONEY 2 1 2nk 3   4 3 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 121 8.00 1.71  
THE QUEENS JULES 3 4 3.2 52   5 4 (van thoma)GEROUX FLORENT 121 5.00 53% 0.90 8.70  
GROUP EIGHTEEN 7 5 1nk 11   3 511¼ (williamson b)LOVEBERRY JARETH 121 10.00 8.87  
UPSTRIKER 5 2 4¾ 21   6 616 (maker j)SAEZ LUIS 121 3.50 14% 6.10 6.05  
SPEIGHT AND MALICE 6 3 7 7   7 718½ (caramori caio)GUTIERREZ REYLU 121 30.00 20.65  
SCR  CALL ME MIDNIGHT               (desormeaux j)MURRILL MITCHELL 121 12.00    
SCR  DERBY DATE               (contreras cipria)MACHADO LUAN 121 4.50    
 
KEE-7   10/19/2023 5610ft TURF RC10 GOOD Allowance Purse ($110K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:12
See original race card.
:223 :47 1:113 1:36   1:422   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
LINCOLN HIGHWAY 4 5 3 52 43 1nk 1¼ (oliver victoria)SAEZ LUIS 118 10.00 6% 16.10 3.67 W
MACKILLOP 1 1 9 9 10 4 2¼ (wilkes ian )LEPAROUX R 122 5.00 18% 4.40 8.52 P
CLYDE'S GOT A GUN 3 9 10 10 11 6 31 (pitts helen)MOJICA O 120 4.50 15% 5.70 6.50 S
SIR LONDON 6 3 21 3½ 21 2nk 4 (motion gra)GAFFALIONE TYLER 122 6.00 5.52  
REDEMPTION TIME 9 10 74 7 8 7 5 (calhoun wil)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 122 20.00 34.85  
TEN DAYS LATER 8 12 12 11 9 3 6 (mcpeek g)LANERIE J 118 5.00 13% 6.70 12.86  
EL AHIJADO 7 11 11 12 12 8 7 (guerrero sal)TORRES A 122 50.00 ######  
10  AMERICAN DIAMOND 10 6 5 6 6 9 8 (joseph a)VELAZQUEZ R 122 4.00 27% 2.80 4.15  
ENDPOINT 5 4 6 8 7 107 9 (lobo h)CORRALES GERARDO 118 10.00 6.99  
12  TIVERTON (GB) 12 8 8 1nk 11 5 1010 (murphy conor)PRAT FLAVIEN 118 12.00 11.19  
MENDEL'S SECRET 2 2 11 2nk 3 11 1116½ (maker mich)SANTANA JR 118 15.00 14.57  
11  HARDY CHOICE 11 7 4 4 53 12 1218¼ (lynch brian )MURRILL MITCHELL 118 30.00 94.91  
SCR  DOUBLE CLUTCH               (arnold geor)LEPAROUX R 122 10.00    
SCR  GRAND ASPEN               (pletcher a)SAEZ LUIS 122 2.50    
SCR  KARMA DIRECTOR               (reed r)CORRALES GERARDO 118 30.00    
SCR  SHERLOCK'S JEWEL               (mcgaughey c)CHEMINAUD VINCENT 118 12.00    
 
KEE-8   10/19/2023 5610ft DIRT RC7 FAST Claiming ($80K) Purse ($69K) 3UP ALL PT- 4:44
See original race card.
:234 :483 1:131 1:384   1:452   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
11  WINNEMAC AVENUE 11 9 21 21 1nk 13 1 (divito james)GAFFALIONE TYLER 118 8.00 3.14  
JR'S GIFT 4 2 7 6 53 3 2 (andrade hugo)CANUTO THIAGO 122 3.00 43% 1.30 6.28 P
DANCE SOME MO 3 3 11 11 2nk 23 3 (rosin w)QUINONEZ ALONSO 122 8.00 26% 2.90 9.18 S
BRIGHT SPARK 9 10 1111 11 118 78 49 (flint s)GRAHAM J 122 8.00 5% 19.00 8.17  
10  WASHINGTON'S UNION 10 11 5 42 31 5 511¾ (sims a)ACHARD ALEX 120 20.00 43.28  
GAMER 2 6 33 32 4 46 611¾ (asmussen ste)ASMUSSEN J 122 12.00 6% 14.90 12.88  
GLEN AIRY 7 7 8 74 6 68 712½ (sims philip )LOVEBERRY JARETH 118 15.00 27.00  
WINSTON WOLF 8 4 65 8 9 8 812¾ (oliver victoria)CANNON DECLAN 118 20.00 27.76  
PRINCELY 1 5 1010½ 108 108 10 916 (mcpeek kenn)LEPAROUX R 118 4.00 3.48  
HONED 6 1 4 5 7 11 1016¾ (mcpeek kenne)HERNANDEZ J 118 6.00 5.01  
FUNNY UNCLE 5 8 97 95 8 9 1116¾ (vance d)LANERIE J 118 12.00 5% 19.00 18.80  
SCR  FAST FALL               (hernandez javier)BEJARANO R 118 30.00    
 
KEE-9   10/19/2023 3630ft TURF RC5 GOOD Maiden Sp Wt Purse ($100K) 2 F PT- 5:16
See original race card.
:222 :452 :57     1:032   PP ST C1 C2 C3 STR FIN   M/L W/P B/E F/O
10  CLOUDWALKER 9 8 7 6   3 13 (walsh p)PRAT FLAVIEN 119 8.00 4.34  
CABERNEIGH 6 3 11 1½   1½ 23 (barker w)CANUTO THIAGO 119 30.00 48.12  
COPPERDROP 7 2 21 2½   2½ 3 (asmussen s)SANTANA JR 119 10.00 6.15  
JOKE MASTER 8 5 42 42   4 4 (maker michae)GAFFALIONE TYLER 119 12.00 5% 19.00 13.46  
SATIN BLUE 3 6 63 7   5 5 (sharp joe)SAEZ LUIS 119 8.00 5.30  
WONDER WAVE (IRE) 4 11 8 8   6 6 (lynch a)BEJARANO R 119 2.50 75% 0.30 3.07  
MODERN SOUND 2 7 127 11   10 77 (block chris)LEPAROUX R 119 6.00 6.71  
HAUNTRESS 5 12 10 9   8 8 (casse mark)VELAZQUEZ R 119 15.00 14.55  
11  UNMATCHED 10 1 5 53   9 911 (colebrook ben)ACHARD ALEX 119 30.00 48.26  
CHARM OF THE SONG 1 4 3 32   7 1011¾ (wilkes r)GEROUX FLORENT 119 4.00 8.23  
14  LUMINOUS RULER 12 9 11 12   1114¾ 1121¼ (barnett c)COURT K 119 30.00 61.52  
12  LOLA'S LIGHT 11 10 9 10   1217¼ 1229 (hartman chr)ARRIETA FRANCISCO 119 10.00 30.64  
SCR  DESTINY STAR               (hamm timothy)CORRALES GERARDO 119 3.00    
SCR  SHE'S A NATIVE               (holden darra)LOVEBERRY JARETH 119 30.00    
SCR  STREET VIEW               (weaver george)SAEZ LUIS 119 4.50    
SCR  TIPSY RUNNER               (amoss m)MORALES EDGAR 119 15.00    
 

 
  Labels:
  M/L

Morning Line. This is an indirect measure of the Win Probability of this entry as estimated by the Club Handicapper.

  W/P

Win Probability. This is the centerpiece of our technology that separates Thoroughbred Racing Simulator from other selection services. It is the probability that this entry will win the race, as calculated from the outcomes of simulations of the race. Use this to validate and augment your own handicapping.

  B/E

Break-Even Odds. This figure is approximated from the Win Probability. It is the minimum Win odds that should be accepted to make the entry a worthwhile Win bet. Disregard this figure for exotic bets, as the Win Probability in such bets depends on the compounded Win Probabilities of all the entries in the bet.

  F/O

Final Odds. Live track Win odds against which the B/E should eventually be compared to for Win bets.

 
  Two Groups of Contenders:
  Win Contenders
 

The entries in the first group are printed in bold. These are Win contenders and, by extension, also Place/Show contenders.

  Place/Show Contenders
 

The entries in the second group have a star under their (W/P) column. The Simulator estimates that these entries have generally low chances of winning, although some of them might actually be strong Win contenders but are disqualified from the first group because of their low expected Payout-On-Investment (POI). Whichever the case, these are good Place/Show contenders for exotic bets. Also, these entries may be promoted to replace scratched entries in the first group.

 
  Legal:
 

Copyright © 2019 Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. All rights reserved. All information herein is provided for the purpose of entertainment and education. This product is the proprietary property of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC and is licensed to one user. The reproduction, distribution or transfer of this product or the information contained therein is strictly prohibited without the written permission of Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC. The data from which this product is derived is generally accurate. However, errors and omissions may occur occasionally as a result of incorrect data received from other parties, mistakes in processing, and other causes. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors. Thoroughbred Racing Simulator LLC makes no warranties, representations or guarantees, expressed or implied, with respect to the results, outcomes or consequences from the use of this product including, but not limited to, any monetary or other losses.